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Calvin Ridley is already winning. In Jaguars' camp, there is a buzz about Ridley. Trevor Lawrence is ready: "But just to get to know him as a person and just to see his work ethic and how hungry he is to get back into play and how happy he is to be a part of our team, I think that's been the coolest part of having him here."

Ridley's return has been a journey.

The suspension for gambling is one thing. The recent suspensions from the Detroit Lions show players are still learning to operate in a world of changing legalities around sports betting.

But Ridley's real triumph is his mental health journey. His letter in the Player's Tribune is a must-read. The statistics around depression are harrowing. One in ten men experience depression or anxiety, but less than half will seek treatment—meanwhile, four times as many men die than women die by suicide yearly. Ridley's bravery shows men who are struggling they are not alone.

Now it is time to show there is a way forward.

Elite Production

Ridley's 90-1374-9 line from 2020 puts him in rare company. Over the last ten seasons, players who have accomplished that stat line per the Footballguys Historical Data Dominator:

That list is about as fluke free as it comes, filled with legitimate star players. But the starkest part is how few players accomplished those numbers multiple times, with only Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Demaryius Thomas accomplishing it multiple times.

Now it is time for Ridley to join that group.

The Path Back

The elephant in the room. The suspension. The list of players who missed an entire season due to suspension is, in a word, interesting:

Players do not forget how to play football when forced to sit out for a significant time. On the contrary, several players have used the time out to develop increased motivation or increased appreciation for the ability to play again, delivering some of the better performances of their careers.

Will there be an acclimation period? Absolutely. The Jaguars are already accounting for that, urging Ridley to take it slow and easing him up on reps. But Ridley's approach speaks to that increased desire to perform, saying, "I really only know one speed," in response to the slow process.

Ridley may start the season slowly. But discounting his overall production when no significant physical injury is involved is not supported by the history of players his caliber.

But returning to the top, given Jacksonville's talent, is still being determined.

A Target-Rich Environment

Based on 2022 production, the Jaguars have one of the most crowded target trees in the league. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram are all excellent players. But before their breakout performances, few suggested any of the three needed to be a top two option in a target tree. Little in their history suggested it. Kirk's contract was the most mocked of the free agency period. Jones had topped 75 targets once in a five-year career, and Engram had topped that number just once in the previous four seasons.

2022 was a perfect storm.

Health was firmly in favor of all three. Kirk, Jones, and Engram set career highs in snap counts. The Jaguars seldom used two running backs, running either three receivers or two tight end sets on 99.5% of snaps. The three represented 64% of those snaps, splitting the other 36% between six players. The Jaguars consistently lined up in one of two sets, including Marvin Jones as the third receiver or Chris Manhertz as the blocking tight end in heavier sets. Both are gone, replaced by Ridley and the rookie Brenton Strange.

Working in favor of the receiver group is the Jaguars' placement in the bottom five of running back target rate, at just 14.4%.

The arrival of Ridley knocks the entire receiver group down a level. The Jaguars split slot snaps between Kirk and Jones at a two-to-one rate, with Jones playing most of his snaps outside and Kirk working mostly inside. In his career, Ridley has rarely worked from the slot, instead working outside and in deeper areas of the field. Ridley's career average depth of target has hovered around 14 yards, while Kirk's has sat closer to 11 and Jones less than that.

Increasing that target depth will likely be a focal point for the Jaguars. In Doug Pederson's last two years in Philadelphia, Carson Wentz's intended air yards per attempt were 8 and 8.8. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence came in at 7.4 in 2022. The primary cause was the Jaguars needing a genuine vertical threat.

Despite the illusion of a very crowded target group, Ridley fills a significant need and fits the profile of Pederson's past attacks.

How does his profile stack up historically?

Reestablishing Elite Production

Last year, I broke down profiles for receivers who delivered top-ten finishes while holding ADPs outside the top 20 at the position. The players who historically delivered a return on those ADPs broke down into three categories: rookies, breakouts who fit within a statistical range, and faded players for environmental factors.

The "model" worked pretty well; of the 14 players identified as candidates to beat ADP, 11 did, and two were lost to injury.

While Ridley falls outside of the parameters at WR18, he still fits the model for players faded due to environmental factors. In 2020, Ridley's last entire season, he finished as overall WR5 and per game WR4.

Final Thoughts

Ridley has established himself as a star-level player previously. Lawrence is an ascendant talent at quarterback. Ridley may have an acclimation period, but he will establish himself as the primary receiver within the offense. Kirk already returned a WR1 season working within this scheme. Despite the depth of available targets, Ridley has a great chance to return to elite production and return significant value on a WR18 ADP.

You are not alone if you or someone you know is struggling with mental health. The National Institute for Mental Health is a great starting point.

Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions on Twitter @4WhomJBellTolls.