Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. I like to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | Current (May 15) ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K.J. Hamler | WR | DEN | 180.9 | 17.7 |
| 2 | Jamison Crowder | WR | BUF | 145.4 | 15.4 |
| 3 | Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 165.2 | 15.2 |
| 4 | Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | SF | 179.8 | 14.9 |
| 5 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 135.9 | 14.6 |
| 6 | Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | 149.2 | 14.3 |
| 7 | Robert Tonyan Jr | TE | GB | 135.6 | 11.6 |
| 8 | Tyler Allgeier | RB | ATL | 144.0 | 10.3 |
| 9 | Nyheim Hines | RB | IND | 159.9 | 9.7 |
| 10 | Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | 131.2 | 8.7 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/08/2022-05/15/22***
Now with Best Ball drafts settling in on the rookie landing spots, we are going to see a very tight ADP change over the next few weeks. Player news is also going to be slower over these next few weeks so any news that comes in might drive the price on players up and down more than it probably should. We are seeing the key piece of news this week in Jerry Jeudy getting into some trouble off the field and how quickly the market adjusts as his teammates K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick are both two of the top five ADP risers on the week. Jarvis Landry is another riser as he signed a deal with the New Orleans Saints. We will continue to see his ADP rise as drafters adjust to the trade.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | Current (May 15) ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 161.9 | 16.4 |
| 2 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 182.0 | 12.3 |
| 3 | Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | 135.1 | 11.3 |
| 4 | Gus Edwards | RB | BAL | 167.2 | 9.8 |
| 5 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 170.6 | 9.7 |
| 6 | Odell Beckham | WR | FA | 171.1 | 8.8 |
| 7 | Noah Fant | TE | SEA | 167.6 | 8.8 |
| 8 | Antonio Gibson | RB | WAS | 55.6 | 8.7 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 215.0 | 8.2 |
| 10 | James Robinson | RB | JAX | 149.7 | 8.1 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 05/08/2022-05/15/22***
With tracking the ADP fallers you can find some value in your drafts here. For whatever reason, these players currently have a bad name for the drafting community and with that, they often will continue to fall down in ADP giving you an opportunity to draft them later in your drafts if you like that player. We are only in May right now so player value is changing a lot of times based on people's opinions of an offense and what they expect that player to do in the upcoming season. Best Ball is a game that banking on opinions can really give you an edge in finding values throughout the offseason. News and opinions on players will shift up and down throughout the offseason so you want to make sure you understand why a player's ADP might be falling. This week the top 10 names are sprinkled with good players that can absolutely help your Best Ball team on a week-to-week basis and can be had at a discount. The names on this list that I think we should be looking at are Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Noah Fant, and Antonio Gibson. These four players are being discounted because of personal bias and not for injury or opportunity lost. Players like Mostert, Carter, Edwards, Beckham, Williams, and Robinson make more sense to me on why they are falling as they are getting dinged on the depth chart, have injury concerns, and generally just have more overall questions and concerns focused around them. The dream in Best Ball is to build a perfect lineup in each draft you are in but that is rare and players like Jones, Tannehill, Fant, and Gibson are proven players that can score points for you each week and help give you a shot at advancing in tournaments without having to overpay for them.
Weekly News and Notes
- TE Rob Gronkowski - Remains undecided about whether he will play in 2022
- WR Jarvis Landry - Signs with the Saints
- WR Bryan Edwards - Traded to the Falcons
- WR Jerry Jeudy - Was arrested and later released on bond
- WR Keelan Cole - Signs one-year contract with the LV Raiders
- RB Mike Davis - Signs with the Ravens
- RB Sony Michel - Signs with the Dolphins
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson - Could be used more at Wide Receiver
- WR Michael Thomas - Still having issues with his ankle injury
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 5% full with over 26,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 1,200/55,008 full.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I am going to be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!