Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Lamar Jackson but had to settle for Brock Purdy, then you are going to favor 49ers over Ravens for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the mid and late parts of your draft.
A Note on Playoff Picks
Take a stand on the outcome of the playoff brackets with your picks. Some of these calls are 52/48, and the way they break can greatly affect projecting the next round in the bracket. But relying on small margins to make selections is the essence of what we do in fantasy football.
Wild Card Picks in Order of Confidence
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Cleveland over Houston
The C.J. Stroud story is great, and when Cleveland thumped the Texans in Week 16, they didn't have their starting quarterback, so we won't completely rule out the home team here. But the Browns are the more balanced team, and Joe Flacco has energized them. This is the kind of game the young Texans use to learn what it takes to win in the postseason.
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
The Steelers can turn this into a streetfight. The weather is forecast to be cold and extremely windy, nullifying some of the Buffalo quarterback advantage, and the Steelers have the better running game. Still, the Bills are just the better team, and picking Mason Rudolph to win a road playoff game feels like a stretch.
Dallas over Green Bay
The recent resurgence of Aaron Jones and the possible return of Christian Watson make the Packers offense more capable of hanging with Dak Prescott and the league's hottest offense in the second half of the season. But this Cowboys team summarily dismissed the Tom Brady Buccaneers on the road last year in the Wild Card round, and they are one of the best home teams in the league.
LOW CONFIDENCE
LA Rams over Detroit
The Lions have been great at home this year, and they have more than demonstrated that they can perform at a playoff level of play there. They have impact players on both sides of the ball and probably have a better roster than the Rams. The playoff coaching experience and Stafford vs. Goff gaps still make it hard to pick the Lions.
Kansas City over Miami
The weather in Kansas City is forecast to be colder than Buffalo and not as windy, but still enough to affect the downfield passing game. The Chiefs offense is limited, so this is probably going to be a one possession game. The Mike McDaniel Dolphins hung around after falling behind 17-0 in the playoffs last year at Buffalo, losing 34-31 and leading 24-20 in the second half at one point with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. It feels very close to 50-50, but the Dolphins have lost their top two pass rushers, while Xavien Howard is iffy at best. This the toughest AFC game to predict.
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
The Eagles offense is banged up at multiple positions, and the team couldn't be colder entering the playoffs. The Buccaneers have an injured quarterback and a lesser roster. This game is the closest to a coin flip on the Wild Card slate.
Divisional Round Picks in Order of Confidence
HIGH CONFIDENCE
San Francisco over LA Rams
Kyle Shanahan has had the edge over Sean McVay for a while, and the 49ers clearly have the better roster. Christian McCaffrey's calf is an X factor, and the game between these two in Week 2 was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter, so it's not a slam dunk. We would have even more confidence in San Francisco if they play anyone but the Rams in this round.
Dallas over Tampa Bay
If the Cowboys draw the Lions, this will be a low-confidence Cowboys pick. So the outcome of the other Wild Card games is going to have a big effect on the relative ease or difficulty in the path to a rematch with the 49ers or, even better, hosting the NFC Championship game. But if it's Philadelphia or Tampa Bay, neither team seems like they can go into Arlington and win right now.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Baltimore over Cleveland
The Browns and Ravens split the series this year (in fact, Cleveland is the last team Lamar Jackson lost to), and they didn't play after Joe Flacco took over, so maybe this should be low confidence. The Browns have at least a puncher's chance, and the Ravens don't have a history of overachieving in the postseason during the Lamar Jackson era. It's still impossible to ignore how good the Ravens looked on both sides of the ball against the 49ers and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17. The fun Flacco story comes to an end here.
LOW CONFIDENCE
Buffalo over Kansas City
Nothing about how the Chiefs have played lately makes you want to pick them, but the Bills were big-time underachievers in the playoffs last year, and they haven't exactly peaked in the last three weeks of the season, despite having must-win games in Weeks 16 and 17. Home-field advantage and the Chiefs' flaws being more to overcome than the Bills give Buffalo the edge.
