DraftKings GPP Domination Week 5

PSA

Hey everyone, Devin Knotts here as I’ll be doing this article for the remainder of the season. This will be a continued evolving article, so please provide feedback on either Twitter.com/devinknottsfbg or knotts@footballguys.com.

Apologies for the delay in the release, we are targeting to release this much earlier in a given week, however due to some time management items I failed to do that in my first week. This will be an evolving article that much like the Cracking FanDuel article that I do, the intent is to make it as good as possible, and the feedback is absolutely critical.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Stacks

Top Stack

Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper

Surprisingly, this stack could have almost fit into the “Under the Radar” stacks, as so many people are going to be on the Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia stacks this week. However, this is the second-highest projected scoring game of the week, and we saw last year that this could be a potential shootout of a contest. Last year, was a back and forth battle which ended up 47-42 between these two teams and while it is difficult to see it ending the same way, there are a lot of similar players. Mike Williams will see a significant amount of Denzel Ward who surprisingly this year has been one of the worst corners in football and played a significant role in the Browns struggles so far this season as he has allowed the 12^th most receiving yards while in coverage. With no Keenan Allen, and the Browns have been good against pass receiving running backs allowing just 23 receiving yards per game, Williams should be in an amazing spot this week.

Cooper is likely going to be less than 5% rostered mostly due to his poor performance last week, but the two prior games he topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown. The Browns are likely going to need to go with a pass heavy approach given that they’re home underdogs. The Chargers have allowed 18 or more DraftKings points to four wide receivers this season including 33 points to Davante Adams, and 24.5 to Zay Jones. This is a defense that can be beaten, especially with how poorly JC Jackson has been this season as he's clearly playing less than 100%.

Under the Radar Stacks

Geno Smith, Chris Olave, and Tyler Lockett

A lot of people are going to look at the Seahawks and just avoid playing Geno Smith in GPP’s based off of his past history as a quarterback. However, the last two weeks, Smith has topped 320 yards in each of those two games against Detroit and Atlanta. With Smith being 2-4% rostered, it can allow you to play some of the more popular players such as Chris Olave 16% and even Tyler Lockett at 11%. The reason for Lockett over a player such as Metcalf, is that it’s likely that Metcalf will likely see a majority of Marshon Lattimore who is one of the more difficult matchups in football while Justin Jefferson exploited the Saints out of the slot totaling 147 yards receiving.

Chris Olave is interesting this week for a few different reasons. Michael Thomas will miss this week’s game due to injury, and Jarvis Landry has largely been a non-factor after a big Week 1. Olave was one of the best route runners coming into the 2022 NFL Draft and he’s making an immediate impact as he is averaging 18.8 DraftKings points over his last three weeks. At just $16,800 for the trio, this is a combination that allows you to spend up at other positions or go with a more expensive defense.

Fade Stacks

Tampa Bay vs Atlanta

A lot of people are going to be drawn to this game, simply because of the high scoring projection that the Buccaneers have this week. Tampa Bay is projected to score 28 points this week, so quick math tells you they’re projected to score 4 touchdowns between Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette. The problem here is that these players are going to be vastly over rostered with Leonard Fournette currently projected at 23%, Chris Godwin at 15%, Tom Brady at 12%, and Mike Evans at 10%.

This is a team that has only topped 20 points once this season which was last week, in a game that they were never really competitive. We don’t know where this team is at mentally as Todd Bowles missed time this week due to personal reasons, Tom Brady is dealing with personal issues, and Chris Godwin/Mike Evans have both been dealing with injuries so far this year. Not to mention, on the Atlanta side, they’re without two of the their best players in Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, so will they try to keep this as a low scoring slow paced game? This seems like a game that you just want to avoid given the popularity of it.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback position is really going to be a stars and scrubs type approach this week, as pricing is somewhat difficult this week, so many people are going to be looking at the value type players.

High-End Play

The top-end of the quarterbacks is difficult this week due to the pricing and uncertainty of some of the lower end options.

Josh Allen- $8,200- 18.0%

Josh Allen is the one player that simply has to be in consideration every week based on his upside. This week is no different, as his price has actually come down by $200 in a game in which the Bills are projected to score 30 points against the Steelers. The Bills will be without several key contributors including Dawson Knox, Jamison Crowder, Jake Kumerow, and most likely Isaiah McKenzie leaving just Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis as their two healthy receivers. This could be a scenario where Allen takes more on as a running back than he otherwise would like to in a potential blowout game, but the Steelers linebackers are quite poor as evidenced by the 47 yards rushing they allowed to Joe Burrow in Week 1.

