Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 46.5
- Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 49.5
- Denver Broncos at Houston Texans - Over/Under 47.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Buccaneers at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 21
- Steelers at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 23.5
- Chargers on road vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 23.8
- Lions on road vs. Saints - Implied Team Total 25
- Rams at home vs. Browns - Implied Team Total 21.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | at Eagles | $6,100 |
| 2 | Baker Mayfield | vs. Panthers | $5,500 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | at Patriots | $8,000 |
Brock Purdy is playing in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (46.5) of the week in a favorable fantasy game where each team and offense should push each other. He's priced at just $6,100, making him a solid salary saver considering he leads a 49ers offense that leads the NFL in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and Dropback EPA and ranks top ten in both passing yards per game (261) and pass touchdowns per game (1.7) on the year.
Baker Mayfield is priced at just $5,500 and gets to play at home against the worst team in the league. Carolina's defense ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Despite the Chargers' lack of team success, Justin Herbert has been balling on season-long. Herbert leads a Chargers offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play, fifth in Dropback EPA, sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). He ranks tenth in passing yards per game (256.9) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The matchup is strong against a bad Patriots team whose defense only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Moss | at Titans | $4,600 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | at Eagles | $9,000 |
| 3 | D'Andre Swift | vs. 49ers | $6,600 |
| 4 | David Montgomery | at Saints | $6,500 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | at Jets | $6,700 |
Jonathan Taylor's absence makes Zack Moss a free square in both cash and tournaments priced at just $4,600. Over the first four games of the season without Taylor, Moss averaged 24.5 opportunities per game, 129.3 total yards per game, and 1 touchdown. Moss is a smash play against a Titans defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Christian McCaffrey is a cash game lock every week. He leads the NFL in opportunities per game (22.8) and total touchdowns (16) and ranks second in total yards per game (120.7). The Eagles' defense ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (14th) and Rush EPA Allowed (17th).
D'Andre Swift ranks 13th in opportunities per game (18.2), is playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week, and the 49ers defense can be had against the run as they rank 27th in Rush EPA Allowed.
David Montgomery ranks 11th in opportunities per game (18.3), 15th in total yards per game (92), and sixth in total touchdowns (9). The Lions are 4.5-point favorites and the Saints defense ranks 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.
It's Bijan Robinson time. Over the past two games: Opportunities: 24 and 22, Total Yards: 106 and 123, and Touchdowns: 1 and 2. The Falcons are three-point favorites against a bad Jets team and their defense only ranks 14th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keenan Allen | at Patriots | $9,000 |
| 2 | Michael Pittman | at Titans | $7,100 |
| 3 | Josh Downs | at Titans | $5,100 |
| 4 | Curtis Samuel | vs. Dolphins | $4,100 |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Saints | $8,500 |
| 6 | Nico Collins | vs. Broncos | $6,800 |
| 7 | Puka Nacua | vs. Browns | $7,000 |
Keenan Allen is listed as questionable but stated his injury is "not bad." He'll be out there against a bad Patriots defense that only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Allen is the majority of the Chargers offense right now. Here are his target totals over the past three games: 14, 16, and 16.
Michael Pittman ranks seventh in targets per game (10.1), eighth in receptions per game (6.9), and 17th in receiving yards per game (71.3). Meanwhile, Josh Downs saw 13 targets last week and is priced at just $5,100. Both are strong plays in a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Curtis Samuel caught 9 of 12 targets for 100 yards last week and is priced at just $4,100 at home in a game where the Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs. And his offense already ranks second in PROE and third in EDPF.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is inevitable. He ranks second in targets per game (10.9), second in receptions per game (8.2), and fourth in receiving yards per game (99.3). He's a cash lock if paying up at wide receiver.
Dalton Schultz is out and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown are both listed as questionable. With the rest of C.J. Stroud's weapons out or likely operating at less than 100%, look for Noah Brown to lead the team in targets on Sunday. And Collins is at home in a game tied for the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week. Although Denver's defense has been much better since Week 4, the Broncos still only rank 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Cooper Kupp appears to be operating at less than 100% and Puka Nacua ranks seventh in targets per game (10.1), 13th in receptions per game (6.6), and ninth in receiving yards per game (84). Nacua has earned those targets as he ranks 13th at wide receiver in yards per route run (2.39).