Conference Championship Picks in Order of Confidence
HIGH CONFIDENCE
San Francisco over Dallas
Dallas is mortal away from home, and the 49ers embarrassed them earlier this season. There's no reason to expect a vastly different result this time around.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Baltimore over Buffalo
Three years ago, the Bills beat the Ravens 17-3 in a divisional game in Buffalo. Justin Tucker missed two field goals, and Lamar Jackson threw a pick-six that was returned 101 yards on third and goal. Those Ravens weren't as good on offense or defense as these Ravens. The Bills looked like a team that could go into Dallas and win against the Cowboys, but they barely beat the Easton Stick Chargers the next week. Both of these teams have been perennial underachievers in the playoffs. We have to give Baltimore a decisive edge on the quality of play over the whole season compared to the inconsistency of the Bills.
Tiered Team Ranking By Range of Outcomes/Fantasy Offensive Potential
First Tier - Cornerstones
- San Francisco - The only potential hitch is Christian McCaffrey, but their running game might not lose much even if he goes down with Samuel and Mitchell healthy.
- Baltimore - It is going to be fun to watch Lamar Jackson in the playoffs with a good set of receivers and a flexible-minded offensive coordinator.
Second Tier - Potential League Winners with Risk
- Dallas - This offense has been the stuff that fantasy dreams are made of, but it's not hard to picture the winner of the Detroit/Rams game going into Arlington and winning - if that's who they draw in the divisional round.
- Buffalo - The Bills passing game has been meh lately, and there's a chance of weather affecting production in at least the first two rounds. Still, no one should be surprised if they make it to the big game.
Third Tier - Multiple Games Possible, but a Super Bowl run?
- Cleveland - You have to admit it's fun to picture Flacco making a Super Bowl run, and they have the impact players on both sides of the ball to make it happen, but it's still very unlikely.
- Detroit - The offense is outstanding for fantasy, but Goff and the defense are probably too flawed to beat Dallas and San Francisco.
- LA Rams - Like the Lions, the Rams have a great fantasy offense but probably lack the defense to beat both Dallas and San Francisco.
- Kansas City - The Chiefs are wily and experienced in the postseason, but this team backed into a division title and rarely, if ever, this season resembled the Chiefs teams that hosted five straight AFC title games.
- Houston - The Texans did beat the Joe Burrow Bengals. If they can beat the Joe Flacco Browns, you never know, but usually, a team with a rookie head coach and quarterback gets humbled in the postseason.
- Philadelphia - This has been a good offense, but with the top two receivers limited or out and smoke coming out of the defense's hood, it's hard to see them winning more than one game.
- Tampa Bay - They can outlast a wounded Eagles team, but probably not San Francisco or a team that just won a Wild Card game.
- Miami - Miami can beat the Chiefs, and if they are closer to full strength going into Buffalo, they could win there, but it's hard to imagine them competing with Baltimore after what we saw in Week 17.
Fourth Tier - Likely One and Done
- Green Bay - It's not impossible, but unlikely they can win on the road against one of the league's best home teams.
- Pittsburgh - The wind could be a great equalizer in Buffalo, but we have to have a "believe it when I see it" attitude toward Mason Rudolph in the playoffs.
