Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players that have sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players that have unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Brandon Aiyuk's massive breakout
Brandon Aiyuk had a massive breakout game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Aiyuk caught all 8 of his targets for 129 receiving yards and two touchdowns en route to a WR2 finish on the week. Aiyuk has a career-high 114 targets in 2022 and has a solid production profile in a lower passing volume offense. Aiyuk's performance in Week 1 sticks out because of the amount of man coverage that Pittsburgh plays. Aiyuk is one of the better wide receivers against man coverage, and the Steelers played man coverage on 31% of their snaps, the 8th-highest in the league in Week 1. This matchup set up well for Aiyuk, and he capitalized on it. Other teams play significantly less main coverage and are better matchups for more zone-productive wide receivers in the 49ers offense, like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. San Francisco is the type of offense that will fluctuate gameplans each week and maximize matchups, so Aiyuk's target share could fluctuate. San Francisco's offense is unlikely to create 130+, so be careful about buying high on Aiyuk's production.
Verdict: Real production, but not a new normal.
Tee Higgins' 0 receptions
Tee Higgins was held without a catch in Week 1 against Cleveland. The game was played in a rainstorm, with Joe Burrow looking rusty after missing time during preseason with a calf injury. Higgins was targeted 8 times in the game, and this is only the 12th time in NFL history a receiver has had 8 or more targets without a reception in the game. Higgins has back-to-back 1000-receiving-yard seasons and is in an elite offense. Higgins is playing in a contract year, still managed a 20.6% target share, and is in a good position to rebound from this down performance.
Verdict: Week 1 is an outlier and not a concern.
Zay Flowers' 9 receptions
Zay Flowers had a big Week 1 performance, with 9 receptions and 78 receiving yards on a 33% target share. Flowers had an elite 2.79 yards per route run and did so with an average depth of target (aDOT) of only 2.8. Of wide receivers with 3 or more targets, only Noah Brown (-3.5), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.0), and KaVonte Turpin (1.3) had a lower aDOT than Flowers. Notably, 50% of Flowers' targets were screens. While the target share is high level, this is a difficult profile to sustain. Flowers' usage appears to move like a gadget player, particularly in a game Mark Andrews missed with injury.
Verdict: Cautious optimism, but do not buy high.
Arizona Cardinals Tight Ends
Zach Ertz suffered a torn ACL in week 10 of 2022, and there was concern he would not be ready for Week 1 of the season. Ertz was able to start Week 1 and led the team in receptions (5) and targets (7). The biggest takeaway from Arizona's tight end position is Trey McBride's limited involvement. Ertz led the position, playing 48 snaps on 62 offensive plays, well ahead of McBride's 23 snaps. More importantly from a fantasy football perspective, Ertz ran 32 routes compared to only 10 routes for McBride.
Verdict: McBride is a sell candidate in dynasty formats, while Ertz is a streaming candidate this season.