Travis Kelce: How Early is Too Early to Draft Him?

Jason Wood's Travis Kelce: How Early is Too Early to Draft Him? Jason Wood Published 06/09/2023

When it comes to ranking players, there's always a whirlwind of viewpoints, igniting fiery debates on their place in the hierarchy and their suitability as foundational pieces for your fantasy football team. Travis Kelce, however, stands apart from the crowd. Beyond the fervent naysayers, the consensus is clear: Kelce isn't just a top-notch player. He's a future Hall of Famer and one of the best ever to grace his position.

The core of the debate with a powerhouse like Kelce is pinpointing his draft value: just how high should he be picked, and how does his worth as the premier tight end stack up against your options in other positions?

The simple answer is that Travis Kelce is an absolutely defensible pick at any draft position, and yes, that includes first overall. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not outright advocating for Kelce to be the first name off the board in a 12-team, snake draft league. But I'd argue there's a solid case for picking him first. Depending on your draft position and the strategy you're rolling with for team-building, Kelce should be snapped up no later than the 6th overall pick in every draft.

Related: See all of our Player Spotlights here >>>

Travis Kelce is an All-Time Great

I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, but it's worth noting how dominant Kelce has been.

Top 20 Tight Ends (1960-Present), Total Career Receiving Yards

Rank Player Years Gms Recs Yds YPR TDs FPTs
1 Tony Gonzalez 1997--2013 270 1325 15127 11.4 111 3,503.7
2 Jason Witten 2003--2020 265 1228 13045 10.6 74 2,976.5
3 Antonio Gates 2003--2018 234 944 11738 12.4 114 2,801.8
4 Travis Kelce 2014--2022 144 814 10344 12.7 69 2,262.4
5 Shannon Sharpe 1990--2003 203 815 10060 12.3 62 2,193.0
6 Rob Gronkowski 2010--2021 143 621 9285 15.0 92 2,101.5
7 Greg Olsen 2007--2020 199 742 8683 11.7 60 1,970.3
8 Jimmy Graham 2010--2021 180 713 8506 11.9 85 2,073.6
9 Ozzie Newsome 1978--1990 198 662 7980 12.1 47 1,742.0
10 Jackie Smith 1963--1978 210 480 7918 16.5 40 1,511.8
11 Vernon Davis 2006--2019 198 583 7562 13.0 63 1,717.2
12 Zach Ertz 2013--2022 144 682 7247 10.6 45 1,676.7
13 Jared Cook 2009--2021 194 553 7236 13.1 45 1,546.6
14 Kellen Winslow 1979--1987 109 541 6741 12.5 45 1,485.1
15 Heath Miller 2005--2015 168 592 6569 11.1 45 1,518.9
16 Steve Jordan 1982--1994 176 498 6307 12.7 28 1,296.7
17 Jeremy Shockey 2002--2011 137 547 6144 11.2 37 1,383.4
18 Ben Watson 2004--2019 208 547 6058 11.1 44 1,416.8
19 Delanie Walker 2006--2019 182 504 5883 11.7 36 1,308.3
20 Todd Christensen 1979--1988 137 461 5872 12.7 41 1,294.2

Kelce currently stands 4th with 10,344 yards and 5th with 814 receptions among tight ends. Based on his trajectory, if he sticks around for a few more seasons, there's a solid chance he could secure the second spot all-time. Taking over the top spot from Tony Gonzalez, though, might require at least another half-decade on the gridiron.

But what's really interesting here is the rapidity of Kelce's rise. He's skyrocketed up the ranks playing fewer games than many of his top-tier peers. Take a peek at how they stack up when we talk fantasy points per game (PPR):

Top 20 Tight Ends, Receiving Yards (1960-Present), Ranked by Fantasy Points (PPR) Per Game

Rank Player Years Gms Recs Yds YPR TDs FPTs FPT/Gm
1 Travis Kelce 2014--2022 144 814 10344 12.7 69 2,262.4 15.7
2 Rob Gronkowski 2010--2021 143 621 9285 15.0 92 2,101.5 14.7
3 Kellen Winslow 1979--1987 109 541 6741 12.5 45 1,485.1 13.6
4 Tony Gonzalez 1997--2013 270 1325 15127 11.4 111 3,503.7 13.0
5 Antonio Gates 2003--2018 234 944 11738 12.4 114 2,801.8 12.0
6 Zach Ertz 2013--2022 144 682 7247 10.6 45 1,676.7 11.6
7 Jimmy Graham 2010--2021 180 713 8506 11.9 85 2,073.6 11.5
8 Jason Witten 2003--2020 265 1228 13045 10.6 74 2,976.5 11.2
9 Shannon Sharpe 1990--2003 203 815 10060 12.3 62 2,193.0 10.8
10 Jeremy Shockey 2002--2011 137 547 6144 11.2 37 1,383.4 10.1
11 Greg Olsen 2007--2020 199 742 8683 11.7 60 1,970.3 9.9
12 Todd Christensen 1979--1988 137 461 5872 12.7 41 1,294.2 9.4
13 Heath Miller 2005--2015 168 592 6569 11.1 45 1,518.9 9.0
14 Ozzie Newsome 1978--1990 198 662 7980 12.1 47 1,742.0 8.8
15 Vernon Davis 2006--2019 198 583 7562 13.0 63 1,717.2 8.7
16 Jared Cook 2009--2021 194 553 7236 13.1 45 1,546.6 8.0
17 Steve Jordan 1982--1994 176 498 6307 12.7 28 1,296.7 7.4
18 Jackie Smith 1963--1978 210 480 7918 16.5 40 1,511.8 7.2
19 Delanie Walker 2006--2019 182 504 5883 11.7 36 1,308.3 7.2
20 Ben Watson 2004--2019 208 547 6058 11.1 44 1,416.8 6.8

