A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Dig Deeper: See our Consensus Quarterback Projections here >>>
Our staff came up with 14 total names, but there were four quarterbacks they really loved.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Players Receiving 6 Votes
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Jason Wood: Things couldn't have gone much worse for Wilson in Denver last season. However, the situation is now looking up. Denver made a significant coaching change by replacing Nathaniel Hackett with Sean Payton, arguably the most impactful coaching move in the league in years. Upon evaluating Denver's roster, it becomes evident that their underperformance in 2022 was not due to a lack of talent but rather a lack of clarity, discipline, and a modern offensive approach. With substantial upgrades on the offensive line and improved running back depth, it's crucial to erase the memories of the 2022 Broncos. This marks a true fresh start, and Wilson should resemble the perennial Pro Bowler we became accustomed to in Seattle rather than the train wreck we witnessed last season.
Dave Kluge: Wilson struggled during his first year in Denver. He set a career low in touchdown rate and had the highest interception rate since his rookie year. Without trying to play psychologist, it’s easy to understand how playing on a new team with a new coach in a new system for the first time in a decade could come with some growing pains. But the Broncos invested in their offensive line and brought in Sean Payton this offseason. Wilson is 34 years old now. While not especially young, that’s typically earlier than we see elite quarterbacks trend downward. He was a top-ten fantasy quarterback in eight straight seasons and top-three in four of those. He still possesses high-end upside and can be had at a significant discount this year.
Gary Davenport: There’s no sugarcoating what happened in Denver last year—Wilson’s first season with the Broncos was an unmitigated disaster. But in the long-ago era of 2020, Wilson was a top-five fantasy option in Seattle. In Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, Wilson has a quality pair of wide receivers at his disposal. And Sean Payton has to be considered a massive upgrade at head coach over the Nathaniel Hackett debacle last year. A two-time Super Bowl quarterback and nine-time Pro Bowler didn’t suddenly forget how to play quarterback, and Wilson’s only 34. A rebound year is coming.
Daniel Harms: We found out why the Seahawks didn’t Let Russ Cook last year with a coaching staff that allowed Wilson to have a ton of influence over the offense and offensive play calls. He burns the kitchen down. So the Broncos brought in a new head chef to install a new menu with some guard rails for Wilson and show in exactly what to put on the plate. They invested in the offensive line in free agency, which was a big part of the problem for Wilson in 2022, and he started to feel more comfortable running the ball recording nearly half of his rushing total over the last five games he played.
Corey Spala: To be straightforward, I see this 129th selection on a bet Sean Payton will resurrect the Super Bowl aspirations for Denver. Wilson has been declining in quarterback play — let’s hope superior coaching will find the solution. Denver has the supporting talent at all offensive positions, I like to think Payton will be like Doug Pederson was to Jacksonville.
Matt Waldman: It's difficult for any quarterback to transcend a bad supporting cast. Brett Favre, Tom Brady, and Kurt Warner endured critiques similar to Wilson before proving they weren't washed up. Wilson performed poorly as the season progressed, but the decline had a lot to do with the accumulation of poor performances from his teammates and staff. Early in the year, the film and charting of throws showed a different story about Wilson's play than the media narrative. After the first two games of 2022, his receivers dropped 13 passes -- 9 that were pinpoint. If caught, six of these drops would have been touchdowns. The public gives too much credit and/or blame to the figurehead of the team. When I initially scouted Wilson in college, I thought Sean Payton offered the best fit for Wilson in the NFL. With better coaching and health, I believe we'll see a rebound in 2023.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Haseley: There's a chance that Geno Smith peaked in his performance in 2022 and may not be able to replicate it in 2023. However, it's also possible that he has found his groove and the offensive system that suits his skills. Seattle took measures to enhance their running game by selecting Zach Charbonnet to go with Kenneth Walker, and they scored a valuable addition to their wide receiver corps by drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith had favorable circumstances in the previous season, and it's reasonable to assume that the team's position has improved for 2023.
Gary Davenport: Smith was eighth in the NFL in passing yards, led the league in completion percentage, ranked fourth in touchdown passes with 30, was eighth in air yards per attempt, and was a top-five fantasy option in many scoring systems in 2022. The Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njiba to a receivers room that already included Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And yet Smith is ranked outside the top-12 in terms of ADP this summer. Even in you’re concerned that last year was a fluke, Smith is a value. If you believe he can approach last year’s success, he’s the perfect late-round quarterback target.
