Rotation or Rejection?
Throughout the preseason, the declarative statement, “That coach likes to rotate,” litters fantasy football content. A rotation typically refers to multiple players sharing one role or position on the field. All teams rotate players through the running back position. No one but New Orleans rotates quarterbacks in normal game circumstances.
On defense, every team rotates pass rushers. This role might be the most physically exhausting role on either side of the ball outside of the punishment that running backs take.
The balance of playing time between participants in such rotations significantly impacts each player’s production and fantasy value. A defensive end playing the vast majority of his defense’s snaps enjoys many more opportunities to collect tackles, sacks, and other stats that contribute fantasy points. Quality players in deep rotations lose these opportunities and can lag less-skilled players on other, often weaker defenses who see the field more frequently.
The Eagles are well known for their deep defensive-line rotation. The organization has sought to field at least eight regular, solid contributors since well before their current defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, entered the picture. The tendency helps the whole line exceed the sum of its parts. Josh Sweat, who’s played just 60 percent of the unit’s snaps, resides just inside Footballguys’ top 24 defensive ends in fantasy points despite ranking third in the league in pass-rush win rate per ESPN analytics.
The NFL’s leader in pass-rush win rate, Myles Garrett, is playing 80 percent of the Brown’s defensive snaps and ranks eighth on Footballguys’ leaderboard for defensive ends. Maxx Crosby leads all defensive ends in fantasy points not only because he has the second-most sacks (10.5) but also because he easily leads all defensive ends in tackles made (77). Crosby has played 95 percent of the Raiders’ defensive snaps this season and played full-time in each of the past two games.
Crosby’s workload is remarkably rare. He easily leads all edge defenders in snaps per game. His defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, seems to have concluded that Crosby is so much better than any second-teamers that the defense can’t succeed without him. Crosby’s current pass-rush win rate lags behind his 10th-place finish in 2021.
Notably, Graham has no history of giving his edge defenders a full-time workload. Graham has adjusted to his personnel in Las Vegas after stops in Miami and New York, where he had no similar talent to Crosby.
Reading the Defensive Snap Trends
A great deal of print is devoted to the analysis of who’s good at football. Often, the best source for such a conclusion is the league itself.
Maxx Crosby was the Raiders’ fourth-round pick in 2019. The fourth overall pick in the same draft by the same team leads the motley crew of defensive ends that Graham doesn’t trust on the field in place of Crosby. It’s no hot take to proclaim Crosby a better player than Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders reached that conclusion by Week 5 of their rookie year when Crosby overtook Ferrell in playing time.
Seattle edge defender Darrell Taylor is playing in his second season after missing all of 2020 to injury. In his column, IDP Upgrades, Footballguy Aaron Rudnicki names Taylor a downgrade for his lost playing time. Fantasy gamers are wise to interpret the NFL’s conclusions and take appropriate steps.
The first round of the 2021 NFL Draft featured six pass rushers. Most have developed a significant body of work such that their teams have reached conclusions on their fitness for playing time.
Jaelan Phillips, Miami
The 18th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft broke out early as a fantasy star with 8.5 quarterback sacks in a part-time role. In reality, Jaelan Phillips benefited from an effective, aggressive defense that finished fifth in sacks and second in quarterback pressures, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
The Dolphins’ defense has been perplexingly less effective in 2022. Its pass-rush metrics place it in the middle of the pack. That’s been through no fault of Phillips. He ranks eighth in the NFL in pass-rush win rate per ESPN Analytics.
Phillips played the role of pass-rush specialist in 2021, earning 54 percent of his unit’s snaps. He has substantially improved in run defense in 2022, and his playing time reflects his growth. He’s played 71 percent of available plays to date. He’s nearly matched his 2021 totals for tackles and quarterback hits through eleven games.
Fantasy gamers are undoubtedly frustrated with Phillips’s lackluster totals of 4.5 sacks and 5 tackles for loss. Patience is in order. The team has doubled down on its current defense with its trade for Bradley Chubb. The former Bronco is soaking up snaps previously played by Emmanual Ogbah, who suffered a season-ending injury. Andrew Van Ginkel, who started ahead of Phillips last year, occupies a minor role and is no threat. Veteran Melvin Ingram III fills Phillips’s former role as the first pass-rusher off the bench, playing about half the snaps.