On a PPR basis, Kelce is the best fantasy tight end in history. He's averaged a full point more per game than Rob Gronkowski, who sits comfortably at No. 2 on the list.

2022's Dominance Was (Almost) Unprecedented

Kelce wasn't just the No. 1 fantasy tight end last year; it was the sixth time he's claimed the top spot out of the last seven seasons. But it's not his position at the top that's truly remarkable - it's the staggering margin by which he outplayed everyone else at his position.

2022 Stats and Fantasy Values

Rank Player Team Gms Recs Yds YPR TDs FPT/Gm FPTs
1 Travis Kelce KC 17 110 1338 12.2 12 18.6 316.3
2 T.J. Hockenson DET/MIN 17 86 914 10.6 6 12.6 213.4

Kelce didn't just beat T.J. Hockenson, the No. 2 fantasy tight end, he outscored him by a whopping 100-plus fantasy points. It's an absolute rarity to see the top player at any position lead their next closest competitor by such a striking difference. But exactly how uncommon is this feat?

No. 1 Fantasy Players at Each Position (QB/RB/WR/TE), 2013-2022

Rank Player Year Pos FPT/Gm FPTs VALUE OVER NO. 2 Xval/Gm Pct AdvANTAGE
1 Travis Kelce KC 2022 TE 18.6 316.3 102.9 6.05 32.5%
2 Christian McCaffrey CAR 2019 RB 29.3 469.2 150.4 9.40 32.1%
3 Jimmy Graham NO 2013 TE 19.0 303.5 87.7 5.48 28.8%
4 Michael Thomas NO 2019 WR 23.4 374.6 100.5 6.28 26.8%
5 Cooper Kupp LAR 2021 WR 25.7 437.5 93.2 5.48 21.3%
6 Lamar Jackson BAL 2019 QB 28.0 420.4 80.7 5.38 19.2%
7 Devonta Freeman ATL 2015 RB 21.4 320.9 54.2 3.61 16.9%
8 Russell Wilson SEA 2017 QB 21.9 349.9 50.4 3.15 14.4%
9 Peyton Manning DEN 2013 QB 26.4 422.0 60.1 3.76 14.2%
10 Patrick Mahomes II II KC 2018 QB 26.2 419.1 59.2 3.70 14.1%
11 David Johnson ARI 2016 RB 25.1 377.0 49.6 3.31 13.2%
12 Travis Kelce KC 2019 TE 16.0 256.3 33.2 2.08 13.0%
13 Cam Newton CAR 2015 QB 24.8 397.1 49.4 3.09 12.4%
14 Rob Gronkowski NE 2014 TE 17.8 266.4 32.5 2.17 12.2%
15 Antonio Brown PIT 2014 WR 23.9 382.9 44.0 2.75 11.5%
16 Jamaal Charles KC 2013 RB 25.5 382.1 41.8 2.79 10.9%
17 Mark Andrews BAL 2021 TE 17.5 297.1 32.3 1.90 10.9%
18 Todd Gurley LAR 2017 RB 25.8 387.3 41.7 2.78 10.8%
19 Alvin Kamara NO 2020 RB 25.2 377.8 40.0 2.67 10.6%
20 Travis Kelce KC 2020 TE 20.9 312.8 32.3 2.15 10.3%
21 Aaron Rodgers GB 2016 QB 24.0 384.0 36.5 2.28 9.5%
22 Davante Adams GB 2020 WR 25.7 360.4 31.5 2.25 8.8%
23 Jonathan Taylor IND 2021 RB 22.2 377.1 31.3 1.84 8.3%
24 Austi nEkeler LAC 2022 RB 22.3 378.7 22.3 1.31 5.9%
25 Travis Kelce KC 2018 TE 18.5 296.6 16.3 1.02 5.5%
26 Josh Allen BUF 2021 QB 23.7 402.6 21.9 1.29 5.4%
27 Travis Kelce KC 2016 TE 13.8 221.0 12.0 0.75 5.4%
28 Justin Jefferson MIN 2022 WR 21.6 366.7 19.5 1.15 5.3%
29 Josh Allen BUF 2020 QB 25.4 407.0 20.3 1.27 5.0%
30 Travis Kelce KC 2017 TE 15.6 233.5 8.2 0.55 3.5%
31 Antonio Brown PIT 2015 WR 23.9 382.2 11.1 0.69 2.9%
32 Rob Gronkowski NE 2015 TE 17.0 255.6 7.4 0.49 2.9%
33 Le'Veon Bell PIT 2014 RB 23.2 370.5 9.4 0.59 2.5%
34 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 2018 WR 21.1 337.5 7.7 0.48 2.3%
35 Andrew Luck IND 2014 QB 22.7 362.7 6.6 0.41 1.8%
36 Patrick Mahomes II II KC 2022 QB 24.1 410.4 6.2 0.36 1.5%
37 Demaryius Thomas DEN 2013 WR 19.9 319.0 4.6 0.29 1.4%
38 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 2017 WR 20.8 311.8 3.5 0.23 1.1%
39 Christian McCaffrey CAR 2018 RB 24.2 387.5 3.7 0.23 1.0%
40 Antonio Brown PIT 2016 WR 20.5 307.3 0.6 0.04 0.2%

