Welcome to Week 10 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Playoff Prep (see below)
- Faith Or Fear?
- Go Big Or Go Home?
- Rebound or Refried?
Playoff Prep
Matt Waldman: We're getting close to the fantasy postseason. While bye weeks are forcing many teams to work with one-week rentals at specific spots to keep their teams in contention, there are squads that have reasonable expectations to earn a playoff spot.
There are players like Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, Deshaun Watson, and Kadarius Toney who offer a lot of promise but also significant fantasy downside due to rust, lack of rapport with teammates, age/injury history, and new systems.
When it comes to high-upside players with big names and the promise of a big game that accompanies their brand/talent/potential but significant risks...
- What scenarios do you recommend a team take a chance on players like this?
- What factors are important to consider these types over a valuable backup of proven skill who could earn starter touches if a team rests the primary option (think Samaje Perine starting for Joe Mixon)?
- When do you recommend reserves with potential starter touches -- regardless of past track record -- over the big names with unknowns about their play?
I'm not asking you to profile Beckham, Watson, and Toney, but if you find it's helpful to use them or another set of players as examples to answer the three questions, that's fine.
Chad Parsons: My general approach late in the season for a contending team is to consider the high-end outcomes. This is centered primarily on backup running backs and quarterbacks (in premium formats).
The mindset is two-fold. First, infuse my lineup with an auto-start type player previously from my bench. Secondly, the backup who benefits from injury also takes away the starter (now out) from my competition.
The complete unknown of Odell Beckham and, say, Will Fuller, who has been away from the game for a stretch, is not all that appealing later in the season. They need the perfect storm of their own health, signing to a quality situation, staying healthy as they ramp up to game action, and producing enough to actually matter in a late-season lineup.
When the Deshaun Watson suspension announcement came, I mentally wrote off the season as Watson would have a small window to knock off the rust and instill confidence for fantasy lineups 1-2-3 weeks later. Watson could easily be the best available QB2 in premium formats with injuries and Watson showing enough in his initial start or two.
Jason Wood: It all starts with an honest assessment of your standing among playoff hopefuls. If you're fortunate to have a playoff spot locked up, then you should be looking ahead to the playoff weeks and pre-emptively targeting players that could win you the league, either by giving you an edge or keeping another playoff team from capitalizing on them. We now have enough data on team defenses to value 2022 over 2021, so looking ahead to advantageous defensive matchups can be a low-key way of optimizing your championship hopes.
Generally, as we get later in the season and bye weeks funnel through, you need to start worrying about your starting lineup and less about depth.
Consider running back and wide receiver hedges that you know will be stars if an injury arises. Worry less about having people you can plug in for 8-10 points and have your bench filled with players who may be averaging almost nothing now but are 15-20 point producers if the dominoes fall into place.
On the other hand, if you're white-knuckling your way into a bottom-rung playoff spot, I recommend continuing to churn your roster in hopes of squeaking out a few more points each week because that literally could be the difference between a playoff berth or not.
Phil Alexander: If you are currently in playoff position, your bench should be full of high-ceiling/low-floor types. I would argue Beckham (coming back from an injury and on a new team) and Julio Jones (oft-injured and playing limited snaps) don't qualify, but Toney is the perfect example. A player with his big-play skillset and offensive setup will project better than the worst wide receiver or flex player in your starting lineup if he continues to build on last week's mini-breakout over the next few games. And even if you think Toney will never sniff your starting lineup, you don't want to chance him becoming a league-winner on your opponent's roster.
Youth, athleticism, and proven efficiency on limited touches are some data points I'm looking at when evaluating high-upside bench stashes. A run-of-the-mill backup who could earn starter touches if their team rests the primary option, like Samaje Perine, possesses none of those traits. If Perine plays in place of Joe Mixon, we'd likely project him for 65% of Mixon's counting stats. If we're comparing (someone like) Toney to (someone like) Perine, who sounds more likely to win your league -- 65% of Joe Mixon or the potential WR1 for Patrick Mahomes II?
Waldman: I agree in principle, Phil, but I may disagree with the application. There are many leagues where having a backup running back to a high-upside receiver is more important because you may have to fill that starting spot with a runner as opposed to flexing the best available player. If all things are equal, Toney is the easy upside choice. If the league isn't a flex-heavy format, a reserve back to your starter might be vital.
Justin Jackson was the No.1 running back in Week 16 last year, scoring 36.2 fantasy points. He wasn't the anomaly:
- Rex Burkhead was No.3 with 28.9 points.
- Chase Edmonds was No.6 with 26.7 points.
- Sony Michel was No.8 with 20.5 points.
- Ronald Jones II was No.12. with 16.1 points.
- Alexander Mattison was No.14 with 16 points.
- Dare Ogunbowale...DARE OGUNBOWALE...was No.15 with 15.2 points.
- Jeff Wilson was No.16 with 14.7 points.
- Derrick Gore was No.20 with 13.4 points.
- Darrel Williams was No.23 with 11.5 points
Almost half of the fantasy RB1-RB2 performers in Week 16 were backups! I have won and lost too many leagues because I wrote off the value of backups in certain, if not all, formats.
Sean Settle: Your strategy should depend on where you sit in the playoff rankings. If you are lucky enough to have a spot locked up, you should look ahead to potential playoff matchups and think about future lineups. We are far enough into the 2022 season that we can use defensive data to better predict what is going to happen than last year. Stashing a player with a top-5 matchup in the future may help you win the league rather than trying to grab the biggest current week waiver wire player.
With bye weeks starting to wind down, it is easy to focus on your main lineup. Your bench should consist of key player backups in case of injury or a prominent player sitting at the end of the season because, as Matt illustrated above, there's legitimate value there. For example, if you have Dalvin Cook, it is a good idea to snag Mattison. Cook has sustained injuries and missed time each season, and the Vikings currently have a record that may call for resting starters at the end of the year. Once you can focus on your top lineup each week, having a backup plan for injuries and resting starters can be key for playoff runs.
Clearly, you can't predict how many reserves will perform well, and last year's example of runners won't always repeat itself in the number of producers available, but it's worth nabbing backup runners in good rushing offenses with proven production, even in isolated weeks.
Scott Bischoff: If my team is needing to win games, I am adding players that can help right now, as the luxury of looking ahead to the playoff weeks doesn’t apply. If your team is in a good position, then taking a forward-looking approach is a smart move. Trim the fat off your roster and add players that can win you games instead of giving you reasonable levels of production.
Adam Wilde: When you've got a playoff spot essentially locked up is when you start looking to players like Beckham Jr. to give a potential playoff boost. If you need production to try to get to the playoffs, you likely aren't in a position to burn a roster spot for future positioning.
It is important to consider what offense we're investing in if we're going after these backs that could potentially get a boost in opportunity. A good example would be the Chiefs' backfield. In some leagues, you may see all three backs on waivers soon as none of them have proven to be viable starters. This isn't a backfield we would target. On the other hand, Rachaad White would be a great target, as we know we can get value from the Tampa Bay backfield.
There are some situations where holding onto a "starter" in a particular offense is not worth passing up on an upside player. A prime example would be White, who is trending in the right direction to win leagues if he takes over the Tampa Bay backfield at some point.
Waldman: If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!