The New Reality No.185: Roster Spots by Team Direction

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.185: Roster Spots by Team Direction Chad Parsons Published 10/12/2022

Final roster spots are the most liquid commodity for dynasty teams. The tide of the weekly churn for those spots due to the waiver wire points to a transient approach. Unlike future rookie picks, which have no limit on the number a team can collect, roster spots are finite. Each week of the regular season and periodically with waiver runs in the offseason these roster spot players will be tested to justify their continued spot. With trading paramount over the next six weeks in dynasty leagues, picking a team direction with trade targets is key. But final roster spots are pivotal to align with team direction in the second half of the dynasty regular season as well.

CONTENDING TEAMS

Insulation and Upside.

These are the tenets for contending teams to maximize their final roster spots. Especially once the trade deadline has passed, the trade value of those final players is not as important. Plenty will change before trading opens up in the offseason. Protecting and insulating your contending roster and lineup is paramount.

Truly strong teams, I refer to the principle of the double lineup as a goal. Essentially, you want to get to the point of having a decent lineup on your bench most weeks. If the lineup is 1-2-3-1 with a flex at the skill positions, for example, there would still be a mirror of that which can compete with plenty of teams in the league, on your bench after setting your lineup. This insulates your team, especially in-season and in the closing weeks, from 1-2-3 injuries that could derail non-insulated playoff teams at a critical moment.

The other tenet is upside. The 'What if?' of one thing occurring (typically an injury) on the player's depth chart and your stash player surging to prominence. You want a shot-in-the-arm type appeal from your bench-stash spots to both aid your own team pushing for a title but also play keep away as this type of player on the waiver wire means they could be picked up by your competition in the playoff push or the postseason itself.

Finally, here is a list of contending team-centric players at the skill positions to fit the criteria above for final roster spots. Shallow-league availability was not considered, but rather 25+ man roster availability in at least a cross-section of dynasty leagues and going deep enough to provide options for all dynasty teams for consumption:

QUARTERBACKS

The low-level current starting quarterbacks available in 1QB formats are likely low-upside options in general. Targeting Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson in an affordable trade is an example of adding potential upside in the future and as early as a few weeks from now. Both are prime bounce-back candidates within the position. Another option is Deshaun Watson, who is out until essentially the fantasy playoffs, but fits the shot-in-the-arm potential now and in future seasons if operating without a strong quarterback at present.

RUNNING BACKS

Primary backup running backs are the theme here. This week's backup could be next week's strong streamer (or for the rest of the season). Ensure no primary backups are available on the waiver wire in your league. With bye weeks beginning this week, monitor drop players from other teams in the league meticulously over the next two months. Roster spot pressure to fill bye weeks and injury vacancies means more primary backup running backs will float to the waiver wire.

Some of the lower Roster Rate backs (outside RB60 on MFL) with upside in their profile and/or situation include:

RB Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos: Signed post-Javonte Williams injury, chance to surpass Mike Boone as the primary backup to Melvin Gordon as the weeks pass.

RB Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills: The clear RB2 in Buffalo with James Cook still sparsely playing.

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RB Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals: Perine has lapped Chris Evans in snaps in the RB2/3 rotation. If Joe Mixon misses time, Perine has a shot for more upside and market share in the lead role than Mixon.

RB DOnta Foreman, Carolina Panthers: Besides benefitting from injury, Foreman has a shot at becoming the 1A back if Christian McCaffrey is traded.

RB Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers: Kelley has surpassed Sony Michel for the valuable RB2 role for the Chargers.

RB Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins: A new addition with his surge past Chase Edmonds in Week 5. This might be an evolving situation, and Gaskin recedes back to an ancillary role. However, Raheem Mostert has not stayed healthy in the NFL for any extended duration, and Miami is a valuable backfield to hold the RB2.

RB Matt Breida, New York Giants: Long considered one of the least valuable RB2 spots over the past couple of months, Breida is likely to be cut by his existing moderate-depth dynasty team over the next couple of months unless Saquon Barkley is injured or the team is running back-minded with bench spots.

RB Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts: After his flash performance in Week 5 with a meaningful workload, Jackson looks the part to benefit from future missed games by Jonathan Taylor. Also, Jackson has upside for a primary backup role in 2023.

RB DeeJay Dallas, Seattle Seahawks: A common pickup this week, Dallas has the upside to be the RB2 and benefactor to a Kenneth Walker injury for the rest of the season. That long-range opportunity in-season is valuable and worth prioritizing over a shorter-term window.

RB Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers: Coleman rose to the RB2 role for the 49ers, a depth chart under constant change by injury and weekly preference in recent years. Coleman might be off the roster in a few weeks, but also has the upside for clarified starts on a quality 49ers offense in the perfect storm if Jeff Wilson misses time and Elijah Mitchell is not ready yet.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receivers are more nuanced as simply an injury in front of them on the depth chart is not enough for many ancillary options in the NFL to be strong streaming candidates in dynasty leagues. Be selective with which offenses and high-upside for the rest of the season stash you make via trade or waiver wire additions. Some which warrant consideration on the lower-end of the Roster Rate spectrum include:

Heading even deeper into the pool of cheaper trade targets and possibly off the waiver wire in shallower formats includes:

TIGHT ENDS

For tight ends, we are looking for the highest upside injury-away options or underrated starters who could get on a run of production late in the season.

NON-CONTENDING TEAMS

For non-contending teams, the theme is talent and/or pedigree to stash into the offseason. If there are notable free agents on the depth chart, including themselves, this is also a factor. The key is getting some probability chance they are worthy of keeping through your annual rookie draft or having clarity you want to keep him after NFL free agency and the NFL Draft are complete in the next 5-6 months.

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

The theme here is either injured backs with their recovery in 2023 or young backs who are blocked in some capacity with depth chart upside in the offseason.

WIDE RECEIVERS

The theme here is injured players, distressed asset profiles, or murky situations likely to clarify in the offseason. The 2022 rookies will be the most expensive but offering a current producer if on a contending team is a trade construction for a win-win. Calvin Ridley will be 29 years old in 2023, but has a productive track record previously in his career. Allen Robinson might be done, but should be highly affordable. Kadarius Toney's main concern is persistent injuries stopping any production momentum before it begins over his first two seasons. Denzel Mims is one of the few valid dart throws of the position who has produced in sporadic bursts and has the upside to be a team's de facto WR1 or the WR2 on a strong passing game in future seasons.

TIGHT ENDS

Similar to wide receivers, projecting potential future starting roles, especially in 2TE and premium formats for the tight end position is key. The low-hanging fruit is Mike Gesicki (moving on from Miami) to create a potential starting opportunity for Day 2 Hunter Long. Trusting the Round 1 pedigree of Noah Fant for more opportunities is another profile for 2023 targeting. Cade Otton, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and Quintin Morris have 'win the Week 1 job in 2023' upside if they flash to close 2022.

Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys

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