Is This Real? Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Deebo Samuel's Recent Heater is Likely a Blip

2023 has been a tail of two halves for Deebo Samuel. In weeks 1 through 6, Samuel scored 12.0 points per game and ranked as WR38 in per-game scoring. Samuel missed weeks 7 and 8 before a week 9 bye. Since his return in week 10, Deebo Samuel is WR3 in points per game (23.5).

The spits on the season have remained largely consistent.

Part of the production has been a difference in opponents. Samuel has played Seattle twice and dominated their defense in both games. In two games against Seattle, Samuel has averaged 28.2 points per game, 7 receptions, 0.5 receiving touchdowns, 9 targets, and 114 receiving yards.

In the nine games against other teams, Samuel has averaged 4.8 targets, 3.4 receptions, 56.8 receiving yards, 0.33 receiving, 0.33 touchdowns, and 14.7 points per game.

This is strikingly similar to his career splits. Before 2023, in his four career games against Seattle, he has taken his game to another level, averaging 8.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, 103.5 receiving yards, 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game, and 23.5 points per game.

In all other games, Samuel has averaged 14.7 points per game, 6.5 targets, 4.2 receptions, 59.8 receiving yards, and 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game. His 14.7 points per game against non-Seattle teams is the same this year as the remainder of his career.

For the difference in scoring, Samuel's own production has not been better. For example, on his 20 receptions in weeks 1 through 6, Samuel forced 10 missed tackles. In those weeks, he had 156 yards after the catch.

In the 25 receptions since week 10, he has broken 9 tackles, a lower rate, but managed 297 receiving yards after the catch.

The performance spike does not indicate a difference in performance but a difference in outcome driven by defenses. Specifically, Samuel shredded Philadelphia in week 13 to the tune of 28.8 yards after the catch per reception. Little has changed about his rate stats, but the performance is better because he has faced defenses that have been out of position.

Verdict: Deebo Samuel has a sturdy role in an offense that highly concentrates the targets in Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, so his floor is high, but his recent production is a flukey blip on the radar. Samuel's production is more in line with a WR2 range of outcomes than his top 5 outcomes in recent weeks.