Welcome to Week 9 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Zach Wilson's Future (see below)
- For Real-Fool's Gold
- Second-Half Slump Candidates
- Wounded Wide Outs
Zach Wilson's Future
Matt Waldman: Is he going to emerge as a viable starter in the NFL?
Jeff Haseley: The eye test on Zach Wilson suggests that he won't be starting in the league for long based on how he is playing while not seeing a big enough improvement. Fantasy numbers aside, he is 7-11 in his career as a starter with a 55.4 completion percentage to go with 12 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
I expected more from him in his second year, especially with the talent on offense the Jets have, Breece Hall injury notwithstanding. From a fantasy perspective, Wilson has three top 12 weeks in 18 games as a starter. There are similar statistical numbers that mirror that -- they aren't starters anymore. Wilson's 4-1 record this year is saving him, for now, but are the Jets winning because of him? Either way, it appears as if the Jets are all-in on Wilson. They will either rise or fall with him under center, for this season, at least.
Andy Hicks: I want this to work out for Jets fans, but I have yet to see evidence that he can be a competent starter, let alone a good one. Fantasy or otherwise. I would love to read a good argument that he is on track to be the future of the franchise and lead the Jets to the playoffs.
Legendary head coach Bill Walsh believed we know what we are dealing with after 20 starts for a quarterback. Wilson has 18. I don’t think we are going to see much of a change in the next two starts.
Waldman: It's worth unpacking that 20-start figure. From a scouting/organizational perspective, NFL teams don't begin implementing information from scouting reports of rookie quarterbacks into game plans until they have several weeks of tape on the player. They stick with their base defensive packages until they think they have enough to begin implementing tweaks to their defense that the quarterback has shown difficulty handling.
We have to remember that every opponent has different strengths and weaknesses with defensive personnel and scheme, and not everything scouts see as a potentially exploitable flaw is something that matches up with what their defense may execute effectively to stop the quarterback. It's also common sense that a defense isn't going to re-tool its entire game plan during the season to stop a rookie quarterback based on a small sample size of information that may or may not constitute a pattern of behavior.
Each team picks its spots to test the young passers during the middle and final phases of the regular season, and future opponents continue gathering information from the film with each team until the league forms a book on the quarterback. We begin to see defenses implement this growing book on the quarterback during this time. By the quarterback's second season (given that they are in the same offense and remained healthy), opponents are now testing that quarterback with concepts where they have seen him struggle. If the quarterback doesn't show that they can develop to overcome enough of these challenges, his future as a starter dims.
With all of this in mind, there's a simple way of remembering this: When rookies enter the league, the early games versus their opponents' base schemes are a test to see if they can perform the way they looked at their best in college. Once the opposing defenses implement the information they've gathered from those initial games, it's up to the quarterback to prove that they can be better than what they were in college.
The best quarterbacks continue evolving to a point that most defenses don't match up perfectly against them and those defenses require a combination of scheme and personnel to foil the quarterback. Solid second-year quarterbacks with at least decade-long tenures may need more offensive talent to lead a playoff-caliber contender and may not consistently deliver annual production commensurate with Pro Bowl berths. One-contract starters tend to struggle when defenses throw the book at them and never grow beyond what they did well in school.
Wilson is performing like the flawed version of his game when his game was at its worst on tape.
Hicks: For sure, Matt. A simple watch of the Patriots matchup saw two of the most awful interceptions you would ever see. This was an opportunity for the Jets to finally play New England with an advantage and the ill-timed passes that should have been thrown away went straight to the Patriots' defense.
There have been glimpses that let us see why he was drafted at the number two position, but with only four games over 250 passing yards and none with a three-touchdown passing performance, it is hard to get excited. His low completion rate and high interception rate make it hard to see the impatient Jets give him further development time. He has been given highly drafted receivers in both years and former high draft Corey Davis was added in free agency. The Jets have given him the chance to succeed but probably picked the wrong guy. Hopefully, someone can see a better future than I can.
Ryan Weisse: Putting it bluntly, I don't think he will be a viable starter or even have a job for much longer due to turnovers. Wilson has thrown 16 interceptions in 17 NFL starts. If you throw in the one fumble he lost in 2021, he is averaging one turnover per game for his career. When we think of recent quarterbacks with turnover issues, we think of guys like Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones.
Not many would argue that Winston is a viable starter, but he has lost his job repeatedly. Jones' situation was murkier heading into 2022, but he appears to have turned things around in Year 4. The difference between those two and Zach Wilson is the most crucial quarterback stat: touchdowns. Winston scored 57 over his first two seasons against 33 interceptions. Jones was at 22 interceptions through two years but scored 38 touchdowns. Wilson sits at just 16 touchdowns scored in those same 17 starts. For coaches to accept the bad, there needs to be some good, and Zach Wilson isn't showing that right now. If he doesn't soon, the Jets will move on.
Ben Cummins: No. Zach Wilson never should’ve been the No.2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. His collegiate tape consistently showed clean pockets and wide-open receivers, foreshadowing a rough transition to the NFL. Wilson possesses elite arm talent, so I don’t blame the Jets for being patient with his development. Unfortunately for them, the quarterback position requires many other strengths than just arm talent.
After a bad rookie season, Wilson hasn’t shown enough improvement in year two. He has thrown just three touchdowns compared to five interceptions and ranks sixth in interception percentage (3.5). Wilson has not proven he can play within structure inside of the pocket and is making horrendous decisions when throwing outside of the pocket, which is supposed to be when he’s at his best.
Waldman: I agree, Ben. I had Wilson rated sixth behind the likes of Lawrence, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Davis Mills. SB Nation's lead NFL writer and former Footballguys contributor Mark Schofield and I did a YouTube film breakdown of Wilson's pre-draft skills. Those that want to see why I was not on board with Wilson as a top prospect can watch here.
Chad Parsons: I cannot get on board with Zach Wilson. One of the key metrics I track and trends very closely to who is good, who is bad, and, important in this case, who is at risk of losing their starting job is TD-INT Rate Ratio. In short, it looks at touchdowns per completion and interception per incompletion in a ratio. The NFL oscillates in the 1.00-1.15 zone per season. Dropping below 1.00, and especially 0.80, puts a quarterback in jeopardy of losing their job, especially without a strong long-term profile of starting. Wilson is at 0.60 for his career and 0.49 in 2022. These are horrific numbers, even for a quarterback during his first two seasons. His high moments of a poor man's Patrick Mahomes II are washed over ten-fold by the overwhelming bad moments, habits, and decisions.
Sam Wagman: From what we have seen over the past 1.5 seasons from Wilson, I'm just not sure that I can get behind him becoming a viable starter in the league. The talent is there for sure. That isn't the question. It's the very bad decision-making that he shows on a near-weekly basis that could do him in.
Wilson routinely throws into bad windows and double coverage when he doesn't have to. He tries to make miracles happen when he should throw the ball away or tuck it and run.
Gary Davenport: Sadly, you're going to have to put me down for a "no" on this one. In his defense, I wouldn't bet the kids' college fund on Trevor Lawrence being one, either, at this point. The Jets went and got Wilson passing-game weapons and upgraded the offensive line.
But while the latter has admittedly been hit by injuries, the Jets have been winning in spite of Wilson, not because of him. He just doesn't appear able to go through his progressions, find the open guy and deliver a reasonably accurate pass.
And those interceptions last week—my goodness. You can't make those sorts of awful decisions with the ball in the NFL. You just can't. But Wilson keeps doing it anyway.
Waldman: If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!