Two-Game Slate
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 45
- Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 43.5
Injury Roundup
- Joe Burrow Game Time Decision - Upgrade Rams D/ST
- Boston Scott OUT - Upgrade D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell
- Quez Watkins OUT - Upgrade Olamide Zaccheaus
- Irv Smith Doubtful - Upgrade Tyler Boyd and Drew Sample
- Puka Nacua Questionable but expected to play
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts was the overall QB1 in fantasy points per game last season and, despite starting a bit slow to begin this season, is still the QB7 in the same metric. Despite a relatively tough matchup against a solid Buccaneers defense, Hurts and the Eagles offense project to get back on track in this one. Why? Expect Baker Mayfield to regress and struggle mightily against an Eagles defense that ranks third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play Allowed and sixth in Dropback EPA Allowed. That will allow Hurts and company to control the time of possession and gain extra offensive possessions. The result will be additional points.
Matthew Stafford is healthy and playing phenomenally to begin the 2023 season. He ranks fourth in passing yards (641) and is due for positive pass-touchdown regression as he has only thrown one so far. That could begin right away as the matchup is relatively favorable against a Bengals defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed through two weeks.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams is a no-brainer play. No Need to overthink it. Without Cam Akers last week, Williams played on 95% of the offensive snaps, saw 24 opportunities, received 10 targets, and was the only running back on the team to carry the ball. Williams has a Christian McCaffrey-esque workload right now.
Joe Burrow is a game-time decision, and there is serious concern he won't be able to play. Regardless, look for the Bengals' offensive game plan to rely more heavily on Joe Mixon than usual in this one. He has a favorable matchup to take advantage of against a bad Rams defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua is a no-brainer play. Just like Kyren Williams, there is simply no reason to overthink it. Nacua is operating as Matthew Stafford's Cooper Kupp right now, and he leads the NFL in targets (35) and receptions (25). He also ranks second in receiving yards (266).
Cameras caught an argument between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown on the sideline last week in primetime on Thursday Night Football. Brown is the squeaky wheel play here, who should be the focal point of the passing game to help make up for his slow start to the 2023 season. And let's be clear. Brown is elite by almost every metric. Last year, he ranked third in yards per route run, third in ESPN/NextGen Stats Open Score, third in percentage of his team's air yards share, fourth in yards after catch above expectation, ninth in average depth of target, eighth in yards after catch per game, and sixth in yards after catch per reception.
Puka Nacua has grabbed all the headlines, and rightfully so, but Tutu Atwell should not be overlooked. In fact, Atwell has run seven more routes than Nucua so far and has posted a respectable 13 receptions for 196 yards.
Ja'Marr Chase has started slow, as he only has 10 catches for 70 yards through the first two weeks of the season. And now his superstar quarterback, Joe Burrow, is a game-time decision due to his calf injury. This situation isn't ideal, but regardless of who his quarterback is on Monday night, Chase is too talented to have a third poor game in a row. He'll take advantage of his favorable matchup against a Rams defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
This was already an uninspiring tight-end slate, and now Irv Smith is listed as doubtful. Dallas Goedert is the clear top choice. Goedert ranked fifth in fantasy points per game (9.6) at the tight end position last season and only scored three touchdowns. The talent is there, and a big season and a big game could occur, especially if he sees some positive touchdown regression.
Adding Cade Otton to your DFS team by clicking on his name doesn't excite you, but maybe it should, especially on this poor tight-end slate. Otton has played on 97% of the offensive snaps in both weeks to begin the season and has caught 8 of his 9 targets for 60 yards.
Team Defense
Eagles D/ST
Expect Baker Mayfield to regress and struggle mightily against an Eagles defense that ranks third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play Allowed and sixth in Dropback EPA Allowed. This will be a big test for Mayfield, and I'm happy to pick against him.