Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- WR Jaylen Waddle
- RB Isiah Pacheco
- QB Joe Burrow
- WR DeVonta Smith
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
- RB Salvon Ahmed
- RB David Montgomery
- WR Christian Watson
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
- RB Aaron Jones
- WR DK Metcalf
- WR Puka Nacua
Eligible to return from injured reserve
- N/A
Ruled Out
- RB Austin Ekeler (high ankle sprain)
- QB Anthony Richardson (concussion)
- QB Bryce Young (ankle injury)
- WR Odell Beckham Jr (ankle injury)
- RB Justice Hill (turf toe)
- RB Jamaal Williams (hamstring)
- WR Zay Jones (knee injury)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
Salvon Ahmed Miami Dolphins| Groin Strain | Likely Inactive
Salvon Ahmed logged limited snaps for Miami in the first two weeks but is currently listed as Doubtful heading into Sunday's game vs. the Broncos. 95% of players listed as Doubtful on the final injury report end of sitting. Ahmed was not fantasy-relevant since Raheem Mostert handled most of Miami's snaps, but his injury makes way for Devon Achane. Achane is a deep league flex option, but again this is Mostert's backfield.
Sunday Update: As expected - Ahmed is out.
Jaylen Waddle Miami Dolphins| Concussion | 50/50
While other teams have already ruled players with a concussion out, Miami is still holding out hope that Waddle can play. Every player that has a concussion must clear the concussion protocol prior to suiting up. Waddle has practiced some this week, and it sounds like he is close. But Saturday will be the key indicator. The good news is Miami is in the early slate, so managers should know early on if he is active or not.
Sunday Update: Miami has officially ruled Waddle out.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions | Toe Injury | Likely Active
In this week's Footballguys Monday Injury Report, I wrote about how there was some speculation that Amon-Ra St. Brown was dealing with turf toe. Sure enough, as the week progressed, we learned that this was, in fact, true.
Turf toe injuries are notoriously difficult for WRs to play through because they are really painful. Every time wide receivers run a route, they are pressing off their big toe and likely irritating it to some degree. In full transparency, the sample of players I have collected over the years is smaller, but on average, WRs miss 3+ weeks with a turf toe injury. I do not have any players listed who did not miss any time.
It sounds like Detroit is managing the injury the best they can, and St. Brown has come out and said he is going to play in Week 3. However, fantasy managers should be aware of this situation because St. Brown carries a much higher of leaving a game early due to this injury, and I would not be surprised to see him miss games later on in the season should his turf toe either get worse or not heal.
Sunday Update: Per Ian Rapoport Amon-Ra St. Brown is "optimistic" that he will play.
David Montgomery Detroit Lions | Thigh Contusion | Likely Inactive
David Montgomery did not practice all week following a thigh contusion injury. Although, on the surface, a thigh contusion might seem minor, they are also incredibly painful with a high re-injury risk given the positional demands a running back has. Montgomery is listed as Doubtful (again, a near guarantee he will not play / since 2017, 95% of players with the D tag sit), and I would not be shocked to see him miss Week 4 as well, given the aftermath of this injury.
Sunday Update: Not practicing all week proved that Montgomery was a long shot. He is officially out for Week 3.
Aaron Jones Green Bay Packers | Hamstring | Likely Active
After not practicing Wednesday, Aaron Jones logged two limited practices this week and is trending in the right direction to play Sunday. Jones' hamstring injury appeared minor, and I always thought that sitting in Week 2 would bode well for him to bounce back in Week 3. RBs carry a moderate re-injury risk with a hamstring strain - 16%. However, filtering out those who missed 0-1 weeks with a hamstring strain (suggesting a Grade I aka minor), the re-injury rate is 0%.
Sunday Update: Aaron Jones is out.
Christian Watson Green Bay Packers | Hamstring | Likely Inactive
While Aaron Jones is trending in the right direction, Christian Watson is heading the other way. Watson tried to practice Thursday but was apparently unable to finish and officially logged a Did Not Practice (DNP). On Friday, Watson was able to get a limited session in.
WR Christian Watson (hamstring) did not return. He tried yesterday but apparently wasn’t ready yet. pic.twitter.com/KGHyrYWe2T
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) September 21, 2023
When a situation like this seems murky, it's likely a bad sign. On the Week 1 edition of Gameday Expectations, I told subscribers that WRs who are field stretchers and run a sub 4.4 40-yard dash typically miss more time and have a high re-injury risk. This is because when you reach your top-end sprint speed, you put maximum strain on the hamstring muscle. Watson is known for his speed, and to perform at the top of his abilities, he needs to be able to run at full speed. There are enough indications that he is not there yet, suggesting Week 3 will be a no-go.
Sunday Update: Christian Watson is out.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Game
DK Metcalf Seattle Seahawks | Rib Injury | Likely Active
DK Metcalf briefly left mid-game in Week 2 with a rib injury but was able to return to action and finish the game. All signs point to Metcalf not having a rib fracture, which improves his odds of playing Sunday. Word out of Seattle is that Metcalf is trending in the right direction, and I would expect him to play Sunday afternoon.
Sunday Update: Reports are suggesting that Metcalf should be good to go in Week 3.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Games
Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Chiefs| Hamstring | 50/50
Isiah Pacheco popped up mid-week on the Chiefs' Injury Report with a hamstring strain, and after two limited practices in a row, he is questionable for Sunday. This feels like a similar injury to that of Aaron Jones, where it is likely a minor injury, but Pacheco could still miss time. ~85% of RBs miss at least one with a hamstring injury. So as I write this Saturday morning, I am leaning towards Pacheco not playing but think his status is very much up in the air.
Sunday Update: NFL Insider Jordon Schultz reports that Pacheco is expected to play.
Monday Night 7:15 PM EST Game
DeVonta Smith Philadelphia Eagles | Thigh/Hamstring | 50/50
Unlike RBs, there is more data to support WRs missing zero games with a hamstring injury. If you roster DeVonta Smith, I think there is hope he plays on Monday. Smith has played 99% of the Eagles' offensive snaps through the first two weeks so they are likely being conservative with him and limiting his practice reports if he has any type of ailment. Personally, I think we would have heard more about this injury if it was serious. Smith is a game-time decision, but one I feel good about.
Sunday Update: DeVonta Smith was left off the final injury report. He will play in Week 3.
Monday Night 8:15 PM EST Game
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals | Calf (Re)-Injury | 50/50
It seems like everyone is monitoring the Joe Burrow injury. I get it. A lot of fantasy teams invested high draft capital into this offense. From a sports medicine/healing perspective, Burrow should probably sit. But the Bengals are 0-2, and there is enough data in my collection that shows players with this injury can play even if they probably should not. It's a risky call since Cincinnati plays on Monday night, but I am projecting Burrow to start.
Joe Burrow is out here at Saturday Bengals practice running and doing full warmup with high energy.
— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) September 23, 2023
Puka Nacua Los Angeles Rams | Oblique/Core Injury | Likely Active
Puka Nacua is on the injury report with the same injury as last week, but I am not worrying, and neither should you. Nacua played through this exact injury and finished as the WR2 with 30+ PPR points. Fire him up in your lineups.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, Nacua is expected to play.