Prop Talk Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 3.

All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added as numbers change throughout the weekend.

We are going back to keeping a record of the props. For record purposes, all props that are in as of Saturday Night will count towards the record.

Week 2 Record- 4-1:

Jahmyr Gibbs Under 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards- Win
Justin Fields Over 171.5 Passing Yards- Win
Joe Burrow Under 266.5 Passing Yards- Win
Mike Williams Over 59.5 Receiving Yards- Win
Josh Jacobs Over 92.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards- Loss

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Deshaun Watson Over 234.5 Passing Yards

Watson has been bad in his 8 games as a Browns player. There have been several excuses that have been made regarding the lack of production whether it is bad weather games, taking time to acclimate to the offense, or losing Nick Chubb last week derailing the game plan. However, this week, it is all on Watson. The Browns are facing a Titans defense that allowed over 300 yards passing in 9 games last season and has allowed over 300 yards in each of their first two games this season. The Browns are going to have big issues if Watson is unable to top 234.5 this week.

C.J. Stroud Over 234.5 Passing Yards

Through his first two games, C.J. Stroud is throwing the ball at a record-setting pace. The Texans have thrown the ball 45.5 times per game over their first two games, as they have shown a complete inability to run the ball this season with their below-average offensive line. The Texans are showing that they have weapons to throw to as Nico Collins has emerged as a more than capable wide receiver, while Tank Dell and Robert Woods have filled in as complementary players. If we are going to get 40+ throws, 234.5 is just too low. The way to beat the Jaguars is through the air, as so far this season they have boasted one of the league’s best run defenses.

Josh Reynolds Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

This number seems low for Reynolds who has 66 and 80 yards against Kansas City and Seattle through two games. This week, Footballguys has Reynolds projected at 48 yards. Reynolds will likely be matched up against Jeff Okudah this week who was traded away by the Lions after just two disappointing seasons from the number three overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. This will be Okudah’s first game of the season as he has been dealing with a foot injury this preseason.

Kendre Miller Under 38.5 Rushing Yards

Rookie Kendre Miller will make his season debut this week after suffering a hamstring injury in the preseason. There is a lot of excitement heading into this week for Miller as Jamaal Williams was placed on Injured Reserve this week and Alvin Kamara is suspended for one more game.

Several different factors are working against Miller this week. First, Tony Jones is still going to have a role this week, and the overall split between the two is unknown. Jones is not an exciting running back, but has been with the team from 2020-2022, so he knows the system, and coaching staff, and has the team’s trust. We also don’t know what shape Miller is in and how many touches he can have this week. With a hamstring injury, is he going to just be able to have a couple of touches, or is he going to be able to get a full complement of snaps? Finally, while the Packers were torched by Bijan Robinson in Week 2, they did look more than adequate in Week 1 shutting down the Bears' rushing attack.

Derrick Henry Under 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

From a yardage perspective, Derrick Henry has not had the start to the season that he would have hoped. Henry from a rushing perspective has not been great as he’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry so far this season. Henry has been a victim of a bad offensive line and is now dealing with a toe injury this week. If he sees any reduction in his role giving some of the workload to Tyjae Spears, that will make the 90.5 number difficult. The Browns have completely revamped their defensive line as they have added Dalvin Tomlinson, Za’Darius Smith, Ogbo Okoronkwo, and Shelby Harris. This has allowed the Browns to rotate their defensive line frequently. This should create problems for the offensive line that Matt Bitonti has ranked as his worst run-blocking unit in the NFL this season. If Henry can get to the second level he could have success against the undersized linebackers in Cleveland, but expect a lot of carries for no gain this week.