To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.
This article will use these principles to find value in the wide receiver position.
Key Points Up Front
- Diontae Johnson is too cheap and is simply a must-add, our highest conviction WR buy.
- Our other buys are A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Brandin Cooks, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
- We are upgrading to buy both Treylon Burks and Rondale Moore.
- We are downgrading to sell Jonathan Mingo.
WR Clusters
We will now look at the fantasy wide receiver landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players. Please take a look at the chart below. This chart is an exciting way to look at the wide receiver group. The clusters are graphed with increasing estimated 2023 PPG on the horizontal axis and decreasing age (youngest on top) on the vertical axis. The players are divided into clusters shown by the gray dashed lines by PPGs of 18+, 15-18, 12-15, 10-12, 7-10, and by age: <25, 25-28, & 29+. Visually these clusters are grouped by color. Also, the size of the bubble represents each player's KTC, so the bigger the bubble, the higher the KTC. Below we will break apart each cluster to look for value amongst the like-for-like players — big shout out to @NFL_Billy_Jones for helping me put this chart together.
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