Is This Real? Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players that have sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players that have unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Brandon Aiyuk's massive breakout

Brandon Aiyuk had a massive breakout game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Aiyuk caught all 8 of his targets for 129 receiving yards and two touchdowns en route to a WR2 finish on the week. Aiyuk has a career-high 114 targets in 2022 and has a solid production profile in a lower passing volume offense. Aiyuk's performance in Week 1 sticks out because of the amount of man coverage that Pittsburgh plays. Aiyuk is one of the better wide receivers against man coverage, and the Steelers played man coverage on 31% of their snaps, the 8th-highest in the league in Week 1. This matchup set up well for Aiyuk, and he capitalized on it. Other teams play significantly less main coverage and are better matchups for more zone-productive wide receivers in the 49ers offense, like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. San Francisco is the type of offense that will fluctuate gameplans each week and maximize matchups, so Aiyuk's target share could fluctuate. San Francisco's offense is unlikely to create 130+, so be careful about buying high on Aiyuk's production.

Verdict: Real production, but not a new normal.

Tee Higgins' 0 receptions

Tee Higgins was held without a catch in Week 1 against Cleveland. The game was played in a rainstorm, with Joe Burrow looking rusty after missing time during preseason with a calf injury. Higgins was targeted 8 times in the game, and this is only the 12th time in NFL history a receiver has had 8 or more targets without a reception in the game. Higgins has back-to-back 1000-receiving-yard seasons and is in an elite offense. Higgins is playing in a contract year, still managed a 20.6% target share, and is in a good position to rebound from this down performance.

Verdict: Week 1 is an outlier and not a concern.