Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs. KC) vs. Jaylen Watson

The Kansas City secondary was picked apart by Jordan Love last week, and Watson was putting up a lot of that damage. Jaylen Watson was torched by Christian Watson and will have his hands full again with Davis this week. Stefon Diggs will draw the tough coverage from L'Jarius Sneed and can be slightly downgraded this week. That should open things up nicely for Davis and Dalton Kincaid. Davis's home vs. away splits suggest he will have a down game this week, but he has the best matchup on the team and should be targeted early and often by Josh Allen in what is quickly becoming a must-win scenario for the Bills.

WR Jayden Reed (GB vs. NYG) vs. Cor'Dale Flott

Green Bay was locked in last week in an upset of the Chiefs. This week, they get a great matchup against a Giants' secondary that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This big story will be about the health of Christian Watson and whether or not he can play this week. That still does not change the great matchup that Reed has in the slot against Flott. The young corner currently allows 0.29 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. Look for Jordan Love to attack the middle of the field and spread the ball to his receivers. Upgrade the whole receiving unit for the Packers this week.

WR Tyreek Hill (MIA vs. TEN) vs. Kristian Fulton

It usually does not matter what the matchup is for Hill, but this week, he will face a very soft Tennessee secondary. As a unit, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the second-most to the perimeter. They have also allowed 22+ fantasy points to an opposing receiver in four out of their last five games. Fulton continues to be a weak point and is allowing 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted 18% of the time. This defense is susceptible to the big play, and Hill is the king of it. He is all systems go in any format this week and may be worth the high price in DFS.

WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs. PHI) vs. Darius Slay

Much like Hill above, you do not need to be told to start Lamb. However, it is worth stating just how good the matchup is for him this week to justify his DFS price. Lamb torched this defense for 11 catches and 190 yards when they met earlier this season and should see a similar coverage distribution. The Eagles are also coming off a game where they were beaten by Deebo Samuel for 3 touchdowns, and the secondary was exposed even further. Lamb is the best weapon in this offense, but we can also upgrade Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup. As long as Dak Prescott can stay upright, there should be yards and touchdowns in bunches this week for the Dallas receivers.

WR Drake London (ATL vs. TB) vs. Carlton Davis III

Atlanta went back to Desmond Ridder, and the results have been mixed. However, we should not judge this offense on their game last week against a stout Jets defense. The Falcons have a chance to right the ship against a Tampa Bay secondary that is giving up yards and points at a high clip. All three corners allow 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap or more and are being targeted roughly 20% of the time each. London has the best matchup against Davis, who is currently allowing 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap. This is a chance for the Atlanta offense to break out with London leading the way.

WR Davante Adams (LV vs. MIN) vs. Byron Murphy Jr.

The Vikings' defense has played much better over the past two months than how they started the season. That does not mean things will be easy for Murphy on the outside against Adams. Murphy will likely be asked to shadow the big receiver and will be targeted a lot. Murphy is currently allowing 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Jakobi Meyers will also have a great matchup on the other side against Mekhi Blackmon. The Vikings have found success in recent weeks by blitzing the quarterback. If Aiden O'Connell can get the ball out quickly, there should be plenty of room to run for these receivers.

TE Jake Ferguson (DAL vs. PHI)

Ferguson has one of the better matchups of the week and a quarterback who is playing at an MVP level. Ferguson has seen the second-most targets across the middle of the field, behind only CeeDee Lamb, and the Eagles have allowed more yards and catches across the middle than any team in football. Their secondary has struggled to cover anyone in recent weeks, and the Cowboys are firing on all cylinders. Ferguson has at least 12 fantasy points in four of his last six games and is coming off the game-winning touchdown last week. Start Ferguson with confidence this week in what could be a top-five finish for the big tight end.

TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs. TB)

Atlanta has made it nearly impossible to trust Pitts, or really any of their major offensive weapons. This week, however, the matchup is too good to ignore, and Pitts should once again be plugged into your lineup if you have held onto him. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most yards to opposing tight ends and has allowed a ton of volume through the air overall. Pitts led the team in catches and yards last week and should see a fair amount of volume again this week. With some big tight ends on byes this week, it is time to fire up Pitts once again.