Will Early Returns on Value Picks at LB Continue?
Fantasy football gamers accept statistical outbursts as indications of good play and predictors of future results. The fickleness of tackles in IDP is underappreciated.
Over time, a good linebacker will compile tackles largely as a result of earning and retaining a full-time role. Almost all will make a tackle at a rate of at least one per ten snaps, while the average is about one tackle per eight snaps. The linebacker posting huge numbers for fantasy gamers can collect a tackle for every six snaps resulting in a distinct advantage each Sunday.
Very few players can sustain this rate of a tackle every sixth snap across an entire season. Defensive context would have to hold or at least frequently recur for 1,100 or more snaps.
The context that fuels tackle compilation can be schematic or situational. Teams like the Bears keep their safeties back and send their defensive ends upfield. They rely on athletic linebackers to cover a lot of ground in the middle of the field.
Jon Macri, a defensive analyst and IDP fantasy writer for Pro Football Focus, finds that zone coverages increase tackle rates for linebackers. More specifically, his analysis indicates that zones with two high safeties (Cover-2, 4, and 6) allow linebackers to collect more tackles. The findings support the intuition that linebackers in the box without company from the strong safety will collect more tackles.
The most intuitive situation that renders big tackle numbers is a team killing the clock by rushing. Weather conditions can have a similar effect. Both Jacksonville linebackers piled up tackles against the Eagles' volume run game last Sunday in windy, rainy Philadelphia.
A linebacker can also compile tackles in the passing game if he's a liability. Seattle's Jordyn Brooks led the NFL in solo tackles and completions allowed by a linebacker. Opposing quarterbacks collectively earned a rating of 118.4 when targeting him in coverage, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.
2022 Top Ten to Date
The top ten linebackers by fantasy points at Footballguys.com include four highly drafted players, two upside bets drafted later, and four sleepers. The mix is similar to the end-of-season ranks for 2021 but stands in contrast with 2020. Name-brand players dominated fantasy scoring two seasons ago and rejuvenated robust-linebacker draft strategy.
The value plays in 2021 were recognizable names in good situations (e.g., DeVondre Campbell and Kyzir White). That summer, fantasy gamers reasonably questioned whether the quality of their play would enable them to maintain productive roles throughout the season. Some of 2022's value picks have ranged from similar in kind to 2021 to those flabbergasting IDP gamers.
Chicago's Roquan Smith, Jacksonville's Foye Oluokun, and Seattle's Jordyn Brooks are on pace to repeat as top-ten finishers. Devin White of Tampa Bay is currently on pace to duplicate his first overall finish among linebacker scoring in 2020.
Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis
Injuries to All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard created opportunity for Zaire Franklin, the fourth-year player from Syracuse, to see the field full-time. He capitalized such that he appeared to have surpassed Bobby Okereke and remained on the field full-time upon Leonard's return in Week 4, a development few fantasy gamers saw coming.
Through four weeks (before Thursday night's game in Denver), Franklin played every defensive snap for Indianapolis (258) and ranked second in the NFL with 45 total tackles behind Roquan Smith (46). His rate of tackles per snap, 17.4%, is slightly lower than the rate Denzel Perryman posted for the Raiders last season. Perryman played linebacker in Las Vegas for defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who now leads the Colts' defense.
Franklin is accomplishing something Perryman never has – playing full-time. Perryman nevertheless finished eleventh in fantasy points in 2021 (Footballguys.com scoring). Bradley's conservative defense, with little blitzing and plenty of zone coverage, tasks its linebackers with keeping the ball in front of them and coming up to make tackles.
Leonard should still return and re-emerge as a fantasy force in his own right; however, Franklin's usage and warts in pass coverage should preserve most of the fantasy value he's accrued. Currently ninth in fantasy scoring, Franklin is an LB1 for fantasy gamers as long as he can hold off Okereke. Bradley turned the Raiders' linebacker corps on its collective head more than once last year.
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Pete Werner, New Orleans
The first edition of Reading the Defense for 2022 showcased the Saints' Pete Werner as one of several young linebackers playing sizable roles. His running mate, Demario Davis, is perennially one of the league's best coverage linebackers. The two play distinctly different roles in the Saints' defense, a contrast rarely so stark and visible in the NFL's eleventh decade.
These highlights of Pete Werner from Youtuber Whodattsnation show Werner supporting the defensive line while Davis typically hangs back in coverage. Werner, in turn, has made 40 tackles in 234 snaps, a rate of 17.1%. Demario Davis's rate of tackles per snap is 9.1%. Werner further ranks second in the NFL in tackles during run defense, according to Pro Football Focus, with 23 (Roquan Smith, 24).
Under Dennis Allen's defense, Werner's statistical productivity has no precedent in New Orleans. The usage and results, however, appear sustainable. Werner has not been picked on in coverage. He's not piled up numbers in an extraordinary game flow. The Saints are blitzing less and playing more two-high coverages this year. He's on track to finish as a low-end LB1 as Perryman did in 2021 without playing full-time. The later pick spent on Werner as an upside bet in fantasy drafts is paying off.
Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville
The Jaguars' rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd is everything IDP dynasty gamers could have hoped for when they selected the former Utah Ute in rookie drafts over the spring and summer. The Jaguars' third-round pick, Chad Muma, is an afterthought in this defense behind Lloyd, the first-rounder.
Lloyd has collected 38 tackles in 262 snaps (14.5%) and supplemented his production with big plays. Opposing offenses have tested him in coverage, and he's delivered six pass breakups and two interceptions. Opposing quarterbacks have a 48.7 rating when targeting Lloyd in coverage, per Pro Football Reference.
New Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell came to Jacksonville from Tampa Bay, where he was a position coach. His Buccaneers had practiced a brand of defense that used linemen to occupy blockers and free up linebackers in zone coverage to make plays. The Jaguars appear to have found a dynamic young linebacker to thrive in a similar system and enter the conversation about perennial LB1s. Like the Buccaneers' linebackers, Lloyd's path to success will be an average to above-average tackle rate supplemented with big plays.
The game in Philadelphia last Sunday, where weather forced a run-heavy approach by the Eagles, inflated his current rate of 14.5% tackles per snap. Lloyd is a riskier play in tackle-heavy formats.
Mykal Walker, Atlanta
Like Zaire Franklin, Mykal Walker has climbed a depth chart since training camp and emerged as an LB1 for fantasy gamers. As in Indianapolis, a name-brand linebacker's uncertain status opened the door of opportunity in Atlanta. Walker has made 33 tackles in 267 snaps (12.4%), including a sack, forced two turnovers, and broken up two passes.
Walker's tackle numbers have risen steadily through four games. He collected nine tackles in Seattle in Week 3 and eleven vs. the Browns last Sunday. Walker allowed 16 receptions in 18 targets across these two games, potentially exposing a weakness in the Falcons' defense to future opponents.
The Falcons have the NFL's 27th-ranked defense and the worst pass rush. Walker's supporting cast and low blitz rate don't support continued big-play production. The Falcons' above-average use of man coverage offsets an increase in two-high zone coverages such that Walker's average rate of tackles per snap should continue. Walker should settle in as an LB2 as the season progresses.
Jordan Hicks, Minnesota
Jordan Hicks, the former top-three fantasy linebacker as a Cardinal, was a sleeper coming into 2022 as a Viking. Fantasy gamers couldn't be sure how large his role would be playing for new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. While Donatell was Denver's defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021, he coached under defensive mastermind Vic Fangio. Donatell's tendencies in calling plays and deploying personnel could only be guessed.
The Vikings are playing a conservative defense that rarely blitzes and uses zone coverages at the second-highest rate in the league. The coverages almost always keep two safeties deep, meaning less competition in the box with linebackers for tackles.
Jordan Hicks has collected 38 tackles in 237 snaps (16.0%). He's been credited with a quarterback sack; however, he's not blitzed once, according to Pro Football Reference. He's unlikely to stumble into many more big plays in 2022, and his tackle rate should converge with that of his running mate, Eric Kendricks (11.6%), as the season progresses. Hicks will fade from the leaderboard in time.
Hicks is allowing 5.5 yards per carry in run defense per PFF and 9.5 yards per target in pass defense per PFR. The bend-but-don't-break scheme is only partially responsible for these high numbers.
A potential threat to his role is the 66th pick of the 2022 NFL draft, Brian Asamoah. If the Vikings fade from contention, they would be wise to see what they have in the rookie before committing to the second year of Hicks's contract in Minnesota.
Frankie Luvu, Carolina
No top-ten fantasy linebacker has been a bigger surprise than Carolina's Frankie Luvu. He's overtaken veteran Shaq Thompson as the top player at the second level of the Panthers' defense in 2022. Thompson was not only an effective compiler in 2021 but also an effective player in the opinion of Pro Football Focus.
Luvu was primarily an edge defender for three years in New York (Jets) before he arrived in Charlotte in 2021. Last season, Luvu occupied a part-time SAM role, in which he split time between the edge and the second level. Luvu's role in 2022 is similar, yet he's playing almost full-time. His 17 tackles in run defense (per Pro Football Focus) tie him for fourth in the NFL with Zaire Franklin and Foye Oluokun.
Edge defenders typically collect tackles at a low rate relative to other alignments. Luvu's frequent use on the edge helps keep his tackle rate down. He's credited with 32 tackles in 277 snaps (11.6%). A pick-six has helped fuel his rise into the ranks of the LB1s.
The Panthers' defense is showing stark changes from 2021. They are blitzing less and using more zone coverages. Their pass rush outside of Brian Burns has been listless this season. Carolina played the fourth fewest defensive snaps in 2021 but the third most to date in 2022.
Their conservatism contributes to their inability to get off the field. As a result, Luvu is playing a high number of snaps.
Given the disastrous start for their offense, will the Panthers' defense play with more urgency to create turnovers and short fields? They might conclude they must rely more often on their investments in cornerbacks to hold up in man coverage to free up pass-rushers. Luvu himself could blitz more, further lowering his floor as a tackler.
Frankie Luvu feels like the most fleeting and riskiest bet of the top-ten-scoring fantasy linebackers to maintain his position for the season. In any event, he's unlikely to sustain a tackle rate of 11.6% with his high frequency of edge deployment. He's a pleasant surprise and an interesting story that should open trade dialogue.
You Get What You Pay For
Among the most difficult tasks in fantasy football is to discern sustainable value from surprise players. The youngsters, Werner and Lloyd are playing well and rewarding their coaches' confidence in them.
Mykal Walker might fairly be lumped in with the Saint and the Jaguar. Walker, however, has a high-priced veteran and a Round-2 rookie looking over his shoulder.
Franklin, Hicks, and Luvu surely earned their own coaches' trust as well this summer; however, their level of play and the turbulence around them belie their ranks in fantasy football scoring. These players do not need to be benched to burn fantasy gamers. If any of these linebackers lose just a quarter of their playing time, they become nearly irrelevant IDPs in fantasy football. The four surprise linebackers carry varying levels of risk for the rest of the season.
Analysis in all these columns will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.