This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Mike Evans (TB vs MIN) vs Andrew Booth Jr
The departure of Tom Brady is going to be the biggest storyline with this offense, but the matchup against the Vikings’ secondary is too good to pass up. This defense allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers last season and is transitioning almost the entire secondary. Booth allowed a paltry 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap last season and will likely see the most of Evans this week. Chris Godwin also figures to get a lot of work this week but draws the tougher matchup against Byron Murphy in the slot. Baker Mayfield is the quarterback this week and is a big reason why there is not a bigger boost for this offense.
WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs LAC) vs J.C. Jackson
Anyone lined up opposite Tyreek Hill is likely to get good looks in the offense, with the defense providing help to the other side of the field. Waddle also has the benefit of a great matchup this week. Jackson had a down season while allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and will look to bounce back this year. A healthy Tua Tagovailoa and an offense that is going to lean on the pass due to health concerns in the backfield should bring about big days for both Waddle and Hill this week.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs LAR) vs Cobie Durant
The Rams struggled against the pass under the best circumstances last year, and this season, they are without Jalen Ramsey and Troy Hill. There has been a near-full transition in the secondary for the Rams, and that should set up both Lockett and DK Metcalf for big days to open the season. In limited appearances last season, Durant allowed 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snap. This is a much better number than both perimeter players, but Lockett lines up all over the field and should see a good mix of all three starting corners. Either receiver should be considered this week, with Lockett getting the slight edge due to price and or availability.
WR Marquise Brown (ARZ vs WAS) vs Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
The outlook in Arizona does not look great to start the season, but with a team that is constantly playing from behind, they are going to have to throw the ball to someone. Joshua Dobbs was named the starter, and he is going to look for Brown in a matchup against rookie Forbes. Kendall Fuller was the lone bright spot in this secondary last season, and he spent more than 74% on the right side of the field. Brown and Forbes will be lined up most of the night, and the edge should go to the veteran Brown, even with the downgrade at quarterback.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs LV) vs Marcus Peters
Peters is not the same feared name he has been in the past. He allowed 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap last season and will draw the big-bodied Sutton to start the season. Sutton is going to be the top option in this offense to start the year. Javonte Williams is coming back slow from an injury, Jerry Jeudy is currently hurt, and Tim Patrick is on the IR. Sutton should see a big jump in targets to start the season and has all the skills to do something with them. Look for this offense to start much better than last year under new head coach Sean Payton.
WR D.J. Chark Jr (CAR vs ATL) vs Mike Hughes
This divisional matchup is going to have several new faces to start the season. Chark is going to get the chance to start his tenure with Carolina with a bang as he draws coverage from Hughes. This matchup should go all Chark, as Hughes has had a rough start to his career. He has only started 18 of his 57 career games and is giving up almost 0.42 fantasy points per coverage snap. Chark does best with high volume and only has Adam Thielen to contend with in the offense right now. Look for a solid start from Chark.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs SEA)
Higbee may be the only man standing for Matthew Stafford, as Cooper Kupp has been ruled out for week 1. On top of the additional targets that should come Higbee’s way, Seattle gave up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and is poised to fall in the same range this season. Higbee got lost in the mix last season but may be the only trusted option, especially in the red zone, to start this year.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs IND)
Engram is suddenly playing in an offense that has options and a young quarterback who is looking to take a big leap forward this season. Across both games last season, Engram racked up 20.8 fantasy points against the Colts, and the defense allowed 8+ fantasy points to tight ends 12 times. The tight end position is very thin this year, and Engram should find himself squarely in the TE1 category most weeks.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Davante Adams (LV vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Adams had little issue with Surtain last season, posting a total of 16 catches for 252 yards and 2 touchdowns against Denver in their matchups last season. However, Denver allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Surtain is one of the best cover corners in the league. Adams will be breaking in a new quarterback, and Surtain has another year to take the lead of this defense. Adams is not a guy you would bench in your season-long league, but do not expect him to reach the numbers of last season this week.
WR Mike Williams (LAC vs MIA) vs Xavien Howard
Similar to Adams and Surtain above, Williams got the better of Howard in their meeting last season. HE walked away with 6 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. However, Howard had a down year overall as he was dealing with nagging injuries and was constantly asked to shadow top receivers. Look for Howard to get back on track to start the year, as he is one of the top cover corners in the NFL. He traveled with Williams on 29 of his 39 routes last year and should see similar coverage this week. Keenan Allen sees a bump with Jalen Ramsey sidelined and Williams a slight downgrade with the tough coverage from Williams.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
There is a lot up in the air with this matchup. Hopkins is coming off an injury and playing for a new team, and Lattimore was limited to just 7 games last season. With Treylon Burks not at 100% to start the season, Hopkins is going to draw the top coverage. This may not be a full shadow situation from Lattimore, but he tends to see the top receiver week in and week out. The Titans love to run the ball, and there are a lot of question marks surrounding this offense to start the season. Downgrade Hopkins until the direction of this offense gets sorted out.
WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs BUF) vs Tre'Davious White
Wilson has been tabbed for a big breakout season with Aaron Rodgers under center, but he has a tough test to start the year against White. Wilson walked away with 6 catches for 78 yards in their meeting last season, but he is going to find it tough against a Buffalo defense at full strength. White is an elite cover corner who should see all of Wison’s routes on the outside. The Jets may push him to the slot more than usual to get a better matchup, but he should be downgraded overall against the stingy coverage of White.
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs CIN) vs Chidobe Awuzie
Awuzie was leading this secondary to greatness last season before a season-ending injury while covering Cooper. Before he got hurt in that game, Awuzie held Cooper to 0 catches on 2 targets on 13 routes. That is a small sample size, but it is a good bet that Awuzie will see a lot of Cooper to start the season. Downgrade Cooper as the Browns look to have a full season under Deshaun Watson and figure out what type of offense they will be moving forward. It is a tough draw to start the season against a healthy Awuzie.
WR DeVante Parker (NE vs PHI) vs James Bradberry
The Eagles duo of Bradberry and Darius Slay were elite on the outside to the point that they could play their sides without worrying who was lining up against them. New England has given the reins back to Mac Jones but has not shown a lot of confidence in the big quarterback. The addition of Juju Smith Schuster in the slot is going to eat into the targets for Parker on top of the tough coverage from Bradberry. Parker is mostly a streaming option this season and should be avoided this week.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs CAR)
There is a lot of pain associated with Pitts in fantasy football. He has never quite lived up to the potential but is constantly in the conversation because of how thin the position is. The Panthers allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points and held Pitts to 5 points or less in half of their career matchups. Pitts should be avoided until he can show up consistently in this offense.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs GB)
Kmet has long been a touchdown-dependent tight end, but he also draws a tough matchup against the Packers this week. Green Bay allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season, and Kmet has averaged 6 points against Green Bay across their six career meetings. Tight end is a very thin position, but not thin enough to start Kmet this week.