WEEK 17 PREPARATION
Congratulations to those of you who dominated the playoffs up to this point or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. Several big names failed to come through for us in Week 16, including Brock Purdy, De'Von Achane, Alvin Kamara, Ken Walker III, Travis Etienne Jr., Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and that's just the short list. If you managed to navigate several roadblocks of poor play, congratulations because it was a minefield. You looked at bad luck in the face and said, "Is that all you got?" There will be some teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but there's also a great deal of luck involved. Congratulations if you made it this far. A lot of strong teams will be watching from home without a team competing in Week 17. I summed up the fantasy playoffs with this tweet from last year, and it still applies.
Winning a Championship in Fantasy FootballðŸ†
— Jeff Haseley (@JeffHaseley) December 27, 2022
â–ªï¸Get to the playoffs with a few strong players, consistent play, and good depth
â–ªï¸Take advantage of good matchups and fade tough ones
â–ªï¸Hope for good luck on your side and bad luck for your opponent
â–ªï¸Navigate the refs
-No problem
For those of you who did make it...Week 17 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. (Hopefully, the majority of you do not have a Week 18 Championship). Maybe you have a lot of money on the line. Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends, or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on how you can take down your opponent and lift the trophy.
HISTORICALLY, HOME RUNNING BACKS ARE MORE PRODUCTIVE
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Jonathan Taylor (vs LSV), Rachaad White (vs NO), James Cook (vs NE), Saquon Barkley (vs LAR), Travis Etienne Jr. (vs CAR), D'Andre Swift (vs ARI), Tony Pollard (vs DET), Javonte Williams (vs LAC), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs CIN), Khalil Herbert (vs ATL), and Devin Singletary (vs TEN) all have home games this week.
LET'S NOT FORGET ABOUT MATCHUPS
Each of these teams allows at least 1 rushing touchdown per game to running backs this year: Carolina, Seattle, and Indianapolis, with an honorable mention for exploiting the Washington ground game.
Opponents for each
- Carolina at Jacksonville - Last week, the Panthers allowed 127 yards rushing to a now-healthy Aaron Jones. They have struggled all season to keep opposing running backs in check, especially in the red zone, as they allowed 18 rushing touchdowns to backs. Travis Etienne Jr. had one of the toughest playoff schedules, and his results showed it. If you made it this far and you roster Etienne, he is worth a start despite difficult games against Cleveland, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay to get to this point.
- Seattle vs Pittsburgh - The Seahawks have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, including six in the last six games. This could prove to be a welcome matchup for the Steelers duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris scored a touchdown last week and has five scores this season, while Warren is more of the team's receiving threat, catching 14 passes in the last three games with 52 receptions this season. Both are capable of double-digit PPR points in any given week.
- Indianapolis vs Las Vegas - Like Seattle, the Colts have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns to running backs in 15 games. The Colts have also allowed at least one running back to reach double-digit PPR points in every game since Week 3. Will Josh Jacobs (quad) be back for this game? If not, Zamir White has shown that he can be an adequate replacement with two straight fantasy-worthy games. One would expect the Raiders will exploit this weakness of the Colts, and either Jacobs or White will benefit greatly. Monitor the practice status for Jacobs this week. If he misses, White could be a league-winning play.
- Washington vs San Francisco - Washington has been a doormat for opposing running backs this season, especially recently. Going back to Week 7, Washington has allowed at least one 20-point PPR running back in seven of eight games. Christian McCaffrey is this week's lucky back, but the decision to play him is already a foregone conclusion. Those who advanced to the Championship with McCaffrey are sitting pretty. Those who did not advance with McCaffrey will be crying in their beer after this week.
Denver, Arizona, and the NY Giants also allow over 100 yards rushing per game to running backs.
WHAT TO DO AT QUARTERBACK?
For the most part, you probably have your quarterbacks in place, and they likely came through for you in the clutch for you to be playing in this trophy match this week. For those of you who might be in the market for a quarterback due to injury or looking to block your opponent who has an injury at quarterback, or maybe you are looking for a matchup play for your superflex league? Here's a look at who might be worthy of starting in Week 17, especially in two-quarterback leagues.
