We are two weeks into the season and we're starting to get some clarity, which is always a good thing, no matter if it's good news or bad. It's the unknown and making important decisions involving the unknown, which make this hobby a challenge. The more we know, the better off we are.
So What Do We Know? A Lot, Actually
The first three weeks of the season are my favorite. So much is being learned at this time. The cream is rising to the top. Opportunities are being presented to players and several have answered the bell with a successful first two games. Injuries are starting to mount, especially for quarterbacks. With every injury comes an opportunity for someone else to fill the void, and the cycle continues. Winning your league is about having key performers and knowing who to target before they rise to power. Although it's not a must, players on winning teams are generally more successful fantasy options.
- Teams that are 2-0: Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Miami, NY Giants, Tampa Bay
- Teams that are 0-2: Atlanta, Carolina, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Tennessee
What Makes a Successful Running Back?
1. Opportunity - There is more of a chance to have success if the opportunity for carries is high. The following teams lead the way in running plays per game. You want to have running backs on these teams. These are also the backs you should target for proactive waiver claims, if available.
- 41.0 San Francisco (Jeff Wilson, Tyrion Davis-Price, Jordan Mason)
- 38.0 Cleveland (Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford)
- 32.5 Atlanta (Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Williams, Tyler Allgeier)
- 32.5 NY Giants (Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida)
- 32.0 Chicago (David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert)
- 31.5 Tampa Bay (Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Keyshawn Vaughn)
- 29.5 Cincinnati (Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Chris Evans)
- 28.0 Green Bay (Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon)
- 27.5 LA Chargers (Austin Ekeler, Josh Kelley, Sony Michel)
- 27.5 Jacksonville (James Robinson, Travis Etienne)
- 26.5 New England (Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson)
The more plays a team runs the greater chance of having positive fantasy success. Understanding which teams run more plays per game and which teams run fewer will give us a better indication of which players to target when it comes to setting a lineup.
Total Plays Per Game
Teams in green run more plays per game so naturally, the chances are higher for more production. The opposite is true for teams in red.
- 80.5 CIN
- 73.0 NYJ
- 71.0 WAS
- 70.5 ARI
- 70.0 PHI
- 69.5 CLE, LAC
- 69.0 IND
- 68.5 SF
- 64.5 JAC, LAR, DEN
- 64.0 MIA, NYG
- 63.5 DET, ATL, TB, GB, HOU
- 61.5 BUF, NO, DAL
- 60.0 KC, MIN, NE
- 59.5 PIT
- 58.5 LSV
- 56.5 TEN
- 53.5 BAL
- 52.0 CAR
- 48.5 CHI
- 48.0 SEA
Total Plays Allowed Per Game
The teams are allowing the fewest plays per game. It would stand to reason that you would want to target your players who are playing against the teams in green and shy away from players who are playing the teams in red.
- 80.0 PIT
- 77.5 HOU
- 74.0 BAL
- 72.0 CAR, DET
- 71.5 LSV
- 68.5 KC
- 68.0 NO
- 67.5 IND
- 67.0 SEA
- 66.5 CHI
- 65.0 TB
- 64.5 MIN, DAL
- 63.5 ARI
- 62.5 PHI
- 61.5 WAS, TEN
- 60.0 CIN, ATL
- 59.5 BUF
- 59.0 JAC, NYJ
- 58.5 NE, CLE
- 57.0 NYG, LAR
- 55.0 LAC
- 54.0 DEN, MIA
- 51.5 SF
- 51.0 GB
Positive matchups favoring a high number of plays for Week 3 - IND vs KC is a decent matchup for both teams. NO at CAR is another strong matchup for NO in terms of plays vs plays allowed.
Negative matchups in terms of the number of plays for Week 3 - TB vs GB, BUF at MIA, and BAL at NE.
Key Stats for Identifying Wide Receiver Success
Target Percentage (% of team's targets)
- 38% Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 35% Drake London, ATL
- 35% A.J. Brown, PHI
- 34% Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
- 33% Davante Adams, LSV
- 32% Stefon Diggs, BUF
- 32% Tyreek Hill, MIA
- 32% CeeDee Lamb, DAL
- 31% Mark Andrews, BAL
- 31% Diontae Johnson, PIT
- 31% Justin Jefferson, MIN
- 30% Brandin Cooks, HOU
- 29% Amari Cooper, CLE
- 29% Jakobi Meyers, NE
- 28% JaMarr Chase, CIN
- 28% Deebo Samuel, SF
- 28% Courtland Sutton, DEN
- 27% Jaylen Waddle, MIA
- 27% Equanimeous St. Brown, CHI
- 26% Christian Kirk, JAC
- 26% Tyler Higbee, LAR
- 26% Tyler Lockett, SEA
Receptions on First Down - Players on this list are generally thought to be reliable sources of yardage on first down.