Finscentral on Twitter Jaelan Phillips is a must watch every week. The big sack numbers will be coming soon and the addition of Bradley Chubb will only help him get more 1 on 1 opportunities. He’s already at 40 pressures this season which ranks 8th in the NFL. Last season he finished with 39. pic.twitter.com/8TZZJZk2Dh— Finscentral (@finscentral) November 18, 2022 Twitter
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Kwity Paye, Indianapolis
The 21st overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft has not enjoyed early-career success like Phillips. Kwity Paye has just 4.0 quarterback sacks in each of his first two seasons. He’s been injured twice in 2022, which has limited his production.
Paye played 66 percent of the Colts’ defensive snaps last season and is down to 61 percent due to time lost in two different games to injury. Paye has had no trouble, however, holding off the Colts’ platoon of former second-round picks. Dayo Odeyingbo, Ben Banogu, and Tyquan Lewis are no threats to Paye. Like Phillips, Paye is a clear hold for fantasy gamers weathering lackluster outputs.
Payton Turner, New Orleans
The entire Saints defense has been off in 2022, and the 28th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft bears some of the blame. Outside of a huge game against the Raiders in Week 8 (4 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 33 snaps), Turner has been nearly invisible in a messy rotation, including Carl Granderson, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and Marcus Davenport.
With Cameron Jordan nearing the end, the franchise needs Turner to emerge, but he’s shown little capacity to do so. Turner’s health has limited him to 12 of a possible 29 games, so the team won’t give up on him yet.
Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo
The 30th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft immediately established himself as a starter in the league’s best defense. Gregory Rousseau played half the Bills’ defensive snaps as a member of a deep rotation but emerged as a fantasy asset through prolific tackling.
Rousseau started 2022 on a tear, collecting 4.0 sacks in as many weeks while playing close to two-thirds of competitive game time. Subsequently, his workload fell below 50 percent. He was then injured in Week 9 and was inactive through Week 12.
He is back on the field Thursday night for Week 13’s first game and played 63% of the Bills' defensive snaps. Von Miller, however, missed the game with an injury of his own. Rousseau's role down the stretch opposite Miller, with the Bills playing critical games for playoff seeding, could indicate whether Rousseau emerges as a prominent fantasy commodity or a career platoon player.
The Bills heavily rotated edge rushers in 2021; however, the future Hall-of-Famer Miller has unsurprisingly played more (outside of two routes) than any Buffalo edge rusher last season. Like Paye, Rousseau could distance himself over the duo of former second-round picks behind him.
Odafe Oweh, Baltimore
Traits-based prospect Jayson Oweh earned notoriety as the only high pick without a quarterback sack in his final year in college. The Penn State alum asked to be known by his first name, Odafe, as a pro.
Week 11 marked the first time in the 2022 season that the Ravens had four viable edge defenders healthy and available for their rotation. All four played in Week 12 as well. Odafe Oweh, the 31st overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, played the fewest number of snaps of the four in each game. Among those playing ahead of him are 33-year-old Jason Pierre-Paul, a midseason signing off the street.
Oweh started four of the Ravens’ first five games but has seen his role cut by more than half since then. He has just one quarterback sack to his credit this season and only one tackle for loss since losing the starting job. His young career is trending in the wrong direction.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay
The 32nd overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft operated as the first pass-rusher off the bench for the defending Super Bowl champions in his rookie year. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is now the top pass-rusher in Tampa Bay after Shaquil Barrett’s season-ending injury. Jason Pierre-Paul, now of the Ravens, wasn’t re-signed.
The Buccaneers defense led the NFL with 219 quarterback pressures in 2021. Through 11 games, they are credited with just 99, which ranks in the middle of the pack.
Tryon-Shoyinka is credited with 3.5 quarterback sacks and just 12 pressures, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. He’s tied for 65th among the league’s defenders in quarterback pressures with, among others, Philadelphia’s Brandon Graham. Graham is 34, coming off an Achilles’ tendon tear, and has played about half as many snaps as Tryon.
Tryon-Shoyinka’s playing time has not suffered. It might not be affected like Oweh’s has been due to the lack of options the Buccaneers deem viable. Fantasy gamers should be wary of Tryon-Shoyinka unless his production improves, but the red flag waved over Oweh is not present in Tampa.
Each of these six pass-rushers should be emerging into regular fantasy options in Year 3 of their respective careers. Their production and playing time down the stretch in 2022 – Year 2 – will likely provide glimpses into their potential in 2023 and beyond.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.