Bryce Young, Carolina at Jacksonville. Don't look now, but Bryce Young has played his two best games as a pro in his last two outings, including his first 300-yard game last week against Green Bay. Young may be coming around. But Carolina's offense this season has still underachieved, so why is this a decent matchup to consider? Jacksonville's pass defense has struggled recently. Since Week 10, the Jaguars have allowed 13 touchdown passes in the last seven games, with 269 yards per game. Young has found a connection with D.J. Chark recently, and it could continue this week in a favorable matchup for the reeling Jaguars, who may also be without Trevor Lawrence (shoulder).
Nick Mullens, Minnesota vs Green Bay - Nick Mullens has a 300-yard and 400-yard game in his last two starts with four touchdown passes. On the downside, he has six interceptions, plus he could be without two of his top targets: T.J. Hockenson (knee) and Jordan Addison (ankle). The matchup is a positive one for Mullens, though. Green Bay has allowed 12 touchdown passes in the last six games, with three 300-yard passing games allowed in their last five. This all bodes well for Mullens and Vikings this week.
WHO ARE SOME WAIVER PICKUPS THAT YOU CAN POTENTIALLY START THIS WEEK?
In most cases, the last player to earn a spot in your starting lineup is the one who can shift the points total in your favor when the last snap is made on Monday Night Football. Which player is the difference-maker? It could come from the last player you insert into your lineup. Here are a few options if you're in dire need of help or need a replacement due to a Week 16 injury.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, KC - Isiah Pacheco's concussion status for Week 17 is unknown, but figure a 30-40% chance that he will not be available, especially on a shortened week. If he will be inactive, expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to fill the role in a decent matchup against Cincinnati.
Justice Hill RB, BAL - Without Keaton Mitchell (knee), the Ravens have leaned on Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Edwards has 12 touchdowns this season, so he's not going to be available on waivers, but Hill, who has seen his usage jump in the last few weeks, might be and is a decent grab for this week's home matchup vs. Miami.
Khalil Herbert RB, CHI - There was a question as to how Chicago would best utilize the rushing role with D'Onta Foreman (unknown/personal) out of the lineup. That question was answered last week when Khalil Herbert rushed 20 times for 112 yards and a score. The Bears are not tanking and have won two straight games. This week, they will face the Falcons at home, which is a bad matchup for scoring - Atlanta has allowed only one touchdown to running backs this season (Jonathan Taylor last week). Herbert could still produce decent numbers even without a score.
K.J. Osborn WR, MIN - Jordan Addison (ankle) may not be available in Week 17, leaving K.J. Osborn as his replacement on an offense with two straight 300-yard games. If you're looking for a replacement for Addison, Osborn is a good place to start.
D.J. Chark Jr WR, CAR - The Panthers have seen an uptick in offensive success recently, and Chark has been a big reason for the boon. He had 6-98-2 against Green Bay last week and is rising up Bryce Young's target tree.
Rashid Shaheed WR, NO - Rashid Shaheed quietly has eight catches in the last two games, and last week, he finished with 5-70-1 on 82% of offensive snaps, by far the most he has had this season.
Wan'Dale Robinson WR, NYG - Wan'Dale Robinson has the most targets on the team (30) since Week 10 with 22 receptions for 187 yards. However, Robinson has only seven targets in two of the last three games. This week's opponent, the Rams, has allowed a 100-yard wide receiver in each of the last two games and 190 yards to wide receivers on average since Week 10. Robinson and/or Darius Slayton could benefit from a good matchup this week with a slight lean toward Robinson.
Tyler Scott WR, CHI - DJ Moore (ankle) may be out in Week 17 after battling through and struggling in Week 16. If Moore is out, Tyler Scott becomes a player of interest and is likely on most waiver wires.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. WR, MIA - Miami is dealing with injuries and uncertainties on offense, especially Jaylen Waddle, who left the game last week with a high-ankle sprain. Look for Wilson to assume Waddle's role on offense, and he could be someone who receives a lot of volume in what could be a pass-heavy matchup against the Ravens in Week 17.
Tucker Kraft TE, GB - Tucker Kraft has assumed the leading tight end role since Week 12 when Luke Musgrave was placed on IR with a kidney injury. Kraft's numbers are 17-233-2 since Week 12 (TE10). He has four receptions in each of his last three games.
Josh Oliver TE, MIN - T.J. Hockenson (knee) is expected to be out in Week 17. He will battle with Johnny Mundt for snaps and targets, but Oliver is arguably the better downfield threat.
Thank you for reading. Questions, comments, and start/sit decisions are always welcome. Hit me up on "X", formerly Twitter.