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It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times...
Miles Sanders recently concluded the best season of his career. He scored 11 touchdowns, more than doubling his previous career total of nine. His 1,269 yards were a career-high, exceeding his previous best by over 400 yards and ranking him fifth in the NFL. This total was the tenth-highest in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles, and he now ranks eighth in franchise rushing yards.
Conversely, Sanders also experienced the worst season of his career. As a receiver, he posted career lows across the board, with 26 targets, 20 receptions, and 78 receiving yards. In points per reception formats, Sanders added just 1.74 points via the passing game. Among backs who finished in the top 30 in fantasy points, only Jamaal Williams contributed less to their fantasy total. In contrast, Austin Ekeler added over 12 points per game to his total through the passing game.
However, this was not always the case.
In his rookie season, Sanders recorded 50 receptions for 509 yards and three touchdowns. In the history of the NFL, only 11 rookie running backs have achieved at least 50 receptions, 500 yards and three touchdowns. Despite the growth in the passing game, especially the short, controlled passing game, and the willingness of NFL teams to involve rookies immediately, only five of these seasons have occurred in the last 20 years, and none since Sanders in 2019.
Table: Rookie Running Backs with at least 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns
| Rank | NAME | POS | YR | AGE | EXP | G | REC | RECYD | YD/REC | RECTD | FANT PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Alstott | rb | 1996 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 65 | 557 | 8.57 | 3 | 129.4 |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | rb | 2018 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 91 | 721 | 7.92 | 4 | 292.8 |
| 3 | Giovani Bernard | rb | 2013 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 56 | 514 | 9.18 | 3 | 168.9 |
| 4 | Earl Cooper | rb | 1980 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 83 | 567 | 6.83 | 4 | 182.7 |
| 5 | Abner Haynes | rb | 1960 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 576 | 10.47 | 3 | 217.1 |
| 6 | Edgerrin James | rb | 1999 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 62 | 586 | 9.45 | 4 | 315.9 |
| 7 | Alvin Kamara | rb | 2017 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 82 | 826 | 10.07 | 5 | 233.4 |
| 8 | Terry Kirby | rb | 1993 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 75 | 874 | 11.65 | 3 | 162.4 |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | rb | 2017 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 80 | 651 | 8.14 | 5 | 150.6 |
| 10 | Miles Sanders | rb | 2019 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 50 | 509 | 10.18 | 3 | 168.7 |
| 11 | Billy Sims | rb | 1980 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 51 | 621 | 12.18 | 3 | 288.4 |
Sanders presents a duality. He has demonstrated explosive ability, yet certain aspects of his game have left fantasy players unsatisfied. After all, his 11 touchdowns came on the heels of a season in which he failed to score.
Sanders's enigma persists as he embarks on a new chapter of his career with the Carolina Panthers. While the offense is wide open, devoid of any consistent playmakers, and Carolina prioritized Sanders in free agency, he is also leaving one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Can he thrive in this new offensive structure? How does he fit within the scheme?
Frank Reich's Record with Running Backs
Throughout his tenure as an offensive coordinator and head coach, new Panthers coach Frank Reich has typically favored a specialized, two-headed committee approach. However, it's reasonable to question how much of this usage was strategic planning versus simply utilizing the players at his disposal.
Reich inherited situations where players like Danny Woodhead and Darren Sproles, known as some of the NFL's best pass-catching specialists over the past decade, were already on the roster. Reich was the offensive coordinator when the Chargers selected Melvin Gordon in the first round of the 2015 draft and the head coach when Jonathan Taylor was picked 41st by the Colts. In both instances, the team began to shift away from committee usage immediately.
| Year | Team | RB1 | Rushes | Targets | RB2 | Rushes | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Chargers | Melvin Gordon | 184 | 37 | Danny Woodhead | 98 | 106 |
| 2016 | Eagles | Ryan Matthews | 155 | 14 | Darren Sproles | 94 | 71 |
| 2017 | Eagles | LeGarrette Blount | 173 | 8 | Corey Clement | 74 | 15 |
| 2018 | Colts | Marlon Mack | 195 | 26 | Nyheim Hines | 85 | 81 |
| 2019 | Colts | Marlon Mack | 247 | 17 | Nyheim Hines | 52 | 58 |
| 2020 | Colts | Jonathan Taylor | 232 | 39 | Nyheim Hines | 89 | 76 |
| 2021 | Colts | Jonathan Taylor | 332 | 51 | Nyheim Hines | 56 | 57 |
"Miles is a three-down back, and he can do a little bit of everything," coach Frank Reich said. "That signing was a really big signing for us. I knew we knew it at the time, but now we really know."