Daniel Harms: Geno was the QB5 overall last season and QB9 in fantasy points per game but is currently being drafted as QB15. *Insert I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! meme here* They improved their offense by drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet, their offensive line is poised to be better than it’s been in years, and Geno enters his second season in Shane Waldron’s offense. He’s a sneaky Konami Code quarterback as well, with the eighth-most rushes at the quarterback position last season (68).
Ryan Weisse: I talked about Smith and seven other undervalued players in an article a few weeks ago. Smith's 2022 performance doesn't appear unrepeatable. He threw for 4,282 yards last year, just over 250 per game, and 30 touchdowns. With talented weapons like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and the newly-drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal, it's reasonable to expect similar production. With an improved supporting cast and offensive line in 2023, he has the potential to secure another top-five finish at the quarterback position.
Sam Wagman: Finally given the opportunity to cook, Geno didn't disappoint last year, notching career-high marks in nearly every statistical category. The team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba through the draft for him as well as giving him a nice contract extension, meaning the onus is on Geno to help this team make it back to having deep playoff runs. Currently going as the QB15 and deeper in some spots, Smith represents a unique opportunity to get a potential QB1 in the way back of your drafts this summer.
Chad Parsons: Smith has a new contract, unchallenged by a Round 1 rookie selection at the position, and Seattle bolstered his robust DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett duo with a splash of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith was a potential league-winner (especially in Superflex) coming from the depths of expectations last season. The fantasy community is pricing Smith as if a steep fall is of high confidence despite being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2022 and gaining weaponry.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Ben Cummins: Goff threw for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and ranked as the QB13 in fantasy points per game (17.4). Yet, he’s listed as the QB17 by ADP. He’ll easily beat that cost. Goff benefits from having one of the best offensive coordinators and offensive lines that both play to the strengths of his game, improved weapons surrounding Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a favorable fantasy playoff schedule with all dome games. In year one last season under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions ranked fifth in points and fourth in yards, and Goff now also gets to throw to 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams (after his six-game suspension), 2023 first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs, and 2023 second-round pick Sam LaPorta.
Jeff Bell: Goff finished as QB14 on a per-game basis and overall QB10 in 2022. His reward is QB17's placement on this list. This offseason, the Lions doubled down on offensive skill talent, overhauling their backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and adding Sam LaPorta to the tight end rotation. The backfield shift could signal an overall offensive trend. Despite a defense that allowed the fourth most points, the Lions still ran the ball at a rate in the top half of the league. With Montgomery replacing the bruising Jamaal Williams and Gibbs's passing acumen, run game usage could shift towards schemed usage in the passing game, helping further raise Goff's ceiling.
Andy Hicks: Finishing the 2022 season ranked inside the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks, Goff still is seen as a placeholder in fantasy circles. The Lions have progressed from one of the worst receiving units in the NFL in his first season for the team to a strong unit now. Goff has the full confidence of the coaching staff, and talks are beginning on an extension. The division opens up following the departure of Aaron Rodgers, and Goff will exceed his draft slot significantly. Last year's numbers can be improved upon.
Corey Spala: A perfect example of a quarterback to draft (later) when prioritizing other assets. Detroit upgraded their offense, while the defense is thought to remain bottom tier. The lack of rushing production finds balance from doing, well, just enough to be a weekly starter. Goff (QB10) averaged 17.1 PPG. For reference, Justin Herbert (QB11) averaged 17.0 ppg — Goff is a discount found in Round 10+.
Sigmund Bloom: Goff and the Lions already had one of the most productive and efficient offenses in the NFL last year. Now they've added two matchup nightmares in Jamhyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, and after he serves his six-game suspension, they'll have the addition of Jameson Williams' deep speed. How good can this passing game be with a set of weapons that no defense can adequately answer? It could be fun to have Goff on your roster as we learn the answer, especially in six-point passing touchdown leagues.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Jason Wood: Whether it’s fair or not, rushing statistics are worth significantly more than passing statistics. And that’s why Anthony Richardson’s ADP is off base. He has a cavernously wide range of outcomes, but most skew substantively higher than his cost. Despite his relative inexperience at Florida, he’ll have every opportunity to start immediately. Head coach Shane Steichen landed the Colts job after turning Jalen Hurts into an MVP-caliber dual-threat option, and Richardson is more athletic and a more gifted runner. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Cam Newton have shown us you can be an elite fantasy option without high-volume passing stats. Richardson doesn’t need to be a good passer to be a top-10 quarterback. Unless you think he won’t be the starter early in the season, he should be your top priority at the position if you don’t opt for one of the Big Three (Mahomes, Hurts, Allen) in the early rounds.
