Many are familiar with the David Montgomery “Running Back Frankenstein” meme.

David Montgomery...AKA “Frankenstein”...AKA the greatest RB we’ve ever seen.

Comps like this are...Cool... #DynastyFootball #NFL #FFD260 pic.twitter.com/S7gD6GJCoH

— Aaron Schill (@aaron_schill) January 7, 2019

A true lesson in aggressive hyperbole.

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We know now David Montgomery was not Running Back Frankenstein. But Bijan Robinson?

Robinson showed his ability in one play against Alabama. Robinson quickly beat linebacker Dallas Turner on a wheel route up the right side. The ball was behind Robinson, who executed a leaping 360 at the 38-yard line. Robinson landed on his feet and immediately transitioned into a run after the catch opportunity, adding 16 yards to end the play. A phenomenal play for any wide receiver, Robinson executed it as 215 lbs running back.

The Atlanta Falcons and fantasy football players are counting on that just being a sample of the whole package. The team needs Robinson to contribute immediately, but what are reasonable expectations for this type of player?

Rookie Running Back Production

Rookie running back production for fantasy is no longer a mystery. I dove into the topic last year with a Breece Hall Spotlight. But running backs hit quickly; a combination of opportunity and natural ability allow for immediate impact.

Robinson is no ordinary running back. Robinson is just the sixth back to land inside the top ten since 2013. How have those backs produced?

Backs have averaged double-digit touchdowns, over 1,500 scrimmage yards, and gone five for five with RB1 seasons. Surprisingly, for one of the few times in his career, Christian McCaffrey brought the group's average down. Without his 14.3 points per game, the group average raises to 19.7, a number that would have finished as the overall RB3 in 2022.

Ultimately it takes a special player to land that kind of draft capital. And a special situation where a team has identified a clear need. The Falcons were one of the most productive rushing teams in the NFL. But they needed to raise their ceiling and boldly chose to do so. Robinson could be the final move in an even bigger offensive picture.

Arthur Smith's Total Football

Late one night, Ted Lasso imbibed in some spirits. A journey through Amsterdam led him to an American theme pub. While watching a replay of Michael Jordan and the 1990s Chicago Bulls executing Phil Jackson's triangle offense. Inspired, Lasso went about reinventing a concept called "Total Football." The theory is rooted in players playing interchangeable roles and eliminating positions, keeping opponents guessing, and working to create mismatches.

Arthur Smith may have inspired it. Maybe Smith drew inspiration from the triangle offense in basketball or the Dutch "Total Football" concept. Or there is no relation, and I am just using the analogy to explain the Falcons' offense at a base level.

The Falcon's intentions are clear. They are going to run it down your throat. The team's 559 rushing attempts were the tenth-highest team total since 1990. Defenses knew what was coming, yet they struggled to stop it as the Falcon's 4.9 yards per attempt were the second most efficient of the group. Amazingly, the Bears finished just behind at 558 attempts with a highly efficient 5.4 YPA.

If the defense knows what's coming, why can't they stop it?

The secret to success lies in Atlanta's use of shifts and personnel to trap the defense in unfavorable situations. Smith has accumulated offensive weapons that can move among roles. First, he brought Cordarrelle Patterson in, creating a role as a running back who can shift into the slot and force mismatches as his athleticism is brutal for linebackers, and his strength is a problem for defensive backs. Next, the team added Kyle Pitts, a tight end comfortable playing inline or split wide. 2022 first-rounder Drake London brings rare size for the receiver position, allowing him to move through roles. In the 2023 free agent period, a trade brought in Jonnu Smith, a player Smith used both in the backfield and as a traditional tight end with the Titans.

Those four allow the team to play in a spread lineup with any of them lined up wide or shift them all into heavy formation—a nightmare for defenses.

But Robinson is the cherry on top.

The ability of this core grouping to play a "Total Football" approach is fascinating. As a versatile running back who brings power and natural receiving ability, Robinson rounds out the skillsets of the previous four as the featured offensive weapon. The team can get Pitts and Patterson or London into an inline role, putting Smith as the lead fullback and running power sets. They can utilize Patterson'sPatterson's running ability as a pitchback who works from the slot and run collegiate triple-option concepts. Or they can force the defense into heavy personnel before splitting everyone wide and giving Robinson a very light box. If Robinson needs a breather, they can pull a defender to cover him wide while shifting Patterson into a lead-back role.

The real key is the lack of substitutional needs. Because the core five groupings can work interchangeably, the offense does not need to sub additional wide receivers or tight ends to change personnel looks. That traps the defense without the matching sub-rule. The Falcons can play a deliberate version of a hurry-up offense, pinning the defense before late shifts present unexpected looks.

