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"Amari Cooper will be good to go by training camp." Kevin Stefanski confirmed Cooper's offseason recovery from a core muscle surgery was on track in May. The hype around Elijah Moore's emergence dominated Browns' OTAs and minicamp, and the arrival of rookie Cedric Tillman and veteran wideout Marquise Goodwin was the talk of the town. While sidelined with the injury, Cooper failed to hit the field for team drills this spring and early summer. He did individual work in the second week of minicamp. Still, there wasn't an opportunity for social media highlights, media buzz, or anything that would inflate Cooper's value over the last few months. Cooper's lack of minicamp buzz should help fantasy managers, as his out-of-sight, out-of-mind nature has created value in fantasy football this offseason. With the Browns leaning into the passing attack, a massive target share potential, and a full season ahead for Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper has top-10 potential in 2023.

Scheme Shifting

The Browns' offseason moves indicate a shift to a more explosive passing attack. The acquisitions of Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin and the drafting of potential heir-apparent to Amari Cooper or Donovan Peoples-Jones - Cedric Tillman - indicate a focus on a downfield-centric approach. In 2022 with Jacoby Brissett under center for most of the season, the Browns leaned into heavy personnel groupings. Harrison Bryant, the Browns' No. 2 tight end, out-snapped David Bell, the Browns' No. 3 wideout. Since Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach, Cleveland has been near the bottom of the league in 11-personnel (three WRs, one TE, and one RB) deployments. But in Week 18 of last year, the Browns shifted their approach. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper each saw over 90% of the snaps, while No. 3 and 4 wide receivers David Bell and Michael Woods II saw more than 35% a piece. The Browns experimented with a similar game plan in Week 16, but Watson struggled. In Week 18, Watson looked more like the version fantasy managers saw when he was in Houston. He went 19/29 for 230 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The rust was still apparent, but the blueprint for the future arrived.

During Watson's three-year stretch of near-MVP-level play, he was incredibly efficient at creating outside of structure and pushing the ball downfield. He did so on more than 30 attempts per game, a number he failed to reach in his six games last season. When Watson arrived, Cooper was already playing through injury, and Peoples-Jones was the only field-stretching option on the team. The Browns approached this offseason with urgency to put players around Watson that fit his style; he inherited a team crafted to Baker Mayfield's strengths and weaknesses.

The Browns also cut ties with Kareem Hunt, a player they retained through the Baker Mayfield era because of the high volume of rush attempts necessary to run the offense. While Nick Chubb could handle a massive workload, the lack of a reliable No. 2 indicates a preference to transition to a more pass-heavy attack.

But how does this impact Cooper?

A shift to a pass-heavy attack will undoubtedly create more volume for Cooper despite the arrival of the new weapons. Cooper saw 7.8 targets per game in 2022, which he eclipsed just once in the last five seasons. His raw total of 132 targets matched his career high despite the team's insistence on running the ball; the Browns ran the ball at the eighth-highest rate in 2022. The Browns didn't give much to acquire Cooper, but they didn't shy away from getting him the football. While replicating his 26.04% target share may be unrealistic based on his past usage (it may be more realistic than fantasy managers think - stay tuned), a shift to an even league-median pass percentage would grant Cooper a massive boost in workload and, thus, fantasy performance. All signs point to an increase in passing volume, giving Cooper an upside not reflected in his current Average Draft Position.

Watson's No. 1 Receiver

Watson's three-year stretch of greatness also included one of the best wideouts in football for most of that time, but it's worth noting how often Watson chose to target DeAndre Hopkins.

While the numbers dipped following Hopkins' departure, the average of 28.21% over the three years inspires confidence that Cooper will again see high target volume. Cooper's skill set more closely matches Hopkins, with consistent wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and less reliance on deep balls, and his target share increasing from his 2022 mark wouldn't be shocking. But Cooper saw his highest target share in 2022 at 26.04%. For most of his career, he hovered around the 20% mark.

Still, 2022 was one of Cooper's least efficient years catching the football. He hauled in 59.1% of his targets, ranking third-worst in his career. He struggled with drops, as his 9.1% drop rate ranked second-worst in his career. But his 14.9 yards per reception ranked tied for second, and his average depth of target clip of 12.1 ranked second in his career. The Browns used him in the intermediate areas of the field, the place he was most lethal and where he has done the most damage during his career.

Assuming Watson returns to what he once was (or even a fraction of that instead of the poor-performing quarterback that showed up late in 2022), the quarterback play will be better - Jacoby Brissett's 75.7% on-target rate ranked second-worst among Cooper quarterbacks in the last four years behind only the Watson during his six-game stretch.

During that six-game stretch, Cooper saw 39 targets - or a rate of 23%. He was the top option, with Watson consistently looking to him in key situations. That rapport came without time to develop chemistry. A full offseason with Watson should increase both the rate and quality of targets, and combining that with an increase in volume could lead to a massive year for Cooper.

Past Stats

2023 Projections

Final Thoughts

Throughout his career, Amari Cooper gained a reputation for being disappointing. Cooper has outperformed his ADP just twice in his eight years in the NFL. Despite this, many signs point to Cooper outperforming his current ADP of WR17. Despite the poor quarterback play, Cooper finished as the WR11 in overall points and WR18 in points per game in 2022. He's being drafted relative to his 2022 performance, despite circumstances drastically improving and the team's indication they prefer to pass the football more. There are many paths to Cooper exceeding his current value. Maybe the offseason additions don't translate to production, and the Browns roll out more 12-personnel than expected, running the football with Nick Chubb at an incredibly high rate. The outcome for Cooper would likely be more of the target share, though less volume. The target quality would likely increase, and Cooper would improve his WR11 finish. The other, and more likely option, is that the Browns lean into a modern offense with more passing volume, and Cooper's target share goes down, but the volume more than makes up for that. The many options often lead to one conclusion: with his floor already baked into his acquisition cost and his ceiling landing inside the top 10, Amari Cooper is a smash at his current ADP.