Phil Alexander: Enjoy the discount on Richardson while you can. It will only take a single flashy preseason highlight that shows off his otherworldly athleticism to send the rookie's ADP into the top six or seven quarterbacks. In the meantime, you can take advantage of your league mates who think Gardner Minshew poses a threat to Richardson's chances of opening the season as Indianapolis' starter to secure a quarterback in the late-single-digit rounds with a realistic chance of leading the position in rushing yards and touchdowns.
Jeff Bell: Richardson is the boom/bust quarterback pick of 2023. The range of outcomes could be sitting behind Gardner Minshew for most of the season or flirting with a top-end QB1 fantasy finish. Shane Steichen is the hot hand in quarterback development, working with rookie Justin Herbert followed by Jalen Hurts. But another former Florida Gator shows Richardson’s potential floor. In the final 11 games of 2011, Tim Tebow averaged 17.66 fantasy points per game despite only throwing for 150 yards per game, a number suitable for QB14 in 2022. At this valuation, Richardson’s downside is baked in. He can always be replaced on shallow benches if he is not playing, but a Week 1 start will immediately position him on the fringes of QB1 territory.
Sigmund Bloom: We all saw what Shane Steichen was able to do with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Richardson is bigger, faster, and more athletic, and he has a better runner than Hurts. There will be hiccups as Richardson learns what he can and can't get away with in the NFL, but even his bad games should be good for fantasy because he'll likely be in garbage time mode and racking up stats as a runner. We saw what Justin Fields was able to do last year with the Bears in a poor passing offense with low passing volume. That could be the floor for Richardson this year.
The Other 10
There was much consensus on the quarterbacks above being undervalued. But another 10 signal callers received attention too. Here they are.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Kevin Coleman: With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken at the helm of the offense, the Baltimore Ravens offense is expected to adopt a faster pace, aiming to increase their play frequency. Last season, the Ravens had one of the slower paces in the league, averaging a play every 41.8 seconds of real-time. However, under Monken's direction, we should see an uptick in tempo, leading to more opportunities for the offense to produce. Furthermore, Monken's system emphasizes passing and is designed to generate explosive plays. This shift in offensive strategy could translate into increased fantasy production for Jackson and the Ravens' offensive weapons. Jackson, in particular, will benefit from a system that maximizes his strengths as both a runner and a passer.
Sam Wagman: Most of the spotlight from new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's arrival has been placed on the perceived incoming loss of rushing plays for Lamar to juice up his fantasy stats, and maybe that is going to happen. When we compare it to the jump that he can make in the passing game, though, it's a fair trade-off. Monken was the architect of the Jameis Winston Tampa Bay years, where Winston threw tons of explosive plays, and we could see that carried over to Baltimore with now four quality pass-catching targets. The offense will run at a quicker pace, which is what Lamar prefers, and he will produce nicely.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Ryan Weisse: I jumped the gun and covered some of my favorite undervalued players a few weeks ago, but the good news is that they are still undervalued. Despite missing four games last season and being forced to leave two other games early, Tagovailoa finished as the QB15 in fantasy. Factoring in those two truncated appearances, he averaged over 25 fantasy points per game, which would make him a top-five fantasy quarterback. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his receiving weapons, Tagovailoa should be considered a top-10 quarterback option, at the very least, with the potential for a stellar fantasy season in 2023.