- 11 Stefon Diggs, BUF
- 8 Mark Andrews, BAL
- 8 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
- 8 Tyreek Hill, MIA
- 7 Davante Adams, LSV
- 7 Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 7 A.J. Brown, PHI
- 6 Brandin Cooks, HOU
- 6 Jarvis Landry, NO
- 6 Joe Mixon, CIN
- 6 Zach Ertz, ARI
- 6 Saquon Barkley, NYG
- 6 Austin Ekeler, LAC
- 6 Justin Jefferson, MIN
- 6 CeeDee Lamb, DAL
- 6 Jaylen Waddle, MIA
- 6 Dallas Goedert, PHI
- 6 Drake London, ATL
Receptions resulting in a first down - Teams rely on these players to sustain drives and move the ball.
- 15 JaMarr Chase, CIN
- 15 Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 12 Jaylen Waddle, MIA
- 11 Tyreek Hill, MIA
- 11 Justin Jefferson, MIN
- 11 Stefon Diggs, BUF
- 10 Davante Adams, LSV
- 10 Michael Thomas, NO
- 10 Travis Kelce, KC
- 9 Noah Brown, DAL
- 9 Courtland Sutton, DEN
- 9 Mark Andrews, BAL
- 9 A.J. Brown, PHI
Tight Ends Productions
Tight ends with 6+ targets in each game
- Mark Andrews, BAL
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ
- Pat Freiermuth, PIT
- Tyler Higbee, LAR
- T.J. Hockenson, DET
- Hayden Hurst, CIN
- Travis Kelce, KC
- Darren Waller, LSV
Tight ends with 50+ receiving yards in each game
- Mark Andrews, BAL
- Gerald Everett, LAC
- Dallas Goedert, PHI
- Travis Kelce, KC
- Darren Waller, LSV
Have Fantasy Players on High-Scoring Teams
Top scoring teams through Week 2 (points scored)
- 72 BUF
- 71 KC, DET
- 62 MIA, PHI, BAL
- 56 CLE
- 55 WAS
- 53 ATL
- 50 ARI
- 48 LAC
- 46 JAC
- 42 LSV
- 41 LAR
- 40 NYJ, NYG, CAR
- 39 TB
- 37 PIT, CIN, NO, SF
- 34 GB
- 32 DEN
- 30 MIN
- 29 HOU, CHI
- 27 TEN
- 24 NE, SEA
- 23 DAL
- 20 IND
Player Notes
Some notes on players for those who are in deeper leagues.
Darrel Williams, ARI - Went from 0 snaps in Week 1 to 46% in Week 2. He rushed for 59 yards on 8 carries and scored a touchdown. With James Conner (ankle) likely out for Week 3, Williams becomes a person of interest.
Drake London, ATL - Drake London is the top receiving target by far, especially with Kyle Pitts seeing less action. London is on his way to a top 25 season and could lead the team in targets at year's end.
Noah Brown, DAL - Brown is second in line for targets behind CeeDee Lamb and he has 5 receptions in both games including a touchdown in Week 2.
Packers WRs - No Packers receiver has over 17% team target percentage so far. In short, Aaron Rodgers is spreading the ball around well.
Chiefs WRs - Outside of Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster are running the most routes for Kansas City. Both have a 15% team target percentage.
Tyler Higbee, LAR - Higbee, and Mark Andrews are the only tight ends with a team target percentage of 26% or higher.
Giants WRs - Sterling Shepard and Richie James appear to be the go-to wide receivers for New York based on target percentage. Shepard (25%) and James (24%). Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney are non-factors at the moment.
Jets WRs - Garrett Wilson is making the most of his chances despite running a route in 66% of his snaps. Meanwhile, Elijah Moore runs a route at a 90% clip.
Steelers receivers - Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth lead the way for the Steelers in team target percentage at 31% and 24% respectively. George Pickens is slowly getting acclimated at 9% but he's running a route on 92% of his snaps.
Treylon Burks, TEN - Burks has a 22% team target percentage, but he's running a route on 49% of his snaps.
It's Time to Fine Tune
If you started off 0-2 or 1-1, it's not too late to turn things around. Sometimes, one player in your lineup with a big game can make the difference between a win and a loss. There are plenty of players who have yet to have a big week and some are probably on your roster. Make the right waiver picks and lineup decisions and don't be afraid to make a trade that could change your season for the better if he hits. Sometimes you have to overpay for the player you want, but if it works for your lineup, I say do it.
Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.