The lead-up to the NFL Draft is an important time to understand the potential landing spots and the potential fallout for incoming rookies. Grindingthemocks.com compiles mock draft data throughout the pre-draft process that can be valuable in the process. Mock draft data, as well as publicly available betting lines, provide insight into when players may hear their names called and which teams may be interested in calling their names. The articles would focus on potential landing spots and the potential impact of the landing spots on wide receivers.
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What is the market for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
The favorite to be the first wide receiver drafted Is Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His implied odds are 70% to be the first wide receiver selected. Boston College’s Zay Flowers is second highest odds (20%), followed by Jordan Addison (10%) and Quentin Johnston (5%).
Below is the most recent data from Grinding the Mocks.
At present, Smith-Njigba (14.2) has the highest expected draft position, followed by Johnston (19.7), Addison (22.4), and Flowers (23.2). Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (37) is the fifth wide receiver in draft cost but has fallen out of the first round of expected draft position in the past couple of months.
Houston has the 12th pick and a major need at wide receiver. They are the favorite to select Smith-Njigba with around 20% implied probability. The Patriots and Packers are the next closest odds at around 17% implied probability. The landing spot in Houston and New England would not do any major harm to the dynasty wide receiver prospects, but Smith-Njigba going to Green Bay could spell trouble for second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs. Green Bay selected Christian Watson and Doubs in the second and fourth rounds of the 2023 draft. Doubs was the major buzz candidate during training camp but failed to meet expectations.
Doubs is currently in the WR50 range of dynasty valuations and is an upgrade piece in existing leagues.
To get a sense of the market, here is a recent trade from MyFantasyLeague.com league so you can see what a GM got in return for Doubs. Every league is different, of course, but this trade in an existing league can give you a pretty good feel for his value.
- In a Superflex league
- Trade Away: Romeo Doubs and 3.05
- Trade For: 2.07
What impact could Quentin Johnston have?
Quentin Johnston is the favorite to be selected by the Vikings, with implied probability around 20%, before a drop off to Baltimore around 15%, then the Giants, Bills, and Houston all around 10%. The Houston spot would be the clearest road for a WR1 role for Johnston, particularly with his run-after-the-catch ability, but he would face uncertainty at quarterback.
Landing with the Vikings would largely fill the role of Adam Thielen, who was cut in the offseason. The Vikings have around 45% implied odds of selecting a wide receiver with their first pick. Johnston landing with the Bills would threaten Gabriel Davis and the development of Khalil Shakir.
A recent trade involving Davis is a good structure for a deal to trade him before the draft.
- In a Superflex league
- Trade Away: Davis and Chris Godwin
- Trade For: Tee Higgins
Baltimore is at 40% to take a wide receiver, which is the second favorite behind taking a cornerback with their first pick. Johnston would represent a major threat to Rashod Bateman, who has struggled through two seasons and only played six games in 2022. The team added Nelson Agholor and Odell Beckham Jr in free agency, so going back to the well with Johnston would be a major threat to Bateman. With the addition of Beckham, this could be a concerning sign for Bateman. A future second-round pick would be a good opportunity to cash out on Bateman before he faces more competition.
Additional landing spots
Kansas City has implied odds around 33% to draft a wide receiver with their first pick in the draft, slightly behind the offensive and defensive line. The team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to the New England Patriots in free agency and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round in the 2022 draft, but Moore failed to break out as a rookie. If you can get close to what you paid for Moore during last season’s rookie drafts, now is a good time to do so.
The Chargers are also a heavy favorite to select a wide receiver at around 45%. Keenan Allen only has two years remaining on his contract and has a 34.7 million dollar cap hit in 2024. The team can save 23.1 million dollars by cutting him when he will be 32 years old. Mike Williams is also signed through 2024 but has a 32.5 million dollar cap hit in his age-30 season, and the team can save 20 million dollars moving on from him next year. The team will likely extend Justin Herbert in 2023, and the team will need to create more cap space, so drafting a young wide receiver will allow the team to get cap flexibility. Josh Palmer contributed in 2023, but a first-round pick would likely cap Palmer's ceiling, even if he is in the team’s future.
The remaining team with high odds of taking a wide receiver in the first round is the Giants, with nearly 45% implied odds. Outside of Isaiah Hodgins (6-foot-4), the Giants have a long jam of small wide receivers, with Wan’Dale Robinson (5-foot-8), Parris Campbell (5-foot-11), and Sterling Shepard (5-foot-10). In a class with a lot of smaller wide receivers, the Giants’ preferences at the position will be an interesting monitor.