Value Plays

Carson Wentz- $5,700 2.3%

The Commanders last two games have been a disaster offensively as they have averaged just 190 yards passing in those two contests. This is a drastic difference compared to the 325 yard average that Carson Wentz had in the first two games of the season. The big difference has been the amount of pressure that Wentz was under against two very good pass rushing teams in Dallas and Philadelphia. The Titans are coming off of back to back 300-yard performances from Matt Ryan and Derek Carr. If you give Wentz time, he can make you pay this week.

Kirk Cousins- $6,300- 4.2%

Kirk Cousins is an interesting play almost every week, as he has upside that he seemingly pulls out of nowhere several times per season, and then just goes back to being incredibly average. So far this season, Cousins has failed to top 300-yards, which the last time he went 5 games in a row without throwing for 300 was the first five-games of the 2020 season. Cousins is a nice pivot away from Dalvin Cook, who will be popular this week as the narrative to beat the Bears is on the ground. However, the Bears have played one of the weakest quarterback schedules in football this year in Davis Mills, Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, and Daniel Jones. This is a secondary that does not have significant talent, and the Vikings should be able to throw against this team.

Running Back

High-End Play-

Derrick Henry- $8,300- 7.2% Rostered

Without looking at any stats, what is your first thought when it comes to Derrick Henry? For most people it is great runner, but inability to catch passes which makes it tough to start him on DraftKings. While historically, you may be accurate, we have seen a change over the last two weeks where Henry has caught four passes in each game. Henry after a very slow start has averaged 145 yards rushing+receiving and has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games. At $8,300 and to only be 7.2% rostered, he is a tremendous play this week against a Commanders defense that while their overall stats look good, have yet to play a running back at the level of Derrick Henry. Look for the Titans to continue to build off of this new offense and continue to try to get Henry the ball through the air this week. Henry has as much upside as any player on this slate and to get him at only 7% rostered simply because of some bias of early season struggles is a fantastic play.

Christian McCaffrey- $8,500 3.3% Rostered

Christian McCaffrey is a high-risk play this week at just 3% rostered as the Panthers are changing up their offense as they are getting more desperate with their 1-3 start this season. Last week in a loss to Arizona, McCaffrey was targeted 9 times out of the backfield amounting 81 yards and a touchdown. The team has realized that Mayfield has an inability to cycle through his progressions and get to the running back, so they have made McCaffrey more of a primary option in the passing game. With Carolina likely falling behind in this game, expect them to once again try to get McCaffrey in space through the air and target him early and often.

Value Plays

Jeff Wilson Jr. $5,500 13.8%

Jeff Wilson has consolidated what historically has been a committee backfield into a lead back situation. In two of the last three games, Wilson has 18 carries against the Rams and Seahawks both in wins, but what’s amazing is the lack of volume that any other running back is getting on this team. It’s a team that is decimated with injuries as Tyrion Davis-Price and Eli Mitchell are both out. Carolina’s defense is one that has been good so far this season, but were exposed in Week 1 against Nick Chubb who had 141 yards. Wilson while not a true receiving back, has caught three passes in two of his four games this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson- $5,500 14.5%

The Patriots are in a spot where they are going to have to leverage both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson heavily this week against the Lions as Bailey Zappe makes his first NFL start due to the injuries of Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. While most think of the Patriots rushing attack as a complete avoid due to the committee between the two, Stevenson has been versatile averaging 13 carries and four receptions each of the last two weeks. The Lions are coming off of a week in which they allowed 151 yards and 2 touchdowns to Rashaad Penny as they boast one of the worst defenses in football. If there is cause for concern it would be the red zone touches that favor Damien Harris 12 to 4 compared to Stevenson, but have been much closer over the last two weeks 6 to 4.

Jamaal Williams $6,500 6.7%

Jamaal Williams is interesting, as once again the Lions will be extremely short-handed as D’Andre Swift, D.J. Chark, and Quintez Cephus have all been ruled out while Amon-Ra St. Brown looks questionable/doubtful to play this week. While the Lions were able to successfully throw the ball last week with T.J. Hockenson and Josh Reynolds, it is hard to see them continuing to be able to do that as efficiently against the Patriots. This is an offense that will likely lean on Williams who is averaging 19.5 carries over the last two weeks with Swift out.

Wide Receiver

High-End Plays-

Cooper Kupp- $9,600 14.5%

Look, yes he’s expensive, and for good reason. If Kupp was $8,500, he would be rostered by 50%+ of people. So, props to DraftKings for doing all that they could to make it a difficult decision on whether you start Cooper Kupp in your lineup this week. However, he needs to be in strong consideration seemingly every week, but especially this week in that there are not must play running backs at the top end of the salary range. Kupp is the closest thing we have to consistency from the wide receiver position and in a game that the Cowboys should have a dominant pass rush against the struggling Rams offensive line, Matthew Stafford is going to throw the ball to Kupp as often as possible even when he is not always open.

Mike Williams- $7,100 8.8%

We wrote a little bit about Mike Williams earlier in this article, but he’s in line for a massive day this week against the Browns. Not only does he have the history of dominating them last year, but this year he gets to have a significant size advantage against Denzel Ward who he should have 6 inches and close to 40 pounds on. Ward has struggled mightily this season and has always struggled with big physical receivers which should be in line for Williams to have a massive day. He will likely be the player that I will be the most overweight on this slate.

Value Plays

Josh Reynolds- $4,900, 7.1%

If Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, Josh Reynolds immediately skyrockets to the top play of the week. His roster percentage will likely follow as well, but last week Reynolds even as a tertiary option behind T.J. Hockenson and the running game with Jamaal Williams he was able to amount 7 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. If St. Brown does play, Reynolds is still in play as immediately people will be off of him, but we don’t know how healthy St. Brown will be and he could be a decoy much like he was against the Vikings when Reynolds amounted 96 yards. The Lions have very little behind Reynolds due to all of the injuries to D.J. Chark, Quintez Cephus and D.J. Chark.

Zay Jones- $4,200, 7.4%

Zay Jones was a surprise scratch last week, but appears to be good to go this week. At just $4,100 against the Texans, Jones should be in an opportunity to once again produce as we saw two weeks ago where he had 10 receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown. Jones is averaging 6.3 receptions per game and does pose some level of risk, but if you’re looking to punt at the wide receiver position this week, Jones is one of the few players on this slate that offers an upside at the wide receiver position sub-4,500 as DraftKings has done a good job pricing this slate in making it difficult to find that bottom of the barrel player that we typically look for which is sub 4k.

Tight End

High-End Play

None-

This slate has no tight end that is above $5,200 as it is missing Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. George Kittle simply has not been consistent enough to justify paying above $5k for him this week.

Value Plays

David Njoku- $3,800 5.2%

We’ve talked a little bit about the Browns Chargers game and the potential expectation that it could be the highest scoring game of the week. David Njoku over the last two weeks is finally paying off his contract extension that the Browns surprisingly gave him this offseason. Njoku was on the field for just 60% of the plays in 2021, but is on the field 90% of the plays this season as the team let Austin Hooper go, and the wide receivers in Cleveland have struggled mightily in Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell. This is a team that relies heavily on their tight ends and we’ve seen have back to back solid performances averaging 7 receptions for 81 yards while scoring one touchdown over those two games. Njoku had a career-high game last year against the Chargers as he had 149 yards and a touchdown in that contest.

T.J. Hockenson- $4,900 7.7%

This one seems like a bit of a mis-price from DraftKings and surprisingly the roster percentage hasn’t reflected the mis-pricing so far. What likely is occurring here is that there is still some weight factored in that Amon-Ra St. Brown will play which is fair as Hockenson becomes a much weaker play if St. Brown were to be active. If St. Brown is not active, we once again could see Hockenson be the top target in Detroit given all of the receiver issues that they currently have with D.J. Chark and Quintez Cephus also out. Hockenson was unbelievable last week amassing 179 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Lions loss to Seattle.

Fade

Tyler Higbee- $4,300 17.2%

Tyler Higbee has become a reliable option for the Rams this season as he has topped 60 yards in each of the last three games. He’s essentially become the Rams number two option this season due to the inability of Allen Robinson to get separation and the injury to Van Jefferson. The problem is that he is getting too much love this week, as at 17%, it’s just a crazy number for Higbee given that he has just five red zone targets on the season compared to a player like Zach Ertz who already has 10. The other concern for Higbee this week is the matchup, as based on the Cowboys pass rush, the Rams are likely going to be forced to keep Higbee in to block or chip at Micah Parsons far more than in a game against a team that does not have an elite pass rush.