Strategy Cliff Notes
- With 14 playoff teams and six Wild Card games, it is less important than ever to get Wild Card weekend scoring with your early picks
- The #1 seeds are head and shoulders above the pack. You better love a player's scoring potential or their team's potential to play 3+ games (hopefully both) if you take them over a key Raven/49er in the first two rounds
- Expect to take your QB1 in the first round unless you take Christian McCaffrey or your WR1
- Running back and tight end scoring will be hard to come by, so you can win your league with weakness at these positions
- With four of the six Wild Card weekend games close calls, you can afford to wait on players from every Wild Card weekend team except Dallas and Buffalo and just get the discounted players from teams like Houston, Miami, the Rams, and Tampa, who probably still have at least a 40% chance of playing multiple games
Quarterback Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson, BAL
2. Brock Purdy, SF
3. Josh Allen, BUF
4. Dak Prescott, DAL
5. Joe Flacco, CLE
6. Matthew Stafford, LAR
7. Jared Goff, DET
8. Jalen Hurts, PHI **Monitor Status**
9. C.J. Stroud, HOU
10. Baker Mayfield, TB
11. Patrick Mahomes II, KC
12. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
13. Jordan Love, GB
14. Mason Rudolph, PIT
15. Sam Darnold, SF
16. Tyler Huntley, BAL
17. Marcus Mariota, PHI
18. Kenny Pickett, PIT
19. Mike White, MIA
20. Kyle Trask, TB
Notes: The dropoff from Jackson/Purdy to Allen/Prescott is steep and steep once again to the tier that begins at QB5… MIA/KC has the look of a low-scoring game. Taking the quarterback that loses is going to be a wasted pick… If you don't get a top-four quarterback, taking the quarterback from the team that you think wins in LAR/DET and the quarterback from the team that you think wins in CLE/HOU is a good fallback strategy… If you start with Purdy/Jackson, you can wait on Jordan Love as your QB2. He will be among the highest-scoring quarterbacks on Wild Card weekend, but he will be cheap because his team is unlikely to advance… Darnold and Huntley should be taken in every typical draft. As the backup quarterbacks most likely to play in the Super Bowl, they have speculative value in the final push for points.
Running Back Rankings
1. Christian McCaffrey, SF **Monitor Status**
2. James Cook, BUF
3. Gus Edwards, BAL
4. Justice Hill, BAL
5. Tony Pollard, DAL
6. Kyren Williams, LAR
7. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
8. De'Von Achane, MIA **Monitor Mostert Status**
9. Elijah Mitchell, SF **Monitor McCaffrey Status**
10. Isiah Pacheco, KC **Monitor Status**
11. David Montgomery, DET
12. Aaron Jones, GB
13. Devin Singletary, HOU
14. Jerome Ford, CLE
15. Rachaad White, TB
16. D'Andre Swift, PHI
17. Raheem Mostert, MIA **Monitor Status**
18. Kareem Hunt, CLE
19. Najee Harris, PIT
20. Jaylen Warren, PIT
21. Jordan Mason, SF **Monitor McCaffrey Status**
22. Rico Dowdle, DAL
23. Leonard Fournette, BUF
24. Dalvin Cook, BAL
25. Kyle Juszczyk, SF
26. Melvin Gordon III, BAL
27. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
28. Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA
29. Dameon Pierce, HOU
30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
31. Ronnie Rivers, LAR
32. Chase Edmonds, TB
33. La'Mical Perine, KC
34. Ty Johnson, BUF
35. Patrick Ricard, BAL
36. Reggie Gilliam, BUF
37. Rashaad Penny, PHI
38. Boston Scott, PHI
39. AJ Dillon, GB
40. Craig Reynolds, DET
41. Latavius Murray, BUF
42. Royce Freeman, LAR
43. Pierre Strong Jr, CLE
44. Chris Brooks, MIA
45. Zach Evans, LAR
46. Dare Ogunbowale, HOU
47. Patrick Taylor, GB
48. Emanuel Wilson, GB
49. Godwin Igwebuike, PIT
50. Sean Tucker, TB
Notes: McCaffrey is a make-or-break pick in the first round. If he stays healthy and plays three games, he might end up being the most valuable player in your playoff league, but one tweak of that calf and your chances of winning go up in smoke unless you also take Elijah Mitchell. Beating the McCaffrey team to the punch on Mitchell will feel good. Mitchell could easily outscore McCaffrey over the course of the playoffs. Don't forget about Jordan Mason, who has a non-zero chance of being the highest-scoring running back in the playoffs… There's no clear #2 running back, so don't put too much priority on the position in the early rounds, save for taking a Ravens back to get a piece of their offense if they don't go off the board too quickly... Your running back strategy can focus on picking the team over the player (focus on your picks in MIA/KC, CLE/HOU, LAR/DET, and PHI/TB) or the player over the team (take cheaper lead backs on underdogs - Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Rachaad White and Devin Singletary)... Since no one outside of the McCaffrey team and maybe one other team with a running back who gets hot and plays at least three games will get a lot of points out of the position, this is the position slough, especially if you have PPR scoring… Jones was playing as well as any back in the league in the last three games and could outscore many backs who play multiple games… Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are great end-game picks as veteran backs who could see larger roles. Monitor the news out of Buffalo and Baltimore to see which of their veteran backs at the end of their bench that they are going to dress in the playoffs… Kyle Juszczyk should also be part of your end game as a Wild Card in the 49ers offense.
Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Deebo Samuel, SF
2. CeeDee Lamb, DAL
3. Brandon Aiyuk, SF
4. Stefon Diggs, BUF
5. Tyreek Hill, MIA
6. Amari Cooper, CLE
7. Zay Flowers, BAL **Monitor Status**
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
9. Puka Nacua, LAR
10. Rashee Rice, KC
11. Nico Collins, HOU
12. Mike Evans, TB
13. Cooper Kupp, LAR
14. Odell Beckham Jr, BAL
15. Rashod Bateman, BAL
16. Brandin Cooks, DAL
17. Khalil Shakir, BUF **Monitor Davis Status**
18. Jayden Reed, GB
19. Demarcus Robinson, LAR
20. Chris Godwin, TB
21. Nelson Agholor, BAL
22. Gabe Davis, BUF **Monitor Status**
23. Dontayvion Wicks, GB **Monitor Watson/Doubs Status**
24. A.J. Brown, PHI **Monitor Status**
25. DeVonta Smith, PHI **Monitor Status**
26. Christian Watson, GB **Monitor Status**
27. Diontae Johnson, PIT
28. George Pickens, PIT
29. Jaylen Waddle, MIA **Monitor Status**
30. Elijah Moore, CLE
31. Josh Reynolds, DET
32. Jameson Williams, DET **Monitor Status**
33. Julio Jones, PHI **Monitor Smith/Brown Status**
34. Justin Watson, KC
35. Quez Watkins, PHI **Monitor Smith/Brown Status**
36. Cedric Tillman, CLE
37. Michael Gallup, DAL
38. Tutu Atwell, LAR
39. Noah Brown, HOU **Monitor Status**
40. Ronnie Bell, SF
41. Ray-Ray McCloud III, SF
42. Jauan Jennings, SF **Monitor Status**
43. Trent Sherfield, BUF **Monitor Davis Status**
44. Donovan Peoples-Jones, DET
45. Jalen Tolbert, DAL
46. KaVontae Turpin, DAL
47. Bo Melton, GB **Monitor Watson/Doubs Status**
48. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC
49. Cedrick Wilson Jr., MIA **Monitor Waddle Status**
50. Richie James, KC
51. Justyn Ross, KC
52. Kadarius Toney, KC
53. Mecole Hardman Jr., KC
54. Romeo Doubs, GB **Monitor Status**
55. Malik Heath, GB
56. Deonte Harty, BUF
57. Chris Conley, SF
58. David Bell, CLE
59. Robert Woods, HOU **Monitor Status/Brown Status**
60. Trey Palmer, TB
61. Kalif Raymond, DET **Monitor Status**
62. Tylan Wallace, BAL
63. John Metchie III, HOU **Monitor Brown/Woods Status**
64. Xavier Hutchinson, HOU **Monitor Brown/Woods Status**
65. Calvin Austin III, PIT
66. Chase Claypool, MIA
67. David Moore, TB
68. Robbie Chosen, MIA
69. Marquise Goodwin, CLE
70. River Cracraft, MIA
71. Braxton Berrios, MIA
72. Laquon Treadwell, BAL
73. Allen Robinson II, PIT
74. Olamide Zaccheaus, PHI
75. Antoine Green, DET
Notes: There should be a lot of diversity in the order of Top 13 in the minds of drafters, so you should be able to get what you see as a value at your WR1 and WR2 spots… Samuel, Aiyuk, and Flowers have the best intersection of floor/ceiling/Super Bowl, but Lamb could outscore the field in two games… Lots of WR1s playing on Wild Card weekend could be one and done. With so many Wild Card games being tough calls, be patient and try to get the players at the bottom of the Top 13 tier, no matter how the board falls… The next tier has low weekly floor players who could play three or more games and high-ceiling weekly players who could go one-and-done. Your confidence in your WR1 and WR2 to make it to the divisional/conference championship… There are a ton of injury situations to watch at wide receiver this weekend. With so many even matchups, it's best to avoid players who also have uncertain playing statuses… Demarcus Robinson looks like a big value as a player who could produce close to the level of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in a favorable matchup against the Lions.
