Finding Value in NFL Team WR2s

Photo: USA Today Sports

Fantasy football draft season is underway, which means there are decisions to be made. How you assemble your wide receiver group is always one of the more paramount decisions to make on draft day. NFL teams lend a helping hand by releasing a depth chart. Most times, you’ll find their first listed wide receiver as the first player being drafted to most fantasy teams. These players are commonly called the WR1. However, just because a player is listed as the number one option doesn’t always mean they are the best option. Let us look at some wide receivers sitting at number two, or lower, on their team’s depth charts who may end up being the better option. And let's call these players WR2s.

We will classify these receivers into three categories:

• Superior Receiver: The wide receiver listed second on a team’s depth chart is the better fantasy option overall. This player should be going before his teammate and therefore has the more appealing average draft position or ADP.
• Similar Expected Production: The expected fantasy production between the top two players from their team is so close that it makes the second player the better value by default. Let your league mates make the first move. This is the most common category these receiver duos fall into.
• Value Player: While not as good as the WR1 from their team, the WR2, or second receiver listed, has an incredible stand-alone value at his current average draft position. You don’t need to pass over WR1 in these situations, but it could allow the chance to bolster another position on your team.

Superior WR2

Calvin Ridley (WR20 or 49th Overall)
Christian Kirk (WR31 or 75th Overall)

Christian Kirk made fools of the skeptics in 2022 and showed his worth could be the four-year, $72 million contract he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kirk led the Jaguars in the majority of receiving categories last season, including targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He finished the season as the WR12 in PPR leagues, a bargain on draft day for managers expecting him to exceed his WR40 ADP. Kirk also finished second among all players in yards out of the slot and tied for fourth in total slot receptions. Even after a great season, Kirk’s ADP only rose nine spots among wide receivers. The cause: the arrival of Calvin Ridley in Jacksonville.

The last time we saw Calvin Ridley on the field for a full season, he turned 90 receptions into 1374 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, which had him finishing as the fifth-best wide receiver in PPR leagues. A suspension and personal time away from the field will result in a 686-day gap between Ridley’s last game and the start of the 2023 NFL season. It will have been even longer since his top-five wide receiver season. Even if Ridley returns to form, some time to acclimate himself to his new team and the NFL will be needed. Also, Ridley will be working primarily as an outside receiver which shouldn’t cut into Kirk’s workload as much as teammate Zay Jones. Both receivers will be involved without a doubt, but Kirk earned the job as the lead receiver last season. If Ridley were to assume the role, it wouldn’t come until later in the season.

Players To Target Instead of Ridley: Dameon Pierce, DJ Moore, or Justin Fields.

Similar Expected Production WR2s

A.J. Brown (WR7 or 14th Overall)
DeVonta Smith (WR14 or 31st overall)

The main thing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have in common is they both play for the Philadelphia Eagles. They may also like their cheese steak the same way, I have no idea. I didn’t do research there. Safe to say, their play style and what they do on the field are very different. Brown is a field stretcher who relies on his high-yardage receptions, whereas Smith relies on volume as one of the best slot receivers in the league. Both finished as top-nine wide receivers in points per reception (PPR) leagues last season. Now this isn’t an indictment on A.J. Brown. He remains one of the elite receivers in the league on a team who looks to pass even more in 2022. This is more about Smith, who, in the last ten games of the season, was in lockstep with his teammate, with Brown averaging 16.5 FPPG and Smith averaging 16.3. Pairing Smith with one of the running backs or an elite quarterback going in Brown’s range gives a nice balance to the start of your draft, opening your options in the later rounds.

Players To Target Instead of Brown: Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes II.