AFC
Baltimore
The Ravens used the non-exclusive franchise tag on QB Lamar Jackson.
Why It Matters: In theory, Jackson’s 2023 (and beyond) team is now very much up in the air. Any team that signs him to an offer sheet would only have to spend two first-round picks if the Ravens don’t match it, two first-round picks that would become less valuable instantly when Jackson joins the team, as evidenced by his 45-16 career regular season win-loss record. Why this is only, in theory, is that five teams with long-term quarterback needs (Carolina, Atlanta, Washington, Miami, and Las Vegas) immediately, either directly through team sites or indirectly through media members, declared that they had no intention to pursue Jackson. Other teams could make a run at him - Detroit, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, New England, the Jets (assuming they don’t land Aaron Rodgers), and Tennessee are the betting market favorites to sign Jackson in the wake of those declarations - but the most likely outcome here is that Jackson plays for Baltimore in 2023 for a little over 32 million and we start this process over again next offseason. Todd Monken replaced Greg Roman as offensive coordinator for the Ravens, and Monken’s offenses have been very successful through the air, so Jackson’s fantasy outlook for next season will be improved no matter the outcome of this contract situation - assuming he doesn’t hold out for some or all of the season.
Jacksonville
The NFL has reinstated WR Calvin Ridley.
Why It Matters: Ridley will be a huge upgrade from Marvin Jones in an offense that lacked a true field stretcher who can win against a #1 corner near the sideline. Now they have one, which should unlock Trevor Lawrence’s upside in fantasy leagues. Ridley is going in the fourth round in early Underdog drafts (and ahead of Christian Kirk), which might be a little rich after such a long layoff from the game, but that is an indicator that we should be confident that this offense will be a rising tide that lifts the production of everyone in it. Ridley wrote a bracingly honest piece about himself at The Players’ Tribune that is worth your time if you are interested in learning more about him or the circumstances that led to his suspension. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke is looking like a genius for acquiring Ridley during last season for only a fifth-round pick this year and a conditional pick that will be between a second and fourth, depending on playing time and whether the Jaguars sign Ridley to another contract next year. Ridley has one year left on his current deal for a very reasonable price of a little over 11 million.
Kansas City
The Chiefs released EDGE Frank Clark.
Why It Matters: The Chiefs will eat 7.7 million in dead cap but open up 21 million in cap room with the release. Kansas City gave up a first- and second-round pick for Clark and signed him to a top-of-the-market contract in 2019. While Clark didn’t shine in the regular season, he was a top playoff performer, and we can’t argue with the bottom-line franchise results. Clark will be a top free agent at edge defender, but he’ll be a boom/bust free agent.
The Chiefs did not use a franchise tag on OT Orlando Brown.
Why It Matters: Brown was a key part of rebuilding the offensive line on the fly after it collapsed in the 2020 postseason, but the team has decided that they don’t want to pay him a top salary to keep him for a year or use the tag keep Brown from negotiating from other teams and having the market set his price for 2023 and beyond. The Chiefs could still sign Brown to a long-term deal, but now the window for that to happen has been made a lot smaller. Brett Veach has been a maestro at managing this roster and the cap, so trust in his strategy and decisions. Brown instantly becomes one of the top 10 free agents available to sign with any team next week.
LA Chargers
The Chargers restructured WR Keenan Allen's and Mike Williams' contracts, creating 14.3775 million in cap space.
Why It Matters: Allen getting released as a cap casualty was never a real possibility. He is going in the late fifth round in early Underdog drafts, which will be a bargain if Allen stays healthy. Justin Herbert was a fantasy disappointment last year but could hit his ceiling in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense if Allen, Williams, and Austin Ekeler don’t miss a lot of time due to injury.
Las Vegas
The Raiders used the franchise tag on RB Josh Jacobs.
Why It Matters: Jacobs will get a little over 10 million dollars, which is only two million more than the fifth-year option that the Raiders turned down last year. That’s a small punishment for not believing in the 2022 rushing champion. Jacobs is going in the third round in early Underdog drafts, which could be a bargain if the team signs Jimmy Garoppolo or a surprise suitor for Lamar Jackson. Even if he’s taking handoffs from Jarrett Stidham, Jacobs is a solid pick at current ADP.
NY Jets
ESPN’s Dianna Russini reports that there is optimism that the Jets are on the brink of trading for Aaron Rodgers.
Why It Matters: This should be considered a huge upgrade for the Jets offense and Rodgers if it comes to pass. We saw what kind of passing numbers this offense could produce with any quarterback other than Zach Wilson, and we saw Rodgers surrounded by ineffective and inexperienced receivers last year. The reports on compensation via trade differ, but there has been more than one report that the Packers are ready to move on from Rodgers and give Jordan Love (whose Superflex dynasty value is about to spike) a shot, so expect a deal to get done soon, if not since this was written. Garrett Wilson in the late second of early Underdog drafts but could move up into the top 15-18 picks. Breece Hall and Elijah Moore should also get a boost, while Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon’s stars will officially dim if and when Rodgers and the Packers end their relationship.