Kelce's performance wasn't just good, it was extraordinary. On a per game basis, he outpaced Hockenson by an impressive 32.5%. This meant that if you had Kelce in your fantasy lineup, you were ahead by an average of more than 6 points at the tight end position against your competitor—sometimes, by even more.

Now, let's put this into perspective among all NFL players. In terms of a sheer fantasy point lead over the player ranked No. 2 in their respective position, Kelce's staggering 6.05-point edge is only surpassed by the phenomenal seasons of Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas in 2019. But when we talk percentages, Kelce is unrivaled—sitting at the pinnacle.

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2023 isn't 2022, Though

Remember, fantasy football success is about forecasting the best team for the upcoming season, not clinging to past performances. While Kelce's 2022 season was nothing short of amazing, it only carries weight if we expect his excellence to continue.

Fortunately, the pillars that underpin Kelce's dominance are still standing tall:

  • Head coach Andy Reid, the maestro of the playbook, remains at the helm.
  • Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes II is still orchestrating plays from under center.
  • The team didn't bring in any new running backs to vie for targets.
  • No elite play-making receiver was added to the mix, and last year's leading receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left to join the Patriots.

So, provided Kelce stays healthy, expect him to continue being the most targeted player in the league's most potent offense.

And the Alternatives Leave Much to Be Desired

Footballguys Staff Consensus, Tight Ends

RANK PLAYER
1 Travis Kelce
2 T.J. Hockenson
3 Mark Andrews
4 George Kittle
5 Kyle Pitts
6 Darren Waller
7 Dallas Goedert
8 Pat Freiermuth
9 Evan Engram
10 Chigoziem Okonkwo
11 David Njoku
12 Dalton Schultz

Consider their respective CAREER fantasy points per game...

RANK PLAYER TEAM Gms GS Tgts Recs RecYds YPR TDs FPTS FPT/Gm
1 Travis Kelce KC 144 137 1146 814 10344 12.7 69 2,262 15.7
2 T.J. Hockenson MIN 57 49 373 246 2587 10.5 18 613 10.7
3 Mark Andrews BAL 77 33 502 336 4313 12.8 34 971 12.6
4 George Kittle SF 82 74 549 395 5254 13.3 31 1,106 13.5
5 Kyle Pitts ATL 27 25 169 96 1382 14.4 3 252 9.3
6 Darren Waller NYG 74 52 427 298 3572 12.0 19 769 10.4
7 Dallas Goedert PHI 69 52 341 248 2997 12.1 19 662 9.6
8 Pat Freiermuth PIT 32 17 177 123 1229 10.0 9 300 9.4
9 Evan Engram JAX 82 65 527 335 3594 10.7 20 814 9.9
10 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN 17 8 46 32 450 14.1 3 95 5.6
11 David Njoku CLE 79 50 320 206 2382 11.6 19 558 7.1
12 Dalton Schultz HOU 75 51 301 211 2122 10.1 17 525 7.0
Average (w/o Kelce) 61 43 339 230 2,717 11.8 17 606 9.9

Now take a look at each of their BEST INDIVIDUAL fantasy seasons...

RANK PLAYER TEAM Gms GS Tgts Recs RecYds YPR TDs FPTS FPT/Gm
1 Travis Kelce KC 17 17 152 110 1338 12.2 12 316 18.6
2 T.J. Hockenson MIN 17 14 129 86 914 10.6 6 213 12.6
3 Mark Andrews BAL 17 9 153 107 1361 12.7 9 297 17.5
4 George Kittle SF 16 16 136 88 1377 15.6 5 256 16.0
5 Kyle Pitts ATL 17 15 110 68 1026 15.1 1 177 10.4
6 Darren Waller NYG 16 15 145 107 1196 11.2 9 281 17.5
7 Dallas Goedert PHI 15 14 76 56 830 14.8 4 163 10.9
8 Pat Freiermuth PIT 16 9 79 60 497 8.3 7 152 9.5
9 Evan Engram JAX 17 14 98 73 766 10.5 4 174 10.2
10 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN 17 8 46 32 450 14.1 3 95 5.6
11 David Njoku CLE 14 14 80 58 628 10.8 4 145 10.3
12 Dalton Schultz HOU 17 15 104 78 808 10.4 8 207 12.2
Average (w/o Kelce) Photos provided by Imagn Images
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