Reading the Defense, Week 6

Tripp Brebner III's Reading the Defense, Week 6 Tripp Brebner III Published 10/13/2023

Last week's edition of Reading the Defense contemplated surprises among the top 25 scorers among fantasy defensive linemen and linebackers as well as highly drafted players surprisingly absent from those lists on Footballguys.com. After four weeks, Footballguy Adam Harstad has found that preseason ADP and in-season results are roughly equally predictive of end-of-year finish.

In 2013, Harstad wondered how many weeks into the season would pass before to-date scoring became more similar to year-end finish than preseason ADP. His analysis of the 2012 season and several subsequent seasons fairly consistently concluded upon an answer around the quarter-pole of the NFL season.

Harstad conducted his analysis only for skill-position players. Average draft position for individual defensive players is far less similar from source to source than that for offensive players, so parallel analysis is futile.

This week's edition of the column covers defensive backs. No position on either side of the line of scrimmage presents more uncertainty to preseason rankers and drafters. Defensive backs' roles can change from week to week or even in-game. The margins between the top players and replacement-level options are the thinnest in most scoring systems.

Real Situations, Fantasy Value

As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines, talent, situation, and opportunity are the three legs that support the stool of fantasy football value. Of these, situation is perhaps the most complex.

Team context that supports fantasy production informs "situation." Los Angeles defensive tackle Aaron Donald averaged nearly eleven quarterback sacks per season through his first nine years in the NFL. He collected just five in eleven starts during the Rams' stunning 2022 collapse. The number of quarterback pressures the team generated last year was by far the lowest since Pro-Football-Reference.com began reporting the statistic in 2018. The Rams again rank near the bottom of the league in generating pressure in 2023, and Donald is well off the pace necessary for a double-digit sack season.

Lavonte David played middle linebacker for the Buccaneers for the first four seasons of his career and made at least 139 tackles each season. When undersized rookie Kwon Alexander joined the team in 2015, David began to play the weak side more frequently. Alexander was the protected linebacker to whom Tampa Bay's over-front spilled tackles. Both linebackers played full-time every game in the 2016 season. Alexander collected 145 tackles to David's 87.

The performance of the team around almost any fantasy asset affects his production. A player's role, too, greatly impacts his opportunities to make plays. Defensive scheme furthermore influences statistical output. Two safeties that frequently play deep in zone coverage leave their linebackers a huge area of the field to patrol. With more ground to cover, these linebackers must make more tackles.

Defenders' Counteracting Situations

Surrounding talent, player deployment, and defensive scheme inform the situational value of defensive backs. Unfortunately, the three rarely work in concert to increase statistical production. Game flow can even alter situational value in-game. A box safety on a good team will have opportunities to make plays behind the line of scrimmage; however, if the team builds a huge lead, the defense will fall back into a two-high shell. The linebackers, rather than the safeties, will compile more tackles, as Pro Football Focus's Jon Macri reports above.

Linebackers are not immune from counteracting situations. The Bills are a predominantly two-high team. Their linebackers, however, have not been high-volume tacklers. Instead, the Bills' defense very effectively gets off the field. In Week 5, however, Terrel Bernard compiled 16 tackles while his unit played a season-high 82 snaps in a game the Jaguars controlled.

Five, six, and seven years ago, box safeties dominated defensive backs' leaderboards for fantasy points. Box safeties played the majority of their snaps in the second level of their defenses, providing run support and facing tight ends in man coverage. Since then, the use of both zone coverage and two-high shells has increased dramatically.

The increase in zone coverages concentrates tackles in the linebacker position at the expense of others, including safety. While a pre-snap two-high shell does necessitate a two-high coverage, it typically means the two safeties will operate interchangeably. Neither plays a majority of snaps in the box. Each safety neutralizes the other's fantasy value. All things being equal, both are replacement-level defensive backs in fantasy leagues.

The writer of this column has been tracking player deployment and defensive scheme tendencies that impact fantasy value for years. A spreadsheet record is publicly available here.

2023 Defensive Back Values by Prototype

The Slot Defender

Former Titan Logan Ryan could be credited with single-handedly breaking the stranglehold of box safeties on the DB leaderboard if not for prevailing defensive trends. Ryan played almost exclusively in the slot, an alignment which proved advantageous for rushing the passer. He scored 4.5 quarterback sacks to complement 113 combined tackles. He led the league in targets by opposing quarterbacks, driving his tackle total beyond anything reasonably expected from a career cornerback.

Ryan finished as the top overall fantasy defensive back in 2019 by Footballguys' scoring. Indianapolis's Kenny Moore II duplicated the feat in 2021. In 2022, Kansas City's L'Jarius Sneed became the third slot defender in three years to clear the milestone of 100 combined tackles.

Sneed finished as the second-overall defensive back in fantasy scoring last season. His success made him the overwhelming favorite to lead all fantasy cornerbacks in scoring in 2023. The problem with this logic was the risk that Sneed wouldn't play slot this season. Kansas City Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo advised last summer that Trent McDuffie was as likely to occupy the role as Sneed.

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McDuffie has been the primary slot defender in each of the five weeks, while Sneed has shadowed opposing WR1s at times. McDuffie resides just outside the top 25 defensive backs on the Footballguys' leaderboard for the position and is a good bet to rise. He leads all cornerbacks in blitz attempts with 20, 8 ahead of the next cornerback, Cincinnati's Mike Hilton.

