Fantasy Overview - Week 6

As we enter Week 6 of the 2023 season, I want to share some tips, advice, and thoughts on various players, teams, and situations. With all of the outlets and resources available now, it is becoming more difficult to separate yourself from the rest of the pack when it comes to knowledge and strategy. To gain that extra edge, you have to make proactive moves that cash in, plan ahead, know your players' schedules, read helpful columns, and, above all, execute the game plan for success. In no particular order, here are a few items that can help you gain that edge.

Be Aware of Players Returning from Injury as Well as Players Benefiting From an Injury

• Austin Ekeler RB, LAC - Austin Ekeler is returning from a high ankle sprain and might be available to play Week 6 against Dallas. Even though he can return, it doesn't mean he will be back to his pre-injury form. We often see with players with a high-ankle injury, running backs, especially, see lingering effects for several weeks. While it's great to get him back into your lineup, temper your expectations on his effectiveness.
• Joe Burrow QB, CIN - Joe Burrow has had a calf strain since August that he re-injured in September. Soft-tissue injuries like this can be tricky to recover from quickly. He finally broke through with a big game last week, which is a good indicator that he might've turned the corner on his route to recovery.
• Diontae Johnson WR, PIT - The Steelers have a Week 6 bye, but Johnson is expected to return for Week 7. Be sure to get him back in your lineup. He had 147 targets last year.
• Cooper Kupp WR, LAR - So far, in one game back from a hamstring strain and re-injury, Cooper Kupp looks like his old self, racking up the targets and catches. Puka Nacua isn't going away, so don't necessarily expect Kupp to dominate targets like he has in the past. He should still be a high-end fantasy option, regardless.
• Aaron Jones RB, GB - Aaron Jones is working on a hamstring strain recovery, and after returning in Week 4, he sat out Week 5. The Packers have a bye in Week 6, which means he'll likely return in Week 7, barring a setback. For those of you who weathered the storm keeping him on your bench, Jones' return will be a welcomed addition to your lineup.
• Javonte Williams RB, DEN - A quad injury kept Williams out of Week 5, but he is already taking part in full practices this week. He should be able to return to play on Thursday night against the Chiefs. A full load as the primary back may be a tough ask, though. Denver has weapons in the backfield in addition to Williams - namely Jaleel McLoughlin and Samaje Perine.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, SEA - A preseason wrist injury has slowed Smith-Njigba's ascent in the league, but the Seahawks also have plenty of options without him. It will be good to see him at 100%, but a fast rise to stardom may not be the case.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown WR, DET - An abdominal strain of sorts shelved St. Brown in Week 5. However, early signs this week speak of him returning to the field in Week 6. Monitor his practice status. If he has a full practice on Friday, he should be good to go.
• Deshaun Watson QB, CLE - Deshaun Watson's shoulder injury timed up well with the Browns Week 5 bye. He is expected to return to the field for Cleveland in Week 6 against San Francisco.

Players benefiting from injury

• Emari Demercado RB, ARI - James Conner's knee injury, which required him to be placed on the injured reserve (IR), is unfortunate for Conner himself, but it creates an opportunity for his replacement. Demercado, an undrafted free agent, has assumed the backup role after Keaontay Ingram, and now he has the chance to demonstrate his abilities at this level. A promising debut last week, with 45 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown, was a positive start to his audition.
• Raheem Mostert RB, MIA - De'Von Achane, who has been performing exceptionally well as one of the top running backs in the AFC, is about to face a sudden setback due to a knee injury. This injury will force Achane to sit out for several games, and possibly even more, depending on how severe it is. During his absence, Raheem Mostert is expected to take on the majority of the team's carries. Even if Jeff Wilson Jr. shares some playing time with Mostert, he still remains an attractive option for fantasy football. Treat Mostert as you would have treated Achane, and you should expect similar results.
• Roschon Johnson RB, CHI - Johnson is in the concussion protocol, but he has more time to recover because his game was on Thursday. Khalil Herbert has a high-ankle sprain and is likely to be unavailable for 3-4 weeks. Johnson has a good opportunity to demonstrate his abilities.
• Gardner Minshew QB, IND - The Colts lost their rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to a shoulder injury that could keep him out until Week 12. Filling in for Indianapolis is veteran Gardner Minshew. The Colts' upcoming schedule is not kind, however, with games at Jacksonville and then home for Cleveland and New Orleans.