Tennessee
Mike Silver of Bally Sports reports that his sources - all of them current NFL general managers - have told him that the Titans are shopping RB Derrick Henry on the trade market.
Why It Matters: Silver is a long-time NFL insider, so we can’t take this report lightly, but Jon Jones of CBS said his sources denied that Henry is on the trade block, adding that new GM Ran Carthon would be “methodical” in his approach to managing the roster. It’s certainly possible that the Titans are open to trading Henry for the right (read: an exorbitant) price, but Carthon isn’t actively pursuing a trade and is more likely to keep Henry and Ryan Tannehill in an attempt to contend this season even after the team recently released Robert Woods, Taylor Lewan, and Bud Dupree.
NFC
Dallas
The Cowboys used the franchise tag on Tony Pollard.
Why It Matters: Pollard will be the lead back for the Cowboys, costing a little over 10 million for one year. We’ll be watching his recovery from January surgery following a season-ending leg injury, but his current price of an early fourth-round pick is worth it. If the Cowboys part ways with Ezekiel Elliott - which is still possible - Pollard’s current ADP will look like a value. The Cowboys running game should be central to their success with the move to Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator.
LA Rams
The Rams have given WR Allen Robinson permission to seek a trade, and they are expected to release EDGE Leonard Floyd.
Why It Matters: If the team can move Robinson, expect them to eat some of his salary in an admission that they overpaid for his services and overestimated their chances of remaining a contender after pushing all the chips in the middle of the table to win a Super Bowl. Robinson is available very late in early best ball drafts, so if this news enhances his stock in your eyes, feel free to invest at the current penny stock cost. The Rams are in rebuilding mode, with Floyd also on the way out. The only question now is how long before Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald retire.
Minnesota
Minnesota released LB Eric Kendricks.
Why It Matters: When the Vikings installed a new regime last offseason, Kendricks (and Harrison Smith and Adam Thielen) were considered possible trade bait if the team wanted to embark on a rebuilding mission. They decided to give this group one more year, which resulted in a division title, but also a one-and-done playoff appearance. The release of Kendricks will save them 9.5 million in cap space, and they will likely turn to 2022 second-round pick Brian Asamoah to replace Kendricks, which could make him a huge hit in IDP leagues. Will Adam Thielen and Harrison be next to go? Stay tuned.
GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not commit to RB Dalvin Cook being the team’s #1 running back in 2023.
Why It Matters: The Vikings will probably only be in on Cook’s backup Alexander Mattison if he finds a very soft free-agent market for his services, as they were reportedly shopping Mattison last summer. Last year’s fifth-round pick Ty Chandler and 2021 fourth-round pick Kene Nwangwu will have larger roles this season, but with the general manager not committing to Cook when asked at the combine, it’s possible that they could be fantasy relevant in 2023. Cook does have a two million dollar injury guarantee that would be triggered by a release because he recently had shoulder surgery, but the team would still get a $5.9 million dose of cap relief if they release or trade Cook.
New Orleans
The Saints signed QB Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million deal.
Why It Matters: The deal isn’t as exorbitant as the reported numbers make it seem, as the Saints are really only on the hook for $60 million guaranteed over the first two years, with $10 million of the third year guaranteed if Carr can last two years with the team. It’s still a lot when the team got at least adequate (probably better) performances from Andy Dalton last year for three million. Carr isn’t going to elevate this offense much more than Dalton did, and unless he is traded to Denver, Taysom Hill will get his share of snaps at quarterback. Chris Olave is the clearest winner for fantasy, but it’s not clear if the Saints offense will give us other consistent fantasy plays with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara’s futures with the team still in doubt. This move could make the Saints good enough to win the NFC South, but that’s not saying much.
NY Giants
The Giants used the franchise tag on RB Saquon Barkley and signed QB Daniel Jones to a four-year deal worth $160 million.
Why It Matters: This deal is practically a three-year, $112.5 million deal, which marries them to him for a long enough time to rule out a big move at quarterback this year. The glass-half-empty take here is that Brian Daboll made Jones after Jones floundered for three years, and he could just as easily make another unheralded but gifted quarterback. The glass-half-full take is that Jones could take a big step forward with a maturing and talented pair of tackles and a sure upgrade at wide receiver after playing with maybe the lowest-regarded group in the league last year. Barkley and the team will still try to work out a long-term deal. But teams are loathed to commit to second contracts for running backs, and Barkley’s tag number will be very reasonable next year with a cost of only 10.1 million this year. Even if you don’t like committing to Jones and Barkley and would have preferred a full rebuild, it’s a great message to send to the locker room to reward these players for performance and give this core a chance to show what they can do with more time to build around them.
Seattle
The Seahawks signed QB Geno Smith to a three-year, $75 million deal.
Why It Matters: Only $40 million is guaranteed, and a 25 million per season deal is a bargain for someone who performed as well as Smith did last year in this quarterback market. Don’t think this precludes the Seahawks from taking a quarterback at #5 or even trading up, as they would be an excellent fit for uber-athletic prospect Anthony Richardson out of Florida, and Smith’s presence would give him time to develop in the incubator, which should increase his chances of success.
