This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs MIN) vs Chandon Sullivan
Minnesota continues to play a bend but do not break style of defense. They are currently allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and have been plagued with injuries and ineffective play in recent weeks. Cameron Dantzler was recently placed on the IR and Akayleb Evans suffered a concussion last week and could see second-round rookie Andrew Booth playing this week. Lamb is a solid bet to rack up catches and yards out of the slot as he will play away from Patrick Peterson the entire game. Peterson is the only piece of this secondary that has played well so far this year and the entire Dallas receiving group can be upgraded this week.
WR Rondale Moore (ARZ vs SF) vs Jimmie Ward
The 49ers' defense as a whole has played well this year, but their main weakness has been the slot. They are currently allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers and Arizona is one the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. There is still some injury concern with Kyler Murray, but this offense was able to beat a short-handed Rams team last week. DeAndre Hopkins will continue to be the focal point, but Moore should see plenty of opportunity from the slot this week and is a solid FLEX or sleeper play this week in DFS.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs LV) vs Sam Webb
The last time these teams met, Sutton had 5 catches for 52 yards and his only touchdown of the season. A lot has changed for both teams since this happened, but most notable is the loss of Jerry Jeudy for the Broncos. This will give Sutton an injection of new targets that should come against undrafted rookie Webb. Anthony Averett was benched due to poor play, and the Raiders team is spiraling right now. This is a great week for Denver to try and get the offense back on track with Sutton as the focal point.
WR Devin Duvernay (BAL vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
The passing situation in Baltimore is always tough to predict. Mark Andrews is the favorite option and has got a limited practice in on Wednesday this week. However, the Panthers have been awful against perimeter receivers over the past month, allowing the third-most points. They lost their top perimeter corner for the season last week when Donte Jackson tore his Achilles. It can be hard to trust the Ravens’ receivers, but Duvernay has the best matchup this week and should warrant FLEX consideration or a deep sleeper play in DFS.
WR Darnell Mooney (CHI vs ATL) vs Isaiah Oliver
The rise of Justin Fields should continue this week, as the Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season. Mooney lines up all over the field and should see a mixture of all of the corners. Chase Claypool has not been fully integrated into the offense yet and ran just five routes last week against the Lions. Fields has started to spread the ball more than earlier in the season, but Mooney remains one of his favorite targets. The plan has always been to get Claypool more involved, but until that happens, Mooney is the best option in the offense catching the ball.
WR Van Jefferson (LAR vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
The loss of Cooper Kupp is going to be tough to fill. However, those 10 targets and 90+ yards per game will have to be spread amongst other players. Jefferson has been eased back into a starting role since returning from injury but looks healthy and ready to soak up targets. He was efficient in a reduced role last week and found the end zone with Kupp still on the field. This week he should line up against Adebo for the majority of snaps, and that has been a weak spot for this defense. Adebo is allowing 0.62 fantasy points per coverage snap. The return of Marshon Lattimore would change the dynamic of this defense, but that is not expected to happen this week.
TE George Kittle (SF vs ARZ)
Kittle had a very disappointing showing last week, with just 3.1 fantasy points. His value has dropped this season, but he still has a high ceiling in this offense and had 12+ points in three straight weeks before last week. Arizona is allowing the most points, receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing tight ends. It is not even close. This is a great week for Kittle to get back on track in what has become the best matchup for tight ends in the NFL.
TE Dalton Schultz (DAL vs MIN)
Schultz has been a different player with Dak Prescott back in the lineup. He had 17 fantasy points last week. In the 4 weeks that Prescott has played, Schultz has a low of 9.9 fantasy points. Any player that has a floor of near double-digit fantasy points is worth playing. The Vikings' secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and allows points to everyone not being covered by Patrick Peterson. Start Schultz for the rest of the season without hesitation if Prescott is starting.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Davante Adams (LV vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain
Adams has been finding success in recent weeks despite tough coverage. However, this week he will take on Surtain, who has followed DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, and Christian Kirk in recent weeks and has sustained success. When these teams first met, Surtain held Adams to 54 yards on 9 targets when in primary coverage. Adams finished the day with 9 catches for 101 yards, but Surtain more than did his part to limit the star receiver. The Broncos defense lost some pieces at the trade deadline, but Surtain on Adams will be a great matchup this week. Adams is never a bench candidate, but tempering our expectations this week would be smart.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs IND) vs Stephon Gilmore
Brown is coming off his worst performance of the season, with just a single catch for seven yards in a loss to the Commanders last week. Things do not get any easier against an Indianapolis secondary that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Gilmore has shadowed in perimeter situations so far this year and has done well against Travis Kelce, Courtland Sutton, and Davante Adams. It is not a lock that he will follow, but historic trends will have these two lineup across from one another a lot this week. Brown currently has a questionable tag and is dealing with nagging injuries. He is still the star of this receiving group but should be downgraded slightly this week in a tougher-than-usual matchup.
WR Curtis Samuel (WAS vs HOU) vs Desmond King
King has been one of the best slot corners in the NFL so far this year, and Samuel’s performance has been sporadic at best. Houston has been behind in the majority of their games this season and has seen the least passing volume of any defense. This game should be closer than many of their others and could come with a higher volume of targets. Samuel has had an up-and-down season and has not been a focal point in this offense. His value came from early season touchdowns, and that has all but disappeared late in the season. This may be a competitive game this week, but there are not many players worth starting in this matchup.
WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs NE) vs Jalen Mills
The Patriots up and down season has more to do with poor offensive production rather than defensive performance. This secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and continues to keep their team in the game week in and week out. Wilson has become a favorite target of Zach Wilson, and this offense has played better in recent weeks. However, the Patriots have historically had the Jets' number, and this is a matchup to try and avoid if at all possible.
WR Isaiah McKenzie (BUF vs CLE) vs Greg Newsome
The weather predicted for this matchup alone is enough to try and avoid most players in this game. However, McKenzie also draws the toughest matchup against Newsome in the slot. Newsome has been one of the best cover corners in the slot this year and is allowing just .029 fantasy points per coverage snap. Buffalo also has so many offensive weapons that McKenzie can get lost in the shuffle. Between the weather and the tough matchup, McKenzie is someone to avoid this week.
WR DeVante Parker (NE vs NYJ) vs Ahmad Gardner
The Jets defense has been playing extremely well over the past month and has been bolstered by rookie Gardner. They have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and have been downright dominant against perimeter receivers. Parker lines up outside a little over 90% of the time and will see a lot of Gardner this week. When these teams last met, Jakobi Meyers had a big game, but no other receiver topped 13 yards. Look for another close matchup this week and avoid any receiver playing on the perimeter against the Jets.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs NO)
Higbee had a big game against the Cardinals last week, like most tight ends have all season. This week the script flips to the other end of the spectrum and Higbee has one of the toughest. The Saints are allowing just 7 fantasy points per game to tight ends and have allowed a single touchdown through 10 weeks. With Cooper Kupp out, teams can focus more attention on Higbee and try to limit his targets. This is a tough matchup you should avoid if possible.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF vs CLE)
Knox has a tough week all around. The weather is predicted to be miserable; the Browns are allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and he has scored double-digit fantasy points just once through 10 games. Knox has a very low floor and has not reached his high ceiling from last year. Avoid Knox and most participants in this game at all costs this week.