Prop Talk Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 11 Recap- N/A

We took Week 11 off due to some medical issues I was having, but we are not back for Week 12. It’s time to get back to winning ways.

Josh Allen Over 261.5 Passing Yards-

This number just seems a bit too low this week, given the only way for the Bills to move the ball seemingly is through the air. The Eagles are one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL but have struggled to stop just about anyone through the air at the moment. While Philadelphia did look good last week against the Chiefs, that may be more of a Chiefs issue and all of the injuries they’ve sustained rather than this defense becoming dominant. This is the same defense that in the two prior games allowed 374 and 397 yards to Dak Prescott and Sam Howell.

Saquon Barkley Over 98.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

How motivated are the Patriots to be playing against the Giants as a 2-9 team coming off the bye? It would seem that you naturally would just be going through the motions at this point in the season. Saquon has looked great over the last few weeks as he’s topped 100 rushing and receiving yards in three of his last four games. Only three running backs have topped the 98.5 number against this Patriots defense, but

Gardner Minshew Over 246.5 Passing Yards

Minshew and the Colts' passing attack has struggled over the last few weeks. However, the strength of schedule eases up considerably this week compared to the gauntlet of defenses that they’ve faced over the last several weeks. The Colts have faced New England, Carolina, New Orleans, and Cleveland over the last four games with three of those teams being some of the best defenses in the NFL and New England being an above-average passing defense. Minshew has shown some bright spots, particularly in the game against Cleveland in which he threw for 305 yards, becoming the only player to top the 300-yard mark against the Browns this season. For the Buccaneers, this week is shaping up to be a bit of a disaster. They’re already one of the worst secondaries in the NFL allowing the second-most passing yards this season, but they’re also without Jamel Dean who is their best corner, and potentially Carlton Davis this week. The loss of Dean is a critical one as this should open up plenty of opportunity for Michael Pittman this week. With Tampa Bay having one of the league’s best run-stopping units, expect the Colts to throw early and often in this game.

Russell Wilson Over 189.5 Passing Yards

The Browns’ defense has been very good allowing only 167 passing yards this season. However, they are using a bit of smoke and mirrors to put up such great numbers. The schedule has been incredibly fortunate for the Browns this season as they’ve faced Ryan Tannehill, Clayton Tune, Kenny Pickett twice, Joe Burrow in his first game of the season when he was still clearly injured, and Lamar Jackson who has struggled against the Browns in their two outings. The Browns will also be without their top corner Denzel Ward as well as the free safety spot is going to be very thin as Juan Thornhill looks like he will return from injury, but the Browns did lose backup safety Rodney McLeod for the year leaving undrafted rookie Ronnie Hickman as the backup safety so if anything happens to Thornhill the Browns will be in for a long day. Russell Wilson has been solid as of late topping the 189.5 passing yards in three of his last four games. He’s been a completion percentage game manager, while not necessarily taking the deep shots that we became accustomed to in his time in Seattle. Instead, he’s completing 69% of his passes compared to his career average of 63%.

David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions

In the two games that Dorial Thompson-Robinson has started, his favorite target has been David Njoku. In those two games, Njoku has averaged 11 targets per game. Kevin Stefanski’s offense is a tight end-focused offense often with primary reads to the position, and with a quarterback who just does not want to turn the ball over, expect them to once again look towards just continuing the short to intermediate routes to Njoku this week. The matchup is also perfect for Cleveland as Denver is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the season.

Rashid Shaheed Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

With Michael Thomas out again this week, Rashid Shaheed should be in another prime position to have a big day. Last week, we saw Shaheed have 9 targets, and while he only had 24 yards, that is very atypical for the speedy wide receiver who is averaging 16.9 yards per catch this season. While his role has changed to more of a possession type of player with Thomas out, Shaheed should just based on talent alone have more than his 4.8 yards-per-catch he saw last week against Minnesota. This week, taking on an Atlanta team that has been very good against wide receivers, but we did see them allow over 37.5 to Rondale Moore last week which should bode well for Shaheed who will play a similar role out of the slot.