Christian Williams: Tagovailoa's 2022 season was a rollercoaster, primarily due to the horrific injury and the coverage around it. But in the 11 games he started and finished, he averaged 19.51 fantasy points. Over the entire season, that would have ranked just behind Justin Fields at QB8. With the introduction of De'Von Achane into the offense and consistency in Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme, Tagovailoa should improve on those numbers, pushing him to the brink of elite, top-five status. With an ADP of QB11, his upside is too much to pass up in that area of drafts.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Jeff Haseley: As a quarterback, Fields possesses the dual-threat ability that often sets players apart in terms of fantasy points. A prime example of this is Jalen Hurts, who rose to stardom last year by utilizing his legs and improving his passing game. Fields has already demonstrated his impressive rushing skills, but if he can further develop his passing abilities, he has the potential to become one of the elite quarterbacks in fantasy football. Chicago has also made strategic moves to upgrade their offensive weapons, giving Fields the tools he needs to succeed. With continued improvement, Fields has a strong chance of being ranked among the top three quarterbacks in the league.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Dave Kluge: How quick we are to forget that Herbert played a significant portion of last year with a painful rib injury and without his top weapons. Just the year prior, in Herbert’s rookie season, he was the QB2 in fantasy, behind only Josh Allen. Herbert has immense upside as both a passer and rusher. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler aren’t getting any younger, but the team invested a first-round pick in Quentin Johnston this year. Getting drafted as the QB8 after a disappointing sophomore campaign, Herbert has every opportunity to bounce back in 2023, remind everyone of his elite talent, and finish as the overall QB1.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Ben Cummins: Hurts was the QB1 in fantasy points per game (26.4) last season and is the favorite to finish there once again in 2023, yet he is currently QB3 by ADP. The NFL surprisingly did not outlaw the teammate push quarterback sneak, so Hurts should once again be expected to rack up rushing touchdowns after putting up 13 of them in 2022. And Hurts is also surrounded by one of the best supporting casts in the NFL, including an elite offensive line, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. And Philadelphia, after going 14-3 and sitting on many leads in second halves, is expected to regress, at least a bit, overall as a team meaning there will be more chances to score fantasy points this upcoming season due to more competitive game environments.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Andy Hicks: Lawrence is going to prove his generational talent in 2023. Last year was a strong development season with over 4000 passing yards and five rushing touchdowns. The addition of Calvin Ridley strongly portends better numbers as Jacksonville improve to become playoff contenders. His sixth finishing rank from 2022 seems a baseline and his upside is fantasy elite.
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Montgomery: At an ADP around 21 overall, Patrick Mahomes II should write a stern letter to all drafters who allow him to skate nearly two full rounds of a draft. The popular take is to wait on quarterbacks in a draft due to the lack of point disparity, which isn't an awful point. That being said, Mahomes is no normal player. He absolutely is worthy of breaking a rule and shouldn't skate away from the top seven picks of any draft, and seven may be too many as well. If you remove his rookie year, he averages 4791 yards passing with 40 total touchdowns. Be the so-called weirdo in your draft and take the sure-fire best player in the league. It's hard to win real and fantasy football without a solid quarterback.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Chad Parsons: Prescott had his worst fantasy finish (QB11 in aPPG) of the past four years of his career and is now priced around that floor for 2023. Michaell Gallup was a shell of himself but likely fully healthy this season, and Brandin Cooks is a significant addition whether he wins the WR2 job or Gallup rebounds enough to push Cooks to WR3. Either way, Prescott has a strong, wide receiver corps for the first time in multiple seasons. Prescott adds enough rushing upside to pace most of the position and has three top-six finishes in his career to point to upside far beyond his cost.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Kevin Coleman: Rodgers had a down year last year for the Green Bay Packers. He threw just 26 touchdown passes while also throwing 12 interceptions—the third most in his career. However, with him moving to New York this off-season, there is still hope for him this season to be an undervalued fantasy asset. He has an elite wide receiver again in Garrett Wilson and, depending on Breece Hall’s health, a top-five back. The other supporting cast around him is also better, and we could see an efficient low-end QB1 season from Rodgers this year.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Christian Williams: Watson's inconsistencies upon his arrival made fantasy managers pause heading into 2023, and rightfully so. His command of the offense was nonexistent, and the rustiness was apparent. The Browns committed to a different approach this offseason, adding Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin, and Cedric Tillman to the receiver room while letting Kareem Hunt walk in free agency. A spread passing attack is where Watson was most comfortable during his near-MVP seasons in Houston, and the Browns seem ready to transition to that. Watson's elite fantasy upside with increased passing volume is not reflected in his ADP of QB9, rendering him one of the most undervalued quarterbacks available in drafts.