A slot defender is a very risky fantasy investment. Such a player can easily, without warning, switch to the boundary like Sneed did in Week 14 of 2022. New England's Myles Bryant currently resides among the top 25 scorers at defensive back; however, his inconsistent playing time makes him no more than a dart throw. Dallas's DaRon Bland is the top-scoring slot defender, but his production relies on the two touchdowns he's scored.

Seattle rookie Devon Witherspoon compiled a highlight reel in one game versus the Giants with a pick-six and two sacks, playing almost exclusively in the slot. He had played the previous two games on the boundary and moved inside because Coby Bryant missed the New York game with a short-term injury. The Seahawks' best three corners, to this writer's eye, are Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Michael Jackson. Should Seattle coaches eventually agree, Witherspoon could remain in among the top 25 defensive backs as the primary slot defender in Seattle.

The Last Line of Defense

The top fantasy defensive back from 2022 exemplifies a prototype that predates the slot defender as a fantasy presence. Houston's Jalen Pitre tied Budda Baker with 147 combined tackles, the most since NFL stat keepers began recording assisted tackles in 1994. The Texans played more snaps than any other defense last year. Their defensive tackles and linebackers were terrible, routinely allowing ball carriers into the third level of the defense. Pitre led the league in tackles collected in run defense as tracked by Pro Football Focus.

Jessie Bates III and Minkah Fitzpatrick are among notable deep safeties whose past production benefited from this formula. Jalen Pitre might yet prove to be a player talented enough to remain a fantasy asset; however, the verdict is still out after just two complete games. After collecting just 2 tackles in a Week-4 defeat of the Steelers, Pitre rebounded with 13 last week versus the Falcons. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for 13 receptions. Coincidence?

Two deep safeties are piling up tackles for weak teams en route to top-ten placement through five weeks. Minnesota's Camryn Bynum and Green Bay's Rudy Ford should remain in fantasy line-ups for as long as they can hold onto their jobs in real life. One must wonder if Vikings brass will want to see what they have in 2022 first-rounder Lewis Cine.

Ford's backup is Jonathan Owens. In Houston last year, Owens not only played alongside Pitre but swapped roles with him midseason. Owens made 69 combined tackles in run defense for the Texans, good for third in the league behind Pitre and Grant Delpit, at an average depth of 10.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Ford is leading the league in run stops this season while allowing 10.3 yards per carry.

The Box Safety

NFL teams' use of box safeties has declined with their impact on the game. They've not lost all relevance, though. Several rank among the top 25 scoring defensive backs, and two are proving free squares for fantasy gamers. Those with good sources knew Julian Blackmon would play strong safety in Gus Bradley's Cover-3 defense this season, long a plum role for fantasy. He's on pace for 139 tackles.

K'Von Wallace couldn't make the Eagles' 53 in the final year of his rookie deal. His former defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, added him to the Cardinals' roster on the eve of the regular season and inserted him into the starting line-up. Wallace is just one tackle behind Blackmon through five weeks.

The biggest sell of the current season among defensive backs exemplifies counteracting situations for the position. The Jets' Jordan Whitehead set a new season-long high in interceptions in the first week of 2023 (3). He's collected all of five tackles in two starts alongside Tony Adams, games in which he has played primarily deep. Adams missed Weeks 2-4 and was replaced by Adrian Amos. Whitehead played closer to the line of scrimmage in those games, collecting 23 combined tackles, while Amos played deep more often. With Adams healthy again, Whitehead is unsafe to start.

The Split Safety

A team that plays its safeties interchangeably but aggressively can support a defensive back with fantasy value, thanks to the thin margins at the position. Cincinnati's Dax Hill is not only piling up tackles but adding big plays. The 2022 first-rounder looks like the latest in a long line of fantasy-relevant safeties in the Queen City of the Midwest.

Like Julian Blackmon, Jason Pinnock of the Giants was a known quantity all summer who seemed to hide from the masses in plain sight. His edge in fantasy points over running mate Xavier McKinney is due to a pick-six in Week 5. The aggressive, downhill nature of Don Martindale's defense makes Pinnock a reasonable bet to remain in the top 25 at the position.

2023 Defensive Back Disappointments

The position has renewed its role as a perennial train wreck for preseason expectations among fantasy gamers. Multiple notable names have missed time due to injuries, including the consensus DB1, Derwin James Jr. Jalen Pitre, Budda Baker, Justin Simmons, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, Ryan Neal, Donovan Wilson, Trevon Diggs, Jalen Ramsey, Riq Woolen, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have all missed games, and several are on the reserve/injured list. Jeremy Chinn and Isaiah Simmons, meanwhile, are playing minor roles for their respective teams despite good health.

Jalen Pitre and Jaquan Brisker both broke out as rookies in 2022. Fantasy gamers and dynasty writers alike anointed them the next generation of stars at their position. Both are playing as split safeties on conservative defenses that frequently utilize two-high coverages. Both of their franchises invested heavily last spring in linebackers and defensive tackles to stop the run in front of them. Brisker's Bears, in particular, have too many mouths to feed with big-money free agents T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds arriving in Chicago to replace former UDFAs Jack Sanborn and Nicholas Morrow at linebacker.

Another breakout safety of the 2022 season, Talanoa Hufanga already had quality linebackers in front of him. Hufanga relied on big plays to fuel his finish among the top fantasy defensive backs. His only career game with double-digit tackles came against Justin Fields in a monsoon at Soldier Field, clearly a false indicator in hindsight.

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense will track trends and analyze anomalies each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but also why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.

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