This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Just to switch it up a bit this week, let's start with the bad matchups.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs IND) vs Kenny Moore II
Thielen has looked rejuvenated in Carolina and has almost surpassed his numbers from the entirety of last season. This week, however, he gets a tough matchup against the Colts. Moore has played extremely well at slot corner and is holding opposing receivers to just 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap. The biggest stat is he is being targeted just 11% of the time. Thielen has excelled through high volume, and that could run into issues this week against a good Indianapolis secondary.
WR DeVonta Smith (PHI vs DAL) vs DaRon Bland
Dallas has been one of the best defenses in the league this season. Even after losing Trevon Diggs, they are currently allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Bland has moved to the outside to take over and is playing man coverage nearly 70% of the time. He currently allows just 0.25 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. This divisional game will go a long way in shaping the rest of the season and will be strength against strength. Give the slight edge to the Dallas defense over the Philadelphia offense.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs NYJ) vs Michael Carter II
The Jets defense has kept them in games all season and is led by their elite secondary. Carter has played extremely well as slot corner and is allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted less than 20% of the time. The defense as a whole is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and should continue that trend. Allen has played well in this offense and is being targeted at a high rate. Downgrade him slightly in this tough matchup.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs BAL) vs Marlon Humphrey
The Ravens have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season. They got a big boost with the return of Humphrey and will have a tough test against Seattle this week. Receivers are averaging 5.7 yards per target and just 9.7 yards per reception as a secondary, both lowest in the league. Humphrey will see equal parts Lockett and DK Metcalf. Both receivers could struggle this week against an elite Baltimore defense. Downgrade the group of Seattle receivers.
WR DJ Moore (CHI vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
Moore has had his ups and downs this season and is walking into a tough matchup that could lead to a low this week. Lattimore normally shadows the top opposing receiver and could do so again this week. The Bears have struggled on offense all season, especially without Justin Fields. Lattimore is allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Downgrade Moore in a tough matchup against the Saints' defense.
WR Michael Thomas (NO vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
Johnson made a last-minute request to be traded, but Chicago did not pull the trigger earlier this week. Their defense got a big boost with Montez Sweat and keeping Johnson. This week, Johnson will be chasing Thomas around the field all day and will have the upper hand. Johnson is allowing just 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. This matchup will be key to the game as a whole, with the slight edge going to Chicago.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs NO)
Kmet has had a few good games this season but has quickly gone downhill with Tyson Bagent under center. He had a glimmer of a good game last week with 10 catches, but this offense is struggling to move the ball consistently and to score. Kmet should be viewed as a last-ditch start if you have no other options against this defense. New Orleans has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and should easily continue that trend this week.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs GB)
Higbee continues to fall off the map after the return of Cooper Kupp and is in an outright cut territory. He is averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game since the return of Kupp. He is also dealing with an injury to Matthew Stafford and could see those numbers drop even further. Green Bay ranks near the middle of the pack against tight ends, and mixed with the poor performance, Higbee is a must-sit this week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs ARZ) vs Marco Wilson
Arizona has struggled in the secondary all season. They are currently allowing the 11th most fantasy points to the position and have dealt with injuries all over the field. Wilson has been the only constant this season and has not played extremely well. He is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and has a rookie who has only played 58 snaps this season on the other side. Cooper should also see a bump with Donovan Peoples-Jones traded. Look for a game with a lot of targets this week and a solid chance to find the end zone.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs PHI) Sydney Brown
For as good as the Philadelphia run defense has been, the pass defense has struggled. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been passable on the outside, but Brown has struggled mightily in the slot. He currently allows 0.65 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 32% of the time. This has the makings for a high-scoring game, and Lamb has been on a tear. Buy into the high price on Lamb this week, as he should be one of the most productive receivers.
WR Chris Olave (NO vs CHI) Tyrique Stevenson
The Bears' defense has been full of holes all season. Despite the trade for Montez Sweat, they have done nothing to shore up the secondary. Stevenson has not played well on the outside and is currently lowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. Olave has been almost allergic to the end zone but has been relied on in key spots to move the chains. Look for high usage this week in a great matchup against the Bears.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs PIT) vs Levi Wallace
Hopkins got a huge boost when Will Levis took over under center last week. He finished with over 100 yards and 3 touchdowns. While we should not expect a similar stat line, Hopkins is walking into a great matchup against the Steelers. Wallace has been routinely picked on this season and is currently allowing 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 30% of the time. Hopkins has all the tools to succeed, and it will all come down to how Levis performs in his first career road start.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs NE) vs J.C. Jackson
The days of New England being an elite defense has started to slip away. Sam Howell put up big numbers against Philadelphia last week and has the chance to do it again against the Patriots. McLaurin is the best receiver and overall offensive weapon on this team. He will get the chance to line up opposite Jackson, who has struggled. He is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 31% of the time. McLaurin got the best of Darius Slay last week and has an even better matchup this week.
WR Drake London (ATL vs MIN) vs Akayleb Evans
The Vikings have played inspired football in recent weeks, but that could all come to an end with the injury to Kirk Cousins. This defense has leaned into their 52% blitz rate and have used it to cover up their issues on the back end. The secondary ranks 10th in points allowed to opposing receivers after being bottom 5 in earlier weeks. Taylor Heineke takes over under center and should boost London and Kyle Pitts. This offense has a chance to move the ball through the air against this secondary. Look for a solid day for London and this offense as a whole.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs CIN)
Kincaid made the best of Dawson Knox going on the IR. He finished with 5 catches on 7 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. He fit in just like another receiver in this offense and should see his role continue to grow in the coming weeks. This looks to be a high-scoring game against the Bengals, who are allowing the 15th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Look for Kincaid to solidify his role in this offense and have similar upside as Sam LaPorta.
TE Trey McBride (ARZ vs CLE)
Much like Kincaid, McBride has seen a huge uptick in volume due to an injury in front of him. McBride has soaked up all of the targets from Zach Ertz and has made the best of it. McBride had 9 catches last week and should be heavily leaned on again against a tough Cleveland defense. With everyone hurting for tight ends this season, McBride is a great streaming option if needed.