Profiles Of Top 10 WRs Outside Top 20 ADPs

Cooper Kupp's 2021 season is a rare target for fantasy players. A record-breaking season from a wide receiver ADP sitting outside the top 12 swung fantasy leagues. To pinpoint the subsequent record-breaking wide receiver breakout is aspirational at best and foolhardy at worst. Looking for underlying factors that lead to the breakout can help identify future success. As they say, "teach a man to fish…".

Over the past ten seasons, Deebo Samuel (WR3 in 2021), Stefon Diggs (WR3 in 2020), Chris Godwin (WR2 in 2019), Odell Beckham (WR1 in 2014), and Josh Gordon (WR1 in 2013) finished within the top three wide receivers after seeing a preseason ADP outside the top-20 receivers. Only five out of thirty potential players return that reward level (Kupp's WR19 ADP misses the cutoff). That 16% rate spread over 12 teams drops the odds even further.

However, targeting the top ten seasons from players outside the Top 20 in ADP gives a much greater chance of hitting a difference-making piece in lineups. 34 out of 100, or a 34% chance over the last decade of landing a WR1 later in drafts. Every year except an anomaly in 2018 has produced multiple of these players. Diving into the previous five shows three clear trends that carry over throughout the past five years:

Rookies

For a good reason, the fantasy football hive mind has treated rookies with caution. The position traditionally required an acclimation period. But with spread offenses trickling into lower levels of football and receivers entering the league from sophisticated college systems, players have been able to produce early. Looking back has shown four players who qualified on ADP and produced immediate breakouts: JaMarr Chase (ADP WR26), Justin Jefferson (49), Michael Thomas (50), and Odell Beckham Jr (72). Three of these players fit similar profiles, Chase, Jefferson, and Beckham were first-round picks who stepped into positions that immediately saw production depart, with A.J. Green's 104 targets, Stefon Diggs 94, and Hakeem Nicks 101 targets. Thomas is an outlier, a second-round pick who immediately made an impact while the team's leading receiver Brandin Cooks remained.

Potential 2022 Qualifiers

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons, ADP WR40

London was the first receiver selected in the draft, 8th overall to the Falcons. London is a polished receiver capable of winning both inside and out. He immediately established himself in practices before a knee injury against the Lions in the first preseason game took him out the rest of the preseason. He steps into a situation that sees Russell Gage's 94 targets depart and another 52 targets from Calvin Ridley out for 2022. The team does have an established alpha receiver with Kyle Pitts, but London's talent will force the team to flow through their top two options.

Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans, ADP WR48

Burks fits the classic success profile as a first-round pick tasked to immediately replicate the 105 targets A.J. Brown's departure removed from the lineup. However, Burks has had a rough start to his career, with questions about conditioning seemingly placing him in coach Mike Vrabel's dog house. Still, there is no denying his physical tools and the Titans' need for a number-one receiver.

Wildcards: Top rookie receivers this year all hold ADPs worth grabbing:

• Garrett Wilson (ADP 53)
• Chris Olave (ADP 45)
• Jahan Dotson (ADP 62)

The Breakouts

Players over the last five years: Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen. These players have followed a more traditional path, starting their careers with modest production before leaping, usually between their second and fourth seasons. It is important to note these players have not traditionally seen significant departures create opportunities, potentially making their breakouts harder to peg. Also important to note, none of these players were drafted in the first round. Instead, in most instances, they grew into dominant pieces of their teams' offense as they developed within their careers.

It is striking how similar the production of all five players was before their ascension: all scored between five and seven touchdowns, and all gained between 593 and 967 yards. Aggregating them creates a picture of production to look for: 103 targets, 67 receptions, 845 yards, and 6.4 touchdowns.

Potential 2022 Qualifiers

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears, ADP WR33

Mooney sits on the high end of the production window, with his 140-81-1,055-4 line closely resembling that of Diontae Johnson's top 10 lines of 144-88-923-7. Mooney has ascended to the clear top target for a Bears offense beset by questions about Justin Fields' development. There is no clear second target within the Bears' receiver room, and if Mooney can handle the attention from defenses, he is a great candidate to crack into the top tier.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, ADP WR29

St. Brown feels like cheating considering he already produced a top-10 season on a per-game basis once he established himself in week four. It is fair to lob criticism, as much of his production came during a lost season. Still, he has already established himself within the Lions' offense, and he is comfortable operating in the area of the field that Jared Goff frequently targets. His line fights nicely within the qualifications: 119-90-912-5.

Wildcards

• Christian Kirk - 5th year - 103-77-982-5 - ADP WR39
• Jakobi Meyers - 4th year - 126-83-866-2 - ADP WR58

We Were Wrong

These players have already produced as top 10 players but faded for environmental factors that proved to be overblown. Concerns about Josh Allen's development held Stefon Diggs back, while Keenan Allen faded after being paired with rookie Justin Herbert.

Potential 2022 Qualifiers

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks, ADP WR21

Metcalf saw his yardage decline from 1,303 to 967, but his touchdowns increased from 10 to 12. The departure of Russell Wilson has pushed him far down boards, and stepping into a scenario with Geno Smith as his quarterback will not instill confidence. But small sample size warning, in four games Smith started, Metcalf's stat line extrapolated out to a 98-81-1,254-21 line. Threatening Randy Moss's NFL record 23 touchdowns would be rather notable, but it still speaks to Smith's ability to get the ball to his receiver. The Seahawks will want to run the ball, but talent level will dictate passing to play catchup.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ADP WR24

With recent news Godwin is running without a knee brace; it is cheating to include him on this list. But fantasy ADP has not caught up. He finished as WR2 overall in 2019 and WR7 in 2021. Godwin saw significant threats to his production depart with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and their replacements, Russell Gage and Julio Jones, likely carry lower ceilings. Exploit this advantage.

Wildcards: Michael Thomas WR26, DeAndre Hopkins WR36, JuJu Smith-Schuster WR28. Environmental factors drive down these players; in Hopkins's case, we know he will miss time. But all three land in fantasy-rich environments with proven track records of production.

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