Box Safety Busts
The Raiders made safety Johnathan Abram their third and final first-round pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. Abram collected 99 tackles, including 9 for loss and 3.0 quarterback sacks in his senior season at Mississippi State. He profiled as an NFL box safety, expected to start and contribute immediately.
Abram played the majority of his snaps in the box last season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Raiders cut him earlier this season. He finds himself on his third team in 2022.
Abram led the league’s safeties in the proportion of snaps played in the box in 2021. Landon Collins, second on the above list, resides on the Giants’ practice squad. The third player, Kyle Dugger, occupies a similar role this year as last. He remains a part-time player in his third season in New England.
The next five players on PFF’s list are all playing more diverse roles in 2022 than in 2021. Safeties across the league are seeing fewer snaps in the box this season. As presented in Week 8’s edition of Reading the Defense, the use of two-high safety sets is up sharply year over year. As each of the two safeties is high, neither appears in the box – among the linebackers in the defense’s second level. Washington’s Kamren Curl is the only full-time safety playing at least half his snaps in the box through 13 weeks.
As Jon Macri notes in his tweet, box snaps matter for tackle production. The run game is a much larger piece of NFL offenses in 2022, a development covered in Reading the Defense, Week 11. Despite this, fantasy gamers’ safety units are reaping few rewards. The numbers on the fantasy leaderboard for the position look substantially similar to those of recent years.
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Fantasy safeties’ inability to capitalize on the run game is not limited to teams that prefer two-high coverages. Some one-high defenses like Tennessee alternate their safeties in the deep alignment.
John Owning on Twitter Re-signing Jayron Kearse was key for the #Cowboys this offseason. His ability to impact the run game from multiple alignments, cover TEs, poach crossers & be a reliable tackler were key for Dan Quinn's D. JK's versatility allows DAL to do a lot of different things defensively. pic.twitter.com/a1KUMnuUy6— John Owning (@JohnOwning) May 17, 2022 Twitter
Dallas, a predominantly one-high defense, regularly deploys three safeties and rotates them through the box, slot, and deep alignments. Donovan Wilson has played in the box slightly more than Jayron Kearse and has thus collected tackles at a slightly higher rate per snap, 11.1 percent to 10.6 percent. Both players are blitzing roughly twice per game per Pro-Football-Reference.com. On the strength of 4.0 quarterback sacks, Wilson ranks tenth in fantasy points per game played.
Kearse was hurt earlier this season and missed three games. He has played more snaps than Wilson in every game since Week 8. The fantasy gamer planning to rely on Donovan Wilson throughout the fantasy playoffs is betting that a blackjack winning streak on hands of 18 continues.
Face Cards in the Deck
Largely devoid of traditional box safeties, the fantasy leaderboard for the position includes an assortment of player types and production patterns. The top scorer in fantasy points per game, Marcus Williams had two huge games including three interceptions early in the season but has been injured since Week 5. All-Pro Derwin James leads all safeties in combined tackles and fantasy points by a comfortable margin.
The following table constitutes the Footballguys fantasy leaderboard of safeties with several adjustments for illustrative purposes. Importantly, “Games” in this table means games played whereas “G” in Footballguys Historical Player Stats means games in which the safety was on the roster.
Key
- TKL: Combined tackles
- SOLO: Solo tackles
- ASSIST: Assisted tackles
- P/G-TKL: Fantasy points per game from tackles
- FF: Forced fumbles
- FR: Fumble recoveries
- PD: Passes defensed
- INT: Interceptions
- P/G-BP: Fantasy points per game from big plays (Sacks, FF, FR, PD, & INT)
- TD: Touchdowns
- FANT PT: Total fantasy points
- FP/G: Fantasy points per game played
Table 1: Fantasy Points per Game by Safety
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | Games | Tkls | Solos | Assists | P/G-Tkl | Sacks | FFs | FRs | PDs | INTs | P/G-BPs | TDs | FanPnts | FPs/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus Williams | BAL | 26 | 5 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5.3 | 0 | 70.8 | 14.2 |
| 2 | Derwin James | LAC | 26 | 12 | 106 | 61 | 45 | 10.4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | 0 | 160.2 | 13.4 |
| 3 | Harrison Smith | MIN | 33 | 11 | 73 | 58 | 15 | 8.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 4.0 | 0 | 142.2 | 12.9 |
| 4 | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | PHI | 25 | 11 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 7.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 4.2 | 0 | 132.2 | 12.0 |
| 5 | Eddie Jackson | CHI | 29 | 12 | 80 | 59 | 21 | 8.7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 3.1 | 0 | 141.2 | 11.8 |
| 6 | Jalen Pitre | HOU | 23 | 12 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 9.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.4 | 0 | 140.8 | 11.7 |
| 7 | Julian Love | NYG | 24 | 12 | 88 | 59 | 29 | 9.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 138.2 | 11.5 |
| 8 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | PIT | 26 | 10 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 3.2 | 1 | 113.8 | 11.4 |
| 9 | Jaquan Brisker | CHI | 23 | 11 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 8.6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 0 | 121 | 11.0 |
| 10 | Donovan Wilson | DAL | 25 | 12 | 78 | 60 | 18 | 8.6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | 0 | 131.5 | 11.0 |
| 11 | Talanoa Hufanga | SF | 22 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 7.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3.2 | 1 | 130 | 10.8 |
| 12 | DeShon Elliott | DET | 25 | 11 | 78 | 58 | 20 | 9.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 118 | 10.7 |
| 13 | Justin Simmons | DEN | 29 | 7 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 6.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4.1 | 0 | 74.8 | 10.7 |
| 14 | Budda Baker | ARI | 26 | 12 | 90 | 61 | 29 | 9.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.3 | 0 | 128.2 | 10.7 |
| 15 | Jordan Poyer | BUF | 31 | 8 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 84.5 | 10.6 |
| 16 | Jonathan Owens | HOU | 27 | 12 | 97 | 66 | 31 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 125.2 | 10.4 |
| 17 | Antoine Winfield | TB | 24 | 9 | 51 | 42 | 9 | 7.8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 93.8 | 10.4 |
| 18 | Brandon Jones | MIA | 24 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 8.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | 72.8 | 10.4 |
| 19 | Mike Edwards | TB | 26 | 10 | 64 | 38 | 26 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | 1 | 101 | 10.1 |
| 20 | Andre Cisco | JAX | 22 | 11 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2.6 | 1 | 108 | 9.8 |
| 21 | Richie Grant | ATL | 25 | 13 | 90 | 49 | 41 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 124.8 | 9.6 |
| 22 | Rayshawn Jenkins | JAX | 28 | 12 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 7.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.2 | 0 | 114.2 | 9.5 |
| 23 | Jevon Holland | MIA | 22 | 12 | 63 | 51 | 12 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 113 | 9.4 |
| 24 | Kamren Curl | WAS | 23 | 11 | 77 | 55 | 22 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 103 | 9.4 |
| 25 | Jayron Kearse | DAL | 28 | 9 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 7.7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | 0 | 84 | 9.3 |
In addition to Marcus Williams, who is expected to return to action in Week 14, four players have scored at least four fantasy points per game through big plays. Three of these players are multi-year Pro-Bowlers: Harrison Smith, Justin Simmons, and Jordan Poyer. These players’ quarterback sacks, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, passes defensed, and interceptions – collectively, big plays – fuel their appearances among the top 25 fantasy safeties.
The fourth player producing big plays, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, was having a Pro-Bowl-caliber season before a serious injury in Week 12. The Eagle was also the safety most frequently targeted by opposing quarterbacks (50) before his injury. The number of passes coming his way under the duress of Philadelphia’s pass rush contributed to the league-leading six interceptions Gardner-Johnson collected.
Only six players are compiling fantasy points through tackles at a rate higher than Kamren Curl. Fantasy stalwart Budda Baker is one of them. The Cardinal easily leads the league’s safeties with 44 blitzes, according to Advanced Defensive Stats at Pro-Football-Reference.com. Unfortunately, none of those attempts has resulted in a quarterback sack. He’s due for a breakout game that could vault him into the top five on the fantasy leaderboard at his position.
The Problem with Safeties
Baker’s 2022 season indicates the problem with safeties. Their game-to-game output is so sporadic that one big game makes the difference between a SAF1 and a replacement player.
Minkah Fitzpatrick played 100 snaps in an overtime victory over the Bengals in the opener. He made 14 tackles and returned an interception for a touchdown. His performance yielded 30.5 fantasy points. Without that game, Fitzpatrick would rank outside the top 24 fantasy safeties.
Similarly, Justin Simmons forced three turnovers versus the Ravens in Week 13. Before that, he ranked outside the top 50 safeties in fantasy points per game played. The enormous swings, long droughts, and thin margins at the position should leave fantasy gamers wanting.
Broncos Country on Twitter Justin Simmons read the play perfectly and gets the INT 🙌pic.twitter.com/CC8vSJZ588— Broncos Country (@BroncoCountryCP) December 4, 2022 Twitter
The Fix
The good news is that a longstanding resource offers newfound value in the landscape of interchangeable safeties. The Footballguys Custom Strength-of-Schedule tool reports the number of fantasy points per game the team has given up against safeties compared to the number of points per game that the team's opponents have scored in their other games.
Historically, tools like this provided inadequate insight into safety production because box safeties are not differentiated from deep safeties. In 2022, the interchangeability of safeties makes tools like the Custom SOS tool, which aggregates all safeties, more relevant.
Safeties are scoring, on average, 5.4 more fantasy points per game versus Baltimore than against the rest of their opponents. No one could have predicted that Justin Simmons would force three turnovers in Baltimore, but the Footballguys Custom SOS tool suggested that Simmons was a good start for fantasy gamers.
Starting safeties facing the Ravens are averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game in 2022. This total is nearly identical to Simmons’s average output for the season. The average top-scoring safety facing the Ravens each week has yielded 13.9 fantasy points per game, more than Derwin James.
The average starting safety facing the Cowboys has scored 11.6 fantasy points per game through 13 weeks. The top-scoring safety of each Dallas opponent averages 13.8 points per game.
The Ravens and Cowboys are fueling opposing fantasy safety production at rates of 5.4 and 4.7 points, respectively, above their averages against other teams, according to the Footballguys Custom SOS tool. Safeties are collectively averaging more than three points per game above their averages versus four more opponents – the Cardinals, Jets, Colts, and Chiefs.
In contrast, six NFL offenses are holding opposing safeties to fantasy totals that average more than three points per game lower than their averages against other opponents. The takeaway is that opponents explain a large proportion of the disparity between high- and low-scoring safeties each week. The spread between Baltimore and Atlanta in the Custom SOS tool is 9.7 points. For teams with two full-time safeties, that’s 4.85 points per player. 4.85 points is roughly the spread between 12th- and 69th-ranked safeties in points per game.
Playing with House Money
Aces Derwin James, Harrison Smith, and Budda Baker just might be the only safeties that truly matter in their own right. The rest are more or less products or prisoners of situation and opportunity. Jordan Poyer and Justin Simmons have had frighteningly low floors as tacklers in 2022. Donovan Wilson and the two Texans on the leaderboard are playing part-time. DeShon Elliott has been benched once this season. Julian Love’s tackle numbers are solid in Wink Martindale’s dated scheme, but Love’s Week-15 match-up with Washington suggests a big downside. The fourth and fifth-ranked safeties in fantasy points per game, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Eddie Jackson, are lost to injury.
Fantasy gamers facing long odds down the stretch might do well to stream safeties rather than suffer disadvantageous match-ups. For that reason, the safety position is devolving into a weekly exercise resembling cornerback deployment. Few would consider any cornerback a locked-in starter outside of 2022’s top five scorers at the position (LJarius Sneed, Tariq Woolen, Jalen Ramsey, Rasul Douglas, and Marlon Humphrey).
The Ravens’ opponents in the fantasy playoffs are Cleveland, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. The Cowboys will face Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Tennessee in Weeks 15-17. SAF2s and SAF3s like Richie Grant, Andre Cisco, Rayshawn Jenkins, Kevin Byard, and Grant Delpit might be available in shallow leagues. They have a clear, high SAF1 upside in upcoming match-ups versus Baltimore and Dallas.
For deeper leagues, Week-15 options include Kareem Jackson versus Arizona, Kerby Joseph at the Jets, and Camryn Bynum versus Indianapolis. In Week 16, deep-leaguers should consider Jaylinn Hawkins at Baltimore, Reed Blankenship at Dallas, and Mike Edwards at Arizona.
Terrell Edmunds, who faces the Ravens in both Week 14 and Week 17, will be a test for this strategy. He’s been one of the lowest-scoring full-time safeties in the league this year. His average of 5.75 fantasy points per game is the lowest of his career. The Custom SOS tool implies an upside of 8.45 points for Edmunds versus Baltimore in Week 14. That number is roughly equivalent to the average points per game of 36th-ranked safety on the season. Fantasy gamers playing for a championship in Week 17 should revisit the tool to set line-ups for optimal safety match-ups.
Cameron Blackburn on Twitter Terrific play from Terrell Edmunds: hesitated just long enough to get the RT to look off then came downhill and made a play. Give the man an extension. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/z3YXlZsJqu— Cameron Blackburn (@CamBlurn) October 18, 2022 Twitter
Takeaways
Donovan Wilson has just one plus match-up remaining on his schedule. Another SAF1 to date, Talanoa Hufanga, has none. Gamers in big-play formats will hope the formidable defenses of Dallas and San Francisco continue to fuel these safeties’ production with sacks and takeaways. The aforementioned players with plus match-ups like Byard, Delpit, and the Jaguars are good bets to outproduce the players presently ranked above them in tackle-heavy leagues. If afterthoughts like Hawkins, Blankenship, Edwards, and Edmunds outproduce Wilson and Hufanga as match-ups dictate, fantasy gamers and content creators alike need to ask if safety has become the new cornerback for IDP fantasy football.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.