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Freiermuth | vs. Cardinals | $4,300 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | at Steelers | $4,900 |
| 3 | Logan Thomas | vs. Dolphins | $3,600 |
Pat Freiermuth caught 9 of 11 targets for 120 yards last week and now gets to play at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Trey McBride is questionable but if he plays he should be plenty busy. His target totals over his past three games are 9, 7, and 9. Michael Wilson is out once again and Marquise Brown is also listed as questionable after not practicing all week.
The Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs and Washington's offense under Eric Bieniemy already ranks second in PROE and third in EDPF. That bodes well for Logan Thomas who allows for salary relief priced at just $3,600.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | vs. Panthers | $3,600 |
| 2 | Dolphins | at Commanders | $3,900 |
The Panthers have scored the fourth fewest points in the NFL this season and have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (15.5) of the entire week. Bryce Young has been sacked the second-most times in the entire league (40).
Sam Howell has been sacked the most in the NFL (55). With the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites, Miami's defense projects to have plenty of chances to sack and turnover Howell.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tua Tagovailoa | at Commanders | $7,900 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | vs. 49ers | $8,200 |
| 3 | Russell Wilson | at Texans | $5,700 |
| 4 | C.J. Stroud | vs. Broncos | $8,100 |
Tua Tagovailoa is set up to go nuclear here. He leads a Dolphins offense that ranks third in EPA/Play, second in Dropback EPA, fourth in PROE, and eighth in EDPF. He ranks third in both passing yards per game (288.8) and pass touchdowns per game (2). The matchup can't get any better. Washington's defense ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jalen Hurts is at home in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (46.5) of the week in a favorable fantasy game where each team and offense should push each other. Hurts leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (24.3) and leads an Eagles offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play, fourth in Dropback EPA, ninth in PROE, and fourth in EDPF.
This Broncos at Texans game is tied for the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week and Russell Wilson is priced at just $5,700 with a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Wilson ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and is coming off a game where he carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards and 1 touchdown.
C.J. Stroud is the absolute truth. Stroud leads a Texans offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play and seventh in Dropback EPA and he ranks first in passing yards per game (296.9) and eighth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). He's at home in a game tied for the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week and although Denver's defense has been much better since Week 4, the Broncos still only rank 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyren Williams | vs. Browns | $7,200 |
| 2 | Najee Harris | vs. Cardinals | $5,200 |
| 3 | Jaylen Warren | vs. Cardinals | $5,400 |
| 4 | Rachaad White | vs. Panthers | $6,300 |
| 5 | Rhamondre Stevenson | vs. Chargers | $6,000 |
Kyren Williams ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.4), fourth in total yards per game (109.3), and sixth in touchdowns (9). In his return from an ankle sprain last week, Williams turned 22 touches into 204 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Browns defense only ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. Williams should be priced at least $1,000 higher. Play him.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both have a fantastic matchup on tap at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed. The Steelers are 5.5-point home favorites. The running back duo are both in play with extremely affordable price tags.
Rachaad White has the dream matchup at home against a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed. The Buccaneers are 5.5-point home favorites. And White's volume is extremely bankable as he ranks ninth in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.4).
Rhamondre Stevenson ranks 14th in opportunities per game (17.9) and has topped 100 total yards in three straight games. He's at home against a bad Chargers defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | at Commanders | $9,600 |
| 2 | Jaylen Waddle | at Commanders | $7,600 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | vs. Panthers | $7,700 |
| 4 | A.J. Brown | vs. 49ers | $8,800 |
| 5 | DeVonta Smith | vs. 49ers | $7,300 |
| 6 | Brandon Aiyuk | at Eagles | $7,200 |
| 7 | Deebo Samuel | at Eagles | $6,200 |
| 8 | Greg Dortch | at Steelers | $3,700 |
| 9 | George Pickens | vs. Cardinals | $4,800 |
| 10 | Terry McLaurin | vs. Dolphins | $5,500 |
I can't imagine making a DFS lineup this week without Tyreek Hill. Hill ranks second in targets per game (10.9), third in receptions per game (8), and first in receiving yards per game (120.4). He's always recoverable so imagine what he'll do to Washington's defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Jaylen Waddle is very much in play too, especially in Tua Tagovailoa doubles. Waddle has seen eight targets in back-to-back games and is coming off a contest where he caught all eight of his passes for 114 yards.
Chris Godwin is a game-time decision, which should only funnel more targets toward Mike Evans' direction in a favorable spot at home against the worst team in the league. Carolina's defense ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Evans ranks second in the NFL in touchdown receptions (9).
