Week 1 is for learning. Learning what we thought we knew and what we were wrong about. While it's important not to overreact, making roster moves before Week 2 can drastically shift your fantasy team's trajectory. Usage is the most important trend to notice in Week 1, and that usage has some guys moving up and down my rankings. Let's dive in!
Three Up
RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons' draft day selection of Bijan Robinson was surprising. Tyler Allgeier had a very effective rookie season, especially considering his lack of draft capital. Drafting a running back felt like an unnecessary luxury for a team without a secure quarterback and holes throughout the defense. Allgeier eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie. His rushing yards over expectation per attempt ranked ninth-best in the league. He was in the top 20 in yards per touch, juke rate, evaded tackles, and breakaway run rate. While many expected the newly drafted Robinson to push Allgeier to the wayside, the Falcons will provide a heavy dose of both backs this season. Robinson is the more dynamic of the two and will be plenty involved in the receiving game. But Allgeier has a size advantage and could be the RB1 in the run game, including goal-line touches. Looking at opportunities (carries and targets), the running backs combined for 35 on Sunday. Five went to the wide receivers. Three went to the tight ends. There will be enough volume for Robinson and Allgeier to be in your weekly lineups.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
No Cooper Kupp, no problem! Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua generated a steady drumbeat throughout the preseason, but his Week 1 outing was surprising. His ten receptions were the second-most ever by a rookie in their NFL debut. His 15 targets were the third-most. While the other names on those lists include Terry Glenn, Anquan Boldin, and Julian Edelman, Earl Cooper, and Keke Coutee also had similarly impressive debuts before relatively quiet NFL careers. It's important not to overreact too much to a single game, but he was the clear WR1 on a team that looked much better than people anticipated. He was catching quick balls near the line of scrimmage, making contested catches, stretching the field, and making plays after the catch. He looked, dare I say, awfully similar to Cooper Kupp! And, like Kupp, he doesn't possess elite athleticism. But his knack for finding soft spots in zones and shaking defenders translated from college fields to the NFL. Still available in most fantasy football leagues, he should be a priority target in all formats.
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Did the Packers stumble into their third straight Hall of Fame quarterback? It might be too early to make that proclamation, but Jordan Love looked very comfortable in his first outing as the Week 1 starter. He diced the Bears' defense up for 245 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He did this without their WR1, Christian Watson. Romeo Doubs was limited to less than half of the offensive snaps with a hamstring injury. Aaron Jones was knocked out of the game with a mid-game injury and played just 47 percent of the snaps. Jayden Reed also left the game early. Love wasn't being buoyed by an elite group of pass-catchers (did I hear someone say Brock Purdy's name?), but he was actually elevating the talent around him. He was great at evading pressure, displayed his athleticism and arm talent, and made plenty of anticipatory throws. His passing chart hit every layer of the field. While this outing could have been the product of an abysmal Bears' defense, ignoring the outcome is tough. He immediately becomes a part of the QB steamer discussion as early as this week against the Falcons.
Three Down
WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder completing his first NFL pass this season to himself will make for some fun bar trivia down the road, but it could also be a microcosm of the Falcons' 2023 offense. Arthur Smith's tendencies for leaning on the run game can be traced back to his time as Tennessee's offensive coordinator, but he's taking it to a new level as Atlanta's head coach. Drake London saw just one target, which he missed. Kyle Pitts turned his three targets into two receptions for 44 yards. The play-making abilities of each player are undeniable, but the lack of volume will make both extremely risky starts. Pitts' designation as a tight end puts him in the “say a few Hail Marys before kickoff and hope for the best” tier, along with a dozen other tight ends. But London falls into boom-or-bust WR3 territory. It's hard to imagine much of a ceiling for either player without a big play. Arthur Smith will run his offense through Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier at the expense of the pass-catchers. And given how soft the NFC South is this year, that may be enough to take down the division.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fresh off a hefty offseason contract, Christian Kirk snuck in as a back-end WR1 in fantasy last year. The addition of Calvin Ridley was expected to impact him negatively, but it's much worse than that. Not only did Ridley supplant Kirk's role as the perceived WR1, but Zay Jones appears to have lept him in the pecking order as well, seeing almost identical usage to Ridley, which is the hope we had for Kirk. In addition to Jones' ascension, both Evan Engram and Travis Etienne outpaced Kirk in passing-down snaps and routes run. There's a realistic world where this usage continues, and Kirk finishes the year fifth in targets. Right now, he's being used almost exclusively as a slot receiver who comes in for 3WR sets. His production last year was in the wake of 133 targets, 15th-most among wide receivers. His current role won't allow him to get anywhere near that. His only path to fantasy relevance at this point would require multiple injuries ahead of him or a trade. Outside of deep leagues, he looks like a drop candidate.
RB D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
Rashaad Penny getting scratched in Week 1 appeared to open the door for D'Andre Swift. But Kenneth Gainwell's stranglehold on the running back duties will make that difficult. Gainwell saw 62% of the offensive snaps, leaving just 29% for Swift. Swift saw just one of the team's 25 rushing attempts. His 6.7% target share tied with Quez Watkins' for fourth on the team. He finished the game with just three of the team's 251 total yards. To say he was an afterthought in the offensive plans would be an understatement. Last year, we witnessed Miles Sanders finish as PPR's per-game RB21, and that was with 11 touchdowns. After Jalen Hurts gets his share of the rushes, there isn't much left over for the running backs. With Gainwell being the clear favorite, Swift won't be able to produce much. For now, he's worth a stash for now but doesn't belong near your starting lineup.