Conference Championship Games
- San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 46.5 - Spread Eagles -2.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chiefs -1
49ers at Eagles
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 4th
- Dropback EPA: 3rd
- Rush EPA: 4th
- Points per game: 6th
- Yards per game: 5th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 3rd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 2nd
- Points per game allowed: 1st
- Yards per game allowed: 1st
- Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+173)
- Offensive Rankings
- Eagles:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 3rd
- Dropback EPA: 6th
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Points per game: 3rd
- Yards per game: 3rd
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 2nd
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 1st
- Rush EPA Allowed: 14th
- Points per game allowed: 8th
- Yards per game allowed: 2nd
- Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+133)
- Offensive Rankings
This game is about to be a slobber knocker. Both offenses rank top five in numerous statistics and both defenses rank top three in important areas. This is anyone's game but the Eagles are playing at home, were the best team in the regular season, and just demolished the Giants 38-7 last week. Jalen Hurts ($7,200) looked healthy last week and should be all systems go on Sunday. That's exciting since Hurts led all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (28) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season. Hurts' advantage in this tough matchup is his rushing ability. Hurts ran for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 15 games during the regular season and he added another rushing score last week in the Divisional Round.
A.J. Brown ($7,000) was a disappointment last week, catching only 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards. It's time to pounce in tournaments and roster him this week. The 49ers defense, for as dominant as it has been, has struggled with containing alpha wide receivers on the outside. Look for Nick Sirianni's offensive game plan to lean into the pass and funnel targets toward Brown. Let's zoom out and remember Brown ranked 17th in targets per game (8.4), sixth in receiving yards per game (87.6), and third in receiving touchdowns (11) in the regular season. DeVonta Smith ($6,800) is a stud in his own right and should also be a major benefactor of a pass-heavy approach. Smith caught seven more passes than Brown during the regular season in the same number of games and also outproduced him in the Divisional Round. Dallas Goedert ($4,100) is an affordable way to gain access to this passing game with their projected pass-heavy approach. Goedert really shouldn't be this cheap. He's a full-time player and one of the most talented tight ends in football. And since there are only two games on this slate, Quez Watkins ($3,100) and Zach Pascal ($3,000) each deserve a mention. Pascal actually played on more snaps last week than Watkins (24 to 22) but Watkins caught 18 more passes than Pascal during the regular season. Both are in play in large field tournaments.
Miles Sanders ($5,200), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800), and Boston Scott ($4,600) are all fades. They share time, are rarely targeted, and have a tough matchup against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL.
For the 49ers, Brock Purdy's ($5,300) streak of seven straight games throwing for two or more touchdown passes came to an end last week when he failed to throw any touchdowns. The rookie Purdy will be tested in a hostile environment on the road against a good Eagles defense. Prdy isn't an exciting play but due to DraftKings pricing Purdy much cheaper than the other quarterbacks, he's back in play this week after being recommended as a total fade during the Divisional Round. Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) is dealing with a minor calf injury but he'll be good to go against a defense that can be attacked against the run. McCaffrey ranked fourth in the league in opportunities per game (21.2) during the regular