Sanders is excited about reuniting with running backs coach Duce Staley, his position coach as a rookie: "Most importantly, he knows what I'm about, and he's the one that drafted me. We're going to get back to what we've been doing."
An Ambiguous Situation
In the Panthers' projected offense, Miles Sanders is expected to take on the role of the starting running back, with Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Terrace Marshall starting at wide receiver and Hayden Hurst at tight end. Second-round pick Jonathan Mingo is also likely to quickly work his way into the rotation.
Looking at the returning production, Terrace Marshall's 28 receptions and 490 yards are the only notable contributions. Among the group, there are three career 1,000-yard seasons, two from Thielen and one from Chark. However, neither player has surpassed 800 yards since 2020.
Fantasy football players often hope for a clear-cut number-one option to emerge, but situations like this can result in a murky passing game distribution.
Take a look at teams like the Patriots, Titans, and Packers. All three lacked a definitive top option, leading to a chaotic passing tree. The Packers had six players with receiving yardage ranging from 395 to 788. The Patriots had six players with yardage ranging from 362 to 804. The Titans had six players with yardage ranging from 397 to 527.
While these teams lacked a clear top receiving option, they provided ample opportunities for their running backs in the passing game. Rhamondre Stevenson ranked third in running back targets with 88 for the Patriots. Aaron Jones achieved career highs with 72 targets and 59 receptions for the Packers. Derrick Henry also achieved career highs in receiving across the board, with 41 targets, 33 receptions, and 398 yards for the Titans.
Considering Frank Reich's history of utilizing running backs in the passing game, it is likely that the Panthers will need to involve Sanders in that aspect given the ambiguity surrounding their receiving corps.
The Offensive Line
To put it frankly, Miles Sanders was in one of the most favorable offensive situations in 2022. The Eagles had an outstanding offensive line, which our expert Matt Bitonti ranked as the best in the NFL. Additionally, with Jalen Hurts' dual-threat abilities and the receiving talent on the Eagles' roster, it would be challenging for Sanders to replicate his rushing production.
However, the Panthers' situation is improving. In last year's preseason, Bitonti ranked the Panthers' offensive line at 26th. This year, they have moved up to 14th, with an overall run-blocking grade that ranks ninth.
The Panthers offensive line is greater than the sum of its parts. The entire unit is returning, providing them with a full season of experience playing together. Additionally, the team can anticipate further improvement from Ikem Ekwonu, their sixth overall pick in the 2022 draft.
Recent Stats
| Season | Team | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Targets | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | PHI | 12 | 164 | 867 | 6 | 52 | 28 | 197 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021 | PHI | 12 | 137 | 754 | 0 | 34 | 26 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | PHI | 17 | 259 | 1269 | 11 | 26 | 20 | 78 | 0 | 2 |
Projections
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amico | 17.0 | 260.2 | 1307 | 7.4 | 41.0 | 311 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Freeman | 15.0 | 185.1 | 885 | 6.7 | 25.1 | 187 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Henry | 14.0 | 185.0 | 890 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 220 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Tremblay | 17.0 | 207.0 | 956 | 7.0 | 28.8 | 191 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Wood | 15.0 | 245.0 | 1075 | 7.0 | 30.0 | 215 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Bell | 16.0 | 215.0 | 1008 | 6.4 | 49.8 | 348 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Based on my projections, I anticipate that Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard will split carries with a split of around 63% for Sanders and 37% for Hubbard. This split aligns with Frank Reich's history of utilizing running back duos such as Gordon/Woodhead, Blount/Sproles, and Mack/Hines. Additionally, I project higher involvement in the passing game for Sanders compared to my colleagues. As a result, I have Sanders ranked as RB14 in my full PPR rankings, whereas his current average draft position (ADP) is RB20.
Final Thoughts
Frank Reich has a track record of involving running backs in the passing game, which bodes well for Sanders. The Panthers' receiving situation is ambiguous, requiring contributions from all skill positions. While Sanders may see a decrease in rushing production, his increased involvement in the passing game, reminiscent of his rookie season, presents an opportunity for him to make up for that drop in value. Given his ADP of RB20, he offers multiple paths to create value and should be a priority target, particularly in the mid to late fifth round.