Dallas Goedert is doubtful meaning he's almost certain to miss one more game before returning for an important divisional clash against the Cowboys in Week 14. That means we get another game where A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the clear-cut top two options in Philadelphia's passing game. This has largely benefited Smith who has posted 6-99 on 8 targets and 7-106-1 on 8 targets over the past two games. But do not give in to recency bias and forget Brown is that dude. Brown ranks 11th in targets per game (9.5), 13th in receptions per game (6.6), and sixth in receiving yards per game (95.5).
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are playing in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (46.5) of the week in a favorable fantasy game where each team and offense should push each other. This matchup isn't a must-stay away as the Eagles' defense ranks 14th in EPA/Play Allowed and 12th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Aiyuk is the preference here as he ranks second out of all wide receivers in yards per route run (3.17) but Samuel is $1,000 cheaper and ranks well in yards per route run (19th) as well.
Michael Wilson is out and both Marquise Brown and Trey McBride are listed as questionable. Greg Dortch has played on 75+% of the offensive snaps in back-to-back games and seen target totals of 8 and 9 over that stretch. He's priced at just $3,700.
Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high 278 yards last week in his first game without Matt Canada. Things are moving in the right direction and that should continue here at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. It's tough to predict between George Pickens and Diontae Johnson since only one of them is likely to hit a tournament-winning ceiling in this offense but prioritize Pickens this week after Johnson put minimal effort on film in Week 12.
The Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs and Washington's offense under Eric Bieniemy already ranks second in PROE and third in EDPF. Terry McLaurin has yet to hit a high ceiling this season but has seen 28 more targets than any other teammate, caught 13 more passes than any other teammate, and racked up 251 more receiving yards than any other teammate. Priced at just $5,500, the process makes sense here.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Njoku | at Rams | $4,100 |
| 2 | Juwan Johnson | vs. Lions | $3,400 |
| 3 | Gerald Everett | at Patriots | $3,500 |
| 4 | George Kittle | at Eagles | $6,200 |
Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback for the Browns. Flacco is old and immobile and will have Aaron Donald running at him all day. Look for Flacco to target his tight ends and running backs often. That's exciting news for Njoku who has already seen 9, 15, and 9 targets over his past three contests. And the Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.1) this season.
Without Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, look for New Orleans to get Juwan Johnson more involved. Johnson saw a season-high seven targets and posted a season-high 45 receiving yards last week. He's priced at just $3,400 while the Saints are at home as 4.5-point underdogs, projecting the offense for increased pass volume.
Gerald Everett returned from a one-week absence due to injury to play on 64% of the offensive snaps last week. He caught all four of his targets for 43 yards and 1 touchdown. With Keenan Allen banged up heading into this one and the Chargers already without Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, Everett is a fun tournament play against a bad Patriots team whose defense only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
George Kiltte is playing in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (46.5) of the week in a favorable fantasy game where each team and offense should push each other. This matchup isn't a must-stay away as the Eagles' defense ranks 14th in EPA/Play Allowed and 12th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Kittle offers a ceiling at the right end position that few others possess.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | at Jets | $3,400 |
| 2 | Chargers | at Patriots | $4,000 |
Tim Boyle threw just one touchdown pass his entire collegiate career and has thrown three interceptions on just 52 pass attempts this season. The Falcons D/ST is the best play of the week and priced at just $3,400.
The Patriots have scored the fewest points (148) in the entire NFL and have the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (17.8) of the week. Their quarterback situation is a mess and they'll be without both Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte in this one.
Key Injuries
- Jonathan Taylor OUT - Upgrade Zack Moss
- Dallas Goedert Doubtful - Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
- Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed OUT - Upgrade Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and A.T. Perry
- Chris Godwin Game Time Decision - Upgrade Mike Evans, Trey Palmer, and Cade Otton.
- Dalton Schultz OUT - Upgrade Brevin Jordan
- Michael Wilson OUT - Upgrade Marquise Brown (Questionable - IF he plays), Trey McBride (Questionable - IF he plays), Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson OUT - Upgrade Joe Flacco
- Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte OUT - Upgrade DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton
- Hayden Hurst OUT and Tommy Tremble Doubtful - Upgrade Stephen Sullivan and Ian Thomas
- Keenan Allen Questionable
- Breece Hall Questionable
- Marquise Brown Questionable
- Trey McBride Questionable
- Tank Dell Questionable
- Noah Brown Questionable
- Treylon Burks Questionable
- Ezekiel Elliott Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle; Runback Option: Terry McLaurin
- Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown; Runback Options in order: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle