In the 20th century, offensive coordinators faced an imperative to call an equal number of run plays and pass plays. The logic was that a one-dimensional offense made the defense’s task too easy. An offense that could threaten opposing defenses on the ground and through the air could come from behind when necessary and grind out the clock while ahead on the scoreboard.
In 2021, every team ran more pass plays than run plays. Nine teams ran the ball in fewer than 40 percent of their offensive plays from scrimmage, according to the pro sports data website TeamRankings.com.
Through Week 10 of 2022, five teams have run the ball more than they’ve passed. The last season in which that many teams called more run plays than pass plays was 2008. Fourteen teams, meanwhile, have passed in 60 percent of their plays.
The notable jump in pass-heavy teams correlates to the spike in the deployment of two-deep shells discussed in recent editions of this column. While defensive coordinators have preferences in scheme and personnel, they must first respond to the personnel and attack of opposing offenses.
Offenses’ pass-heavy approach has bred defenses highly focused on pass coverages. Defensive coordinators, including but not limited to disciples of Vic Fangio, devote meager resources to run defense with a goal merely of limiting damage incurred rather than stifling opposing rushing attacks altogether.
The Cowboys under Dan Quinn, for example, run nickel and dime defenses nearly to the exclusion of 4-3 base sets and further run pass-rush stunts at a league-high rate. Their frequent stunting can soften the front against the run.
In Week 10, two more teams deployed three safeties nearly full-time. The Packers and Commanders each omitted the third cornerback from a significant role in search of personnel groupings effective against the pass and adequate versus the run. While both franchises incurred recent roster changes that catalyzed these moves, both evolved units delivered results on the field.
Running Games Roar Back to Life
In their most recent outings, thirteen teams ran the ball more often than they passed. Several of these thirteen demonstrated stark contrasts to their game-planning to date. The Packers and Commanders were two of several teams that significantly ratcheted up their running games. The Buccaneers, Colts, Jets, Bengals, and Steelers joined them as pass-heavy teams (57% or more pass plays) whose altered approaches supported wins. The more balanced offenses of the Panthers, Giants, Ravens, and 49ers won with run-heavy approaches (more than 58% run plays), albeit mostly in positive game flow.
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The crew of ESPN’s NFL Live theorized why running attacks have become more effective in 2022. Data collected from Pro Football Focus indicates that much of the success arises from power and counter rushing attacks. The crew opined that too many teams lack stout defensive linemen at the point of attack.
Commanders at Eagles
The example offered in the clip is the most recent game played – the Commanders’ Monday night victory in Philadelphia by a score of 32 to 21. The Eagles’ defense, the crew observed, missed Jordan Davis. Without the 6’-6” 336-pound nose tackle, the Eagles allowed 12 rushing first downs and 152 yards on 49 attempts.
The fantasy football implications of the surge in rushing attempts are significant. With Jordan Davis on the Reserve/Injured list, Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave each played at least 80% of the Eagles’ defensive snaps. The starting duo combined for 20 tackles, only one of which was behind the line of scrimmage. Reserve interior linemen Milton Williams and Marlon Tuipulotu collected another 15 tackles between them, and only one of those was for a loss. Davis outweighs each of these four teammates by more than 25 pounds.
Week 11’s Monday night game was the second intradivisional meeting between the Eagles and the Commanders. The script was reversed in their Week 3 game when the Eagles rushed 30 times en route to a 24-to-8 win over the Commanders, who ran the ball just 22 times. Philadelphia’s five interior defenders made just eleven tackles, including two for loss.
The Eagles allow 4.7 yards per carry in run defense, the ninth weakest in the league. Five of the Commanders’ remaining seven opponents rank worse. Washington is likely to continue their run-heavy approach and fuel tackle numbers in the front seven of opposing defenses. Philadelphia, meanwhile, signed veteran defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh this week.
Chargers at 49ers
The Eagles weren’t the only shorthanded front attacked by a reprioritized run game. The Chargers lost 2022 free-agent signee Austin Johnson, a run-stuffing defensive tackle, earlier this season. Two more interior defenders suffered significant injuries during Sunday night’s game in Santa Clara.
The 49ers ran the ball on 58.6 percent of their offensive snaps, about 14 percentage points higher than their season average. They converted 12 first downs and covered 157 yards on the ground in their 22-16 win. For fantasy purposes, the lead beneficiary was Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill, who collected 15 tackles.
Seahawks Vs. Buccaneers
The 35-year-old nose tackle Al Woods set a season-high snap count for the Seahawks versus a team intent on imposing its will in Germany Sunday morning. The Buccaneers ran 44 times for 10 first downs and 161 yards.
The victors exposed rookie nickelback Coby Bryant in run and pass defense, which led to Cody Barton’s resumption of a significant workload. The preseason breakout candidate Barton continues to defense the run well. He and running mate Jordyn Brooks combined for 25 tackles behind a defensive line that eats a lot of double teams to keep the linebackers clean. Barton made the case that he remains useful as a matchup-dependent LB3 going forward.
Brand-Name Defensive Ends Eat
Week 7 of Reading the Defense contemplated defensive ends who could produce for fantasy gamers by compiling tackles. Aidan Hutchinson was among those highlighted. He set a career-high with eight tackles in Week 11 versus Justin Fields and the Bears. Chicago’s transformed attack, reminiscent of the 2021 Eagles’ offense, fell just short of Detroit, 30 to 31.
Jonathan Taylor and the Colts finally looked like the team many expected in Week 11, albeit with a former offensive center at the helm after events no one could have predicted. In opposition, Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby equaled a career-best with ten tackles in the Colts’ 25-20 win.
The DNA of the Packers’ offense finally showed through after weeks of frustration in the pass game. With Aaron Jones leading the way, Green Bay ran 39 times for 9 first downs and 207 yards. DeMarcus Lawrence tied for the team lead with Micah Parsons, among others. The star pass-rusher Parsons played more snaps in the box than on the edge for the first time this season, seemingly to defend against the opponent’s run-heavy game plan.
T͓̽o͓̽m͓̽ ͓̽K͓̽i͓̽s͓̽l͓̽i͓̽n͓̽g͓̽b͓̽u͓̽r͓̽y͓̽ on Twitter Micah Parsons playing mostly LB yesterday.Just like old times. pic.twitter.com/9oMALM08I8— T͓̽o͓̽m͓̽ ͓̽K͓̽i͓̽s͓̽l͓̽i͓̽n͓̽g͓̽b͓̽u͓̽r͓̽y͓̽ (@TomKislingbury) November 14, 2022 Twitter While all three of Hutchinson, Crosby, and Lawrence scored sacks of opposing quarterbacks, their robust tackle totals pushed them up the fantasy leaderboard for the week.
Sit/Start Strategy
Not every fantasy roster is endowed with riches at defensive end that the above three names represent. As bye weeks and injuries mount, gamers are wise to gamble on players who could benefit from game flow.
Colts nose tackle Grover Stewart, for example, nearly doubled his career-high number of tackles in a game with twelve versus Derrick Henry and the Titans. Stewart then made eight tackles of Commanders the following week in a slog between two backup quarterbacks. He’ll face both Pennsylvania teams in the next two weeks. The Eagles have run not only a balanced offense but also an up-tempo attack all season. Coming out of their bye, the Steelers are among those teams reprioritizing the rushing attack. The Colts aren’t likely to build a big lead against either, so Stewart should fill box scores again.
Footballguys Custom SOS
Footballguys.com hosts a powerful tool that helps inform sit/start decisions. Its custom strength-of-schedule tool enables subscribers to identify which teams are allowing the most fantasy points by position compared to the number of points per game that team's opponents have scored in their other games. The tool is, therefore, a step above raw data for fantasy points allowed to each position.
The Lions’ defensive linemen are this week’s top group based on opponent according to the tool. They face the Giants, who run the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Quarterback Daniel Jones not only adds to the rushing attack but also pads defensive line stats with the worst pocket awareness in the league. Aidan Hutchinson should have more opportunities in both phases.
Was Dave Gettleman Right?
The NFL Live crew lamented the lack of space eaters among recent high-profile NFL draft prospects. Many observers criticized former Giants General Manager Dave Gettleman for drafting a two-down nose tackle in the person of Dexter Lawrence with the 17th overall pick of the 2019 draft.
Lawrence has evolved into a force in each phase in the middle of the Giants’ defense. Tampa Bay nose tackle Vita Vea is one of the best, least heralded players in the NFL. Carolina’s Derrick Brown has found a home in the middle after struggling in a three-technique role early in his career. Grover Stewart has evolved into a nice piece for the Colts’ defense. IDP fantasy football is evolving with them.
The NFL Live crew left unspoken that players like Lawrence and Vea – players with the size to occupy the middle and the athleticism to contribute to pass rush – are rare. 280-pound defensive ends with elite bend and burst are similarly uncommon. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has cited the scarcity of prototypical players like Vea and defensive end Joey Bosa as a reason for the development of his hybrid defensive fronts.
Defensive Tackle Diversification
During the last decade, fantasy gamers were wise to chase interior disruptors like Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, and Grady Jarrett. While those players remain relevant, only one defensive tackle was known for tackle production earlier in their careers. Damon Harrison, an IDP unicorn, gobbled up running backs and lived up to his nickname of “Snacks” by filling gaps at the point of attack.
As the game evolves, bringing more success running the football in 2022, multiple nose tackles are inching their way up the fantasy leaderboard of interior defenders. Fantasy gamers are happy to expand the guest list so that nose tackles other than Snacks can feast. NFL teams may need to focus on bringing bigger eaters to the interior defenders’ table through drafting and development.
Readers are offered thanks for indulging in this look into NFL defensive schemes and how they influence fantasy production. Footballguys staff considered how balanced offenses impact skill-position production three weeks ago.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.