This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Michael Pittman Jr (IND vs. TB) vs. Carlton Davis III
A combination of injuries and poor play have plagued the Tampa Bay secondary this week. They are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and had their top 2 corners (Davis and Jamel Dean) leave week 11 with injuries. Pittman is in a prime spot with his high volume and the return of Jonathan Taylor at full strength. Davis is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap on the perimeter and is being targeted 21% of the time. Pittman can be upgraded, with Alec Pierce getting FLEX consideration on the other side.
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF vs. PHI) vs. Darius Slay
This is one of the most anticipated games of the weekend and what most thought could be a Super Bowl preview. The Bills have not lived up to that recently but have a chance to right the ship against the Eagles. Philadelphia is currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year. The secondary had once been a strength, with Slay and James Bradberry both playing shadow coverage, but the sheer volume they have faced this year has made them stumble. Diggs is the best bet to continue his high target share, with Gabe Davis also slated to benefit on the other side. Slay currently allows 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and has not found his groove like in previous seasons. If the Bills can limit the drops and Josh Allen can protect the ball, this should be one of the more competitive games of the season.
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs. TEN) vs. Roger McCreary
Not a lot has gone right for Carolina this season outside of Adam Thielen proving he had a lot left in the tank. Bryce Young has struggled to find any consistency outside of Thielen, but that should work to his benefit this week. Thielen has the best matchup against McCreary in the slot who is currently allowing 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Neither team has been playing well this season, but look for Young to lean on Thielen again this week. That should provide a high volume of targets and a solid fantasy day at a discounted price.
WR Marquise Brown (ARZ vs. LAR) vs. Duke Shelley
Not a lot has gone right for Brown since the return of Kyler Murray, but that could all change this week with a solid matchup against the Rams. This secondary has not played extremely well and ranks near the middle of the pack in most categories. Shelley has been the biggest liability and is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 29% of the time. Brown is too talented not to be involved in this offense. Look for his targets to increase this week and for Kyler to start taking shots down the field in his direction.
WR Jakobi Meyers (LV vs. KC) vs. Jaylen Watson
Meyers had a great run of taking targets from Davante Adams earlier this season but has been quiet over the past few weeks. That could all change this week with a great matchup against Watson. Adams will have to contend with shadow coverage from L'Jarius Sneed, and that will leave Watson alone with Meyers. This leaves a great matchup for the offense as Watson is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 26% of the time. Adams moves all over the field, and Sneed should be tasked with following. This will leave Meyers in great matchups across the board and should be upgraded into flex/WR2 territory.
WR Puka Nacua (LAR vs. ARZ) vs. Marco Wilson
The health of Cooper Kupp is the biggest story heading into this matchup, but that will not change the perimeter coverage for the Cardinals. Wilson has struggled mightily against perimeter receivers and is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. Nacua has a great matchup whether Kupp plays or not but can be upgraded to WR1 status if Kupp is ruled out. Watch the injury report heading into the weekend and buy the shares of Nacua while the price is down.
TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs. JAX)
Schultz has emerged as one of the most consistent tight ends in the league as C.J. Stroud continues to lead this passing attack. He has scored 11+ fantasy points in six out of his last seven games and scored a touchdown in five. He is quickly approaching must-start status in all formats, with a high ceiling of 16+ fantasy points in three out of his last seven. Jacksonville ranks near the middle of the pack against tight ends, but his target share makes him more than just a streaming option for the rest of the season.
TE Trey McBride (ARZ vs. LAR)
Much like Schultz, McBride has been on a tear lately and is approaching must-start territory as well. He has scored 21+ fantasy points in two out of his last four games, with single digits in the other two. We can excuse the 5-point dud with Clayton Tune at quarterback and also accept his 9-point performance as a safe floor for most tight ends. The biggest takeaway is he has 16 targets in the two games with Kyler Murray and has become a favorite target at the expense of Marquise Brown. McBride is easily a top 10 play this week and could approach top 5 status if his volume continues.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs. CAR) vs. Donte Jackson
Tennessee receivers should be downgraded this week for a few reasons. Will Levis has not taken steps forward in recent weeks and has struggled to consistently get the ball out. Pair that with Carolina facing the least number of passing attempts in the league due to their porous run defense, and that is a recipe for disaster. Carolina has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, not due to skill but instead due to low volume. Look for Tennessee to lean heavily on Derek Henry and run the ball this week. Downgrade the whole receiver group this week in what is not a favorable situation.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs. CLE) vs. Martin Emerson Jr
The Broncos have been playing well over their past five games, but they have not faced a secondary like the Browns yet this season. Cleveland currently allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the fewest yards overall to the position. Russell Wilson has lived on short, quick throws and using his legs in recent weeks, but yards will be hard to come by. Emerson is allowing just 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. Downgrade Denver receivers across the board in what has quickly become one of the toughest defensive matchups in the NFL.
WR Drake London (ATL vs. NO) vs. Paulson Adebo
There are a lot of storylines in this game, and almost none of them work in Atlanta's favor. Even with Marshon Lattimore expected to miss the game, Adebo has not missed a beat filling in for him. Desmond Ridder is also expected to be back at quarterback, and that downgrades their receivers before the game even starts. Adebo is currently allowing 0.23 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted less than 20% of the time. This is going to be a tough divisional matchup against a good defense. Downgrade all Atlanta skill players in this one.
WR Khalil Shakir (BUF vs. PHI) vs. Bradley Roby
Roby caught a big break last week when Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped the game-winning touchdown as he was beaten badly. However, that one play aside, Roby has been the best corner in Philadelphia's defense this season. He currently allows just 0.09 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 14% of the time. Teams are pushing the ball to the outside against the Eagles, and that does not bode well for Shakir this week.
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs. DEN) vs. Patrick Surtain II
There are a lot of things working against Cleveland receivers this week. They are without starter Deshaun Watson, and despite pulling out a win last week, they are facing a red-hot Denver defense this week. The Broncos giving up 70 to the Dolphins feels like a distant memory as they have reeled off five wins in a row and are taking the ball away at a high rate. Cooper will get the shadow treatment from Surtain this week and should be downgraded. David Njoku saw the biggest increase in targets without Watson under center, and the team is likely to lean on the run, which has been the biggest weakness for this defense in recent weeks. Avoid Cooper this week in this tough matchup.
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs. PIT) vs. Joey Porter Jr.
Not only is Chase dealing with losing Joe Burrow, but he also has to contend with one of the newest shadow corners in the league. Porter has taken over the Pittsburgh secondary recently and has done a great job limiting Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins in shadow situations. Chase is the best receiver of the group but will be without his starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Porter is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 19% of the time. Levi Wallace is being picked on at a high rate on the other side and could allow for a big game from Tee Higgins if he is healthy this week. Chase is too good to bench, but we should temper expectations in a tougher-than-usual matchup.
TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs. CIN)
Freiermuth is back and healthy this week, but that does not mean he should be in your lineups. This has less to do with how tough the Bengals are against tight ends and more with how poorly he has played in this offense. Freiermuth has 7 or fewer yards in four of his last five games and just 14 targets combined. He is a touchdown-dependent streaming option with a very low floor right now. Even without Matt Canada, this offense needs to come a long way before he can be trusted at all.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs. ARZ)
Higbee may be more in play if Cooper Kupp does not play this week, but he should not be relied on. With Kupp exiting early last week, he registered just 3 fantasy points. The Rams offense is not clicking right now. They have Matthew Stafford and Kryen Williams back this week but will likely continue to struggle. Arizona has allowed the seventh-fewest yards to opposing tight ends and is a tough matchup. Avoid Higbee and leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs right now.