Tight End Rankings
1. George Kittle, SF
2. Isaiah Likely, BAL
3. Travis Kelce, KC
4. David Njoku, CLE
5. Dalton Kincaid, BUF
6. Jake Ferguson, DAL
7. Dallas Goedert, PHI
8. Dalton Schultz, HOU
9. Dawson Knox, BUF
10. Cade Otton, TB
11. Sam LaPorta, DET **Monitor Status**
12. Brock Wright, DET **Monitor LaPorta Status**
13. Luke Musgrave, GB
14. Tucker Kraft, GB
15. Noah Gray, KC
16. Durham Smythe, MIA
17. Pat Freiermuth, PIT
18. Brevin Jordan, HOU
19. Brycen Hopkins, LAR
20. Davis Allen, LAR
21. James Mitchell, DET
22. Charlie Woerner, SF
23. Charlie Kolar, BAL
24. Brayden Willis, SF
25. Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
26. Peyton Hendershot, DAL
27. Harrison Bryant, CLE
28. Jordan Akins, CLE
29. Blake Bell, KC
30. Payne Durham, TB
Notes: Kittle and Likely lead the pack here with Kelce's production falling off in the second half of the year… Njoku, Kincaid, and Ferguson could all outproduce Kelce with similar weekly ceilings and just as much chance to play multiple games, if not more… Schultz and Goedert could be solid scorers even in one-and-done scenarios playing with injured wide receiver groups… Expectations for scoring fall off of a cliff after the Top 8, so make sure you don't get shut out… Sam LaPorta is more likely to give a zero than he is to contribute to your cause, so don't take him before the Top 8 is exhausted.
Kicker Rankings
1. Justin Tucker, BAL
2. Jake Moody, SF
3. Brandon Aubrey, DAL
4. Tyler Bass, BUF
5. Harrison Butker, KC
6. Brett Maher, LAR
7. Chase McLaughlin, TB
8. Jake Elliott, PHI
9. Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU
10. Michael Badgley, DET
11. Jason Sanders, MIA
12. Anders Carlson, GB
13. Chris Boswell, PIT
14. Riley Patterson, CLE **Monitor Hopkins Status**
15. Dustin Hopkins, CLE Monitor Status
Notes: Tucker could be as valuable as any Raven other than Lamar Jackson. Be willing to take him earlier than it seems any kicker should go in a fantasy draft… Cleveland would be much better off if Hopkins can kick in the Wild Card round. But he could have some re-injury risk, so it's probably better to avoid the situation altogether… Maher and Badgley are relatively new to their teams and might not be trusted as much as established kickers… If you don't get a top-four kicker, try to pair up kickers that meet in the Wild Card round.
D/ST Rankings
1. San Francisco
2. Baltimore
3. Dallas
4. Buffalo
5. Cleveland
6. Kansas City
7. Tampa Bay
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Houston
10. Detroit
11. Miami
12. Philadelphia
13. Pittsburgh
14. Green Bay
Notes: The San Francisco and Baltimore defenses are also very valuable, depending on your scoring. Be willing to take them over complementary pieces in the team's offenses… Cleveland, Tampa Bay, the Rams, and Houston all have high ceilings on Wild Card weekend.