The final piece is an offensive line that has earned top-five rankings by multiple services rounds out the unit. Guard Chris Lindstrom is arguably the best offensive lineman in the NFL; the team retained Kaleb McGary to keep the bookend pairing from the last five years with Jake Matthews. Center Drew Dalman will enter his third season, and the team moved to solidify the left guard position by taking Matthew Bergeron at pick 38 in the 2023 draft. A unit that is familiar with each other allows the team to avoid huddles and play at a deliberate tempo.

The Tyler Allgeier Conversation

Allgeier was excellent as a rookie, so it is fair to question why the team used a top-ten pick on Robinson, given the devaluation of the running back position. It is also reasonable to wonder if the team can continue to involve Allgeier meaningfully to return any standalone value.

To put it bluntly, it isn't very likely.

The sticky part is not even Robinson. It is the athleticism Desmond Ridder brings to the quarterback position and the involvement of Patterson. Earlier, I mentioned the Falcons' huge rushing pie. 559 attempts. Break it down, however, and it shows how multi-faceted the Falcons' attack was:

• Allgeier (RB1) - 210 carries
• Marcus Mariota / Ridder (QB) - 101 carries
• Patterson (Flex Back) - 144 carries
• Caleb Huntley (RB2) - 76 carries

That combines to 531, 95% of the total. But 22 (15%) of Patterson's carries came in just one game, and 32 (42%) of Huntley's were in two. When Allgeier took over the lead role over the second half of the season, the split looked like this:

• RB1 - 15
• QB - 4
• Flex Back - 9.6
• RB2 - 4

In the earlier sample, the backs selected in the top ten averaged 269 attempts in a 16-game season (after removing McCaffrey). That breaks down to 16.8 attempts per game, just a slight uptick from the RB1 role Allgeier. Baselining that would put Robinson immediately into the top five in attempts and leave roughly 12 attempts to split between Allgeier and Patterson.

It would be easy to dismiss Patterson. He's 32 years old, spent eight years in the NFL without any meaningful offensive role, and has been prone to injuries. But no player has personified Smith's tenure as Falcons coach like Patterson. He has embraced a team leadership role and should serve as an on-field mentor to portions of Robsinson's game that the team hopes to unlock. Given his versatility, he fits any personnel package. Perhaps most importantly, Robinson, London, Pitts, and Ridder have a combined 48 games of NFL experience. Patterson has played in three times as many, with 156. The young group will need a leader, and Patterson is it.

Meanwhile, Allgeier will be a tell to defenses when he enters the game. He saw just 17 passing targets in his rookie season and offers none of the scheme versatility of the other options.

The Boom Case

Piecemealing aspects of Smith’s past running back production hint at the potential upside in this offense. Since taking over as offensive coordinator for the Titans in 2019, Smith’s teams have placed in the top three of rush offenses in three out of four seasons. Included in that run was Derrick Henry’s 2,000-yard season in 2020.

The one down season? 2021, his first year as Falcons coach. The team placed 31st before a dramatic turnaround saw them back inside the top three. But even in that season, silver linings suggest Robinson’s overall ceiling.

Through the first eight weeks of the season, Patterson was used as a versatile chess piece, on a full season pace for 591 rushing yards and 975 receiving yards, on 5.9 targets and 4.8 receptions per game. That receiving total would place seventh all-time for running backs.

The best-case scenario for Robinson would blend Patterson’s receiving usage with Smith’s historic rushing success. Despite the lower passing volume, the Falcons have hyper-targeted players in Smith’s offense. The best-case scenario would see Robinson locked in with London and Pitts as a three-headed passing attack, while Smith’s offense positions Robinson as the primary ball carrier. This usage could push Robinson into the 2,000 yards from scrimmage area. It is lofty, but with an ADP of RB2, it is what is needed to return that investment.

The Bust Case

Pace will be a question; the Falcons' 59.5 plays per game placed them 27th in 2022. Efficiency is also a concern as Ridder steps in as a first-time starter. If the Falcons employ a committee rushing attack with Allgeier still heavily involved and the passing offense struggles for any meaningful volume, Robinson will not return on ADP.

Final Verdict

Robinson is the flashy new toy in fantasy football. That has boosted his ADP to a current RB2 overall in redraft formats. Rookie running backs carrying Robinson’s draft capital have exceeded expectations. Smith’s offenses have supported that level of return as well. It is risky, but someone in your league will pull the trigger. Robinson has the skills and underlying system to deliver on lofty projections.

Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions on Twitter @4WhomJBellTolls.