Stay Active on the Waiver Wire, but Also See Who Others Are Dropping and Be Prepared to Make Claims

Be active on the waiver wire, targeting players with a productive future, not just a one-game outing. How do you know the difference? Targets and snap counts will give a clue as to the player's involvement in the offense. You want players with at least 65-70% of the team's offensive snaps and generally five targets or more and a good game to show for it. Team Target Share is also a good indicator. Anything over 20% is strong. Potential waiver claims with strong usage include...

• Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, MIA - The Dolphins like to include multiple running backs in their offense, and so far, they have had a lot of success. The knee injury to De'Von Achane opens the door for both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.. Wilson (ribs) may be on the wire and he could return this week in a favorable matchup against Carolina. If he's active, he's worth starting as a flex.
• Logan Thomas, TE, WAS - Logan Thomas was a common target for Sam Howell in Week 5 (11 targets, 9 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD). Week 5 featured a heavy passing game script for Washington but the rapport established with Howell will warrant future targets.
• K.J. Osborn WR, MIN - The injury to Justin Jefferson (hamstring) means others have the chance to step up in Kirk Cousins' offense. That includes Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn. Addison may already be rostered, but Osborn is likely on the wire and could provide similar production.
• Josh Downs WR, IND - The Colts rookie wide receiver is making a splash with a strong game in his last outing. He has formed a good rapport with Gardner Minshew and should remain one of the top targets in the Colts offense.
• Rashee Rice WR, KC - Rashee Rice is slowly making his way as Patrick Mahomes II' top wide receiver option after Travis Kelce. Rice has team target percentages of 19%, 17%, and 13% in the last three games. No other Chiefs wide receiver can boast that. He also has two touchdowns this season.
• Dalton Schultz TE, HOU - With Tank Dell out with a concussion, Dalton Schultz became a key piece of the Texans' offense with a 31% team target share in Week 5. If Dell is out for Week 6, look for Schultz to be involved from the beginning.

Waiver Wire Tips

• Target players who have risen in the depth chart due to an injury or performance. Zack Moss and Jaleel McLoughlin are good examples of that. This is also true for quarterbacks. While it hasn't been a big year for backup quarterback success stories, Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, and potentially Tyrod Taylor and/or Bailey Zappe are examples of quarterbacks who could yield some fantasy value in multiple-quarterback leagues.
• There are several different variations for obtaining players available on the waiver wire - there's your first-come, first-serve waiver, which can be great if you're on the ball and ahead of your league mates. You get the player you want, and you don't have to outbid anyone else to claim that player. There's an order of rankings waiver order, which is not as good as first-come, first-serve (FCFS), but it can still be a beneficial and perhaps an easy way to get the players you want. When bidding becomes the process for obtaining players, you have to know how much you have to spend, what the maximum budget is for the season, and how important it is to acquire a player at all costs. Generally, spending in the early weeks of the season is the way to acquire coveted players, but saving your free agent budget could prove helpful later on when your starting running back gets hurt and you need his replacement - hopefully, he's on the waiver wire.
• Be ready to pounce on players who are dropped. In some leagues, waivers are run after 10:00 pm and possibly later. This is a good time to pounce on players when the activity level of your league-mates is lower. Those on the West Coast can especially benefit from this. Let's say your league mate wants to acquire the flavor of the week, but he/she has to drop someone to keep their roster legal. Be ready to make a move, especially if your league allows immediate acquisition of players who were recently dropped.
• Generally, fantasy teams only keep one defense on their roster (if your league includes team defenses). Be ready to scoop up a high-performing defense that was dropped due to a bye week, especially if you have the space on your roster to temporarily house two defenses. Dallas (Week 7 bye) and San Francisco (Week 9 bye) are potential targets if dropped.

Read Other Footballguys Articles

Footballguys produces a ton of weekly content. If you're reading this article, you also have access to these outstanding weekly must-read pieces, among others, that we provide at Footballguys.

• UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES - by Sigmund Bloom. This will tell you who you should target on the waiver wire, how much you should spend (if bidding), and a commentary on why players have been upgraded or downgraded. We do the work for you in this weekly piece. Posted weekly Monday late afternoon or early evening. If you're in IDP leagues, Aaron Rudnicki does the same for IDP players in his IDP UPGRADES article.
• Another must-read weekly article is WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM LAST WEEK by Sigmund Bloom. This keeps you informed of all of the ups and downs around the league in an easy-to-read format. A Cliff's Notes version of the league's landscape to keep you in the know.
• THE TOP 10 - by Matt Waldman. Each week, Matt shares 10 important facets of the game, which can be player-driven, coach-driven, scheme-driven, or just chronicling things he observed in last week's slate of games. Not only does he share his thoughts, but he uses video to explain how or why something caught his attention.
• REST OF SEASON RANKINGS - Bob Henry and Justin Freeman do a great job of updating this spreadsheet to factor in recent success that updates the rest-of-season rankings. This can be helpful when evaluating trade offers or if you're on the fence about a player to pick up or drop. This is also available for IDP projections.
• MONDAY INJURY ROUNDS and *SUNDAY INJURY EXPECTATIONS *available on Saturday - by Adam Hutchison. Adam is a Physical Therapist with a vast knowledge of sports injuries. He provides updates on player injuries on Sunday mornings and Mondays. It's a must-read if you're on the fence about the status of players on your team.

Target Pre-Emptive Waiver Pickups

What is a pre-emptive waiver pick-up? Targeting a player on waivers where you don't have to spend much, if any, of your free agent budget. This generally occurs after waivers have gone through for the week. In some cases, if a player is highly coveted, you can target them using your free agent budget so you can ensure you claim them.

These players are usually non-starters who could benefit in the coming weeks due to a matchup, impending coaching decision, increase in usage, or a general hunch that they will rise to fantasy relevance. Usually, these pickups are planned for future use as players that you can stash and wait for them to blossom into fantasy starters. Larger leagues or leagues with high roster spots are best for stashing players. Winning on a pre-emptive waiver claim makes the return on your investment a much sweeter experience because it was you who decided to roll the dice on a player that turned into a gem. Examples of gems from this season include Josh Reynolds, Puka Nacua, Jerome Ford, and Sam LaPorta, among others.

Pre-Emptive Waiver Claim Targets (for Deeper Leagues)

1. Tyquan Thornton WR, NE - The Patriots are dealing with multiple wide receiver injuries. Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas are in the concussion protocol. Thornton is returning from a pre-season IR stint and could find himself being targeted early and often.
2. Salvon Ahmed RB, MIA - The Dolphins without De'Von Achane will feature Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.. However, if Wilson isn't ready to return or if another injury presents itself, Ahmed could find a niche in one of the league's best offenses.
3. Quentin Johnston WR, LAC - It's been a slow start for the rookie first-round pick, Johnston, but sometimes it takes longer than others to get acclimated to the game. An increase in involvement coming off the bye may be in the cards. Other managers may have given up on him, but one good game could spark his ascension.
4. Kyler Murray QB, ARI - Joshua Dobbs is playing fairly well for Arizona, but Kyler Murray (ACL recovery) is expected to make his return at some point this season. If you need quarterback help in two-quarterback leagues, Murray is a decent target if you have roster space.
5. Keaton Mitchell RB, BAL - The Ravens are looking for help in the backfield. Last week, Justice Hill submitted his application, but Keaton Mitchell (shoulder IR) will be returning in Week 6 and could be someone who finds success in Baltimore's offense.
6. Laviska Shenault Jr WR, CAR - The Panthers have already used Shenault as a dual-weapon at running back and wide receiver. If the coaching staff continues to send touches his way, he could develop some fantasy appeal.
7. Justyn Ross WR, KC - Don't look now, but Ross saw a 10% team target share in Week 5. He was in on only 6 snaps, but he was targeted 4 times. The Chiefs are looking his way when he is on the field. If that increases, so could Ross's stock.

Thanks for reading. Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on "X", formerly Twitter.

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