Links to similar discussions on other positions:
Getting your running back tiers in order is one of the most important parts of your draft strategy. There’s a smaller margin of error with a steeper dropoff due to position scarcity, so timing your running back picks to coincide with the back half of a tier instead of breaking the seal on one can make a big difference in your roster quality.
ELITE RB1
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Christian McCaffrey, CAR
TARGET AT ADP: Taylor, McCaffrey
Taylor is the safe pick, McCaffrey has a much higher demonstrated ceiling, but two consecutive injury-marred seasons is hard to ignore. It’s fair to say the #1 pick and #2 pick are very close in value this year. Even the #1 and #4 picks are closer in value than they have been lately.
NEARLY ELITE RB1
Austin Ekeler, LAC
TARGET AT ADP: Ekeler
Don’t focus on the abnormally high touchdown total. Just be happy you get a key cog in a great offense in the mid-first.
STRONG RB1
Dalvin Cook, MIN
Joe Mixon, CIN
Derrick Henry, TEN
Najee Harris, PIT
Saquon Barkley, NYG
TARGET AT ADP: Cook, Mixon, Barkley
You’ll be considering this group at the 1/2 turn. How much you like them will determine whether you start RB/RB, WR/WR, or one of each, with you and your leaguemates feelings on Travis Kelce the other variable to consider. Cook tops the list because of the optimism around that offense. He actually had a higher points-per-game average in 2020 than Taylor had last year. Mixon is going to be running behind an improved offensive line. That’s exciting! Henry perhaps deserves to be higher on this list after his last two seasons, but last year felt ominous. Harris will be running behind a poor offensive line and won’t get as many dump-offs, but could be even better than last year in a vacuum. Shrug. Barkley has demonstrated Top 3-5 upside and a competent coaching staff. The running back value in the late first/early second is good, but going RB/RB will preclude you from harvesting later value at the position.
SOLID RB1
Aaron Jones, GB
Leonard Fournette, TB
Alvin Kamara, NO
TARGET AT ADP: Jones, Fournette
This group could easily score like first-round picks, and have in the past. Jones was Aaron Rodgers' favorite receiver when Davante Adams was out. Don’t worry about A.J. Dillon’s increasing role. Fournette arguably belongs with the group above, but the likelihood of him missing time and offensive line issues knocks him down a tier. The Saints love the idea of the Ingram/Kamara tandem backfield, but if Ingram is dust, then Kamara should be higher with the threat of a suspension probably pushed off to 2023.
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