The Guru and the Godfather: Week 8

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John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

It’s halftime of the 2023 fantasy football regular season, and while there’s no musical show to celebrate it, IDP managers are halfway home. Some are cruising toward the postseason. Some are circling the drain. Most fall somewhere in between.

As is the case every Friday, the Guru and the Godfather have come together yet again. This time, it’s what went right (and wrong) over the last seven weeks, a potential trade target or two, and, as always, a look ahead to the upcoming week’s action.

We’ve hit the halfway mark of the regular season in most IDP leagues. There’s still a lot of football to be played, but which preseason call are you most proud of? Which call would you most like a mulligan on?

GURU: Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrell Bernard is a player I’ve been high on since he was drafted in 2022. Even then, I called him a strong dynasty target, pointing out that Tremaine Edmunds was at the end of his contract. It didn’t look good for Bernard during the summer and even in the weeks leading up to the regular season as he was recovering from an injury. Once he got healthy, however, Bernard exceeded even my expectations and is currently residing among the top five linebackers. I’ll happily take a humble brag on that one.

While I contend that I am still far more accurate than those predicting the weather, we all have our share of misses. When Cole Holcomb went to the Steelers, I thought he would be the every-down answer to their problems at inside linebacker and an impact fantasy target. He has not been a complete bust, but instead of an every-week must-start, Holcomb has turned out to be a marginal third starter or solid backup that we overpaid for.

GODFATHER: Had he not gotten hurt, I’d be talking about how right I was about New England Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon here. For the record, no—I’m not over it yet.

Over the summer, I mentioned that Robert Spillane of the Las Vegas Raiders had a chance to be a sneaky-good value pick later in drafts—and that it was possible he’d out-point Divine Deablo in Sin City. I’m not going to sit here and say I thought he’d be a top-15 fantasy option seven weeks into the season, but sure enough, Spillane has emerged as a steady producer and the Raiders' most valuable fantasy linebacker.

There’s still a chance that Quinnen Williams of the New York Jets can turn things around and salvage at least some value for fantasy managers this season. But Williams was my top-ranked defensive tackle entering the season, and I’m baffled by the fact he has fewer fantasy points than the likes of David Onyemata of the Atlanta Falcons and Kevin Strong Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals.

Um…oops.

The trade deadline is still a few weeks off in most leagues, but there is no shortage of IDP teams looking to upgrade at one position or another. Identify an IDP who is a solid buy-low candidate right now and another you’d be looking to unload while their value is at its apex.

GURU: My buy-low target would be San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa. He got off to a horrible start with just four combined tackles in the first two games, didn’t put up more than two solo stops in a game until week six, and is way off the expected pace with two and a half sacks in seven games. Every manager that has him will be frustrated at the low production. On the other hand, Bosa has 10 tackles, two assists, and a sack and a half over the last three games. He’s Nick Bosa, after all, and is finally showing signs of the player we expected.

If you are sitting on Miami Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb, see if you can trade him for Bosa. Chubb is off to what is, by far, his most productive season since he was a rookie in 2018. His best tackle output in the last four years was 25 solos and 17 assists in 2020. He is already sitting at 23-11 with 4 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. The numbers are rather attractive, but I have little confidence in his ability to sustain them for the rest of the season. Not so much because he’s incapable but because he’s so fragile. It feels like this guy has been on the injury report since 2019.

GODFATHER: What the heck—we’ll stick with edge rushers here.

I would have mentioned Bosa if Norton hadn’t, but I’ll pivot to a similar player. Carolina Panthers edge rusher is off to a similarly inauspicious start as Bosa—he’s 39th among defensive linemen in total points and 29th in fantasy points per game. Burns has four sacks through six games, but his tackle numbers are down, and he’s been wildly inconsistent. But like Bosa, Burns is just too talented—the dam will burst at some point. It’s even better if the team rostering him is struggling—2-5 teams sometimes have little recourse but to consider dealing long-term upside for short-term fixes. They just can’t wait.

Conversely, while Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto of the Denver Broncos are both off to great starts and rank among the top-20 edge rushers in the league in fantasy points, I have my doubts about whether a seventh-round pick (albeit from the best college in America) and a second-year pro who didn’t open the season as a starter can keep it up. They call it selling high for a reason. Those are exactly the kind of found money options managers should look to flip—especially if they have depth at the position.

It’s time to help IDP managers be great in Week 8 (who doesn’t love rhymes?). Which players at each position are in a position to blast past expectations in Week 8, blow up the box score, and lead fantasy managers to a win?

GURU: What do the Raiders and Chicago Bears have in common? Edge rusher Khalil Mack played for both. After this week’s games, I expect they will also share Mack having multiple sacks against them both. He has cooled off significantly since his historic six-sack outing in week four and was nearly shut out statistically by the Chiefs last week. One thing the Chiefs and Bears do not have in common is the ability to protect their quarterback. Chicago is allowing four sacks per game and, entering week eight, has allowed the second most fantasy points to defensive ends.

In 2022, Washington linebacker Jamin Davis worked in a two-down role early in the season and was marginally productive. When Cole Holcomb was injured, Davis moved into the three-down role and put up good numbers the rest of the way. Through the first six weeks of this season, Cody Barton was the Commanders lead linebacker, playing every down while Davis returned to the part-time role. Barton left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a high ankle sprain. Davis played every snap after Barton left. Davis is in line to have the full-time role for at least a few games and this week he gets a matchup with the Eagles to boot. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game to linebackers.

For my defensive back target, I’ll go with Green Bay Packers safety Rudy Ford versus the Vikings. As we head to week eight, Minnesota is the best matchup in the game for safeties, allowing an average of over 27 points to the position. A big contributor to that fact is the love Kirk Cousins has for his star tight end, T.J. Hockenson, who has been targeted at least eight times in six of seven games, with a season-high of 12 last week. With Justin Jefferson out, Hockenson should continue to be Cousins’ favorite target which should spell a busy day for Ford.

GODFATHER: See? I wanted to mention Joey Bosa here. But yet again, The Guru steals my thunder.

It has been lost a bit in Haason Reddick’s recent rampage, but Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat is quietly on pace to better last year’s career-high 11 sacks and has worked his way into the top-20 at his position after two sacks against the Miami Dolphins a week ago. The Washington Commanders are on pace to break the all-time record for sacks allowed in a season set by the expansion Houston Texans in 2002, and the Philly pass rush should feast in the nation’s capital Sunday.

Due to a sore knee, Los Angeles Rams linebacker Ernest Jones wasn’t on the field for every defensive snap for the Los Angeles Rams for just the second time all season last week. He also had a season-low four total tackles. But that was the first time this year that Jones didn’t record at least nine stops, and this week, he faces a Cowboys team leading the league in fantasy points per game surrendered to linebackers.

Kyle Dugger of the New England Patriots is another big name that hasn’t lived up to the billing in 2023—the veteran safety ranks outside the top 40 defensive backs for the season. He was a non-factor in New England’s first meeting with the Dolphins this year as well. But Miami’s high-octane offense is ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to safeties this season, and after getting drilled by the Eagles last week, I expect Miami to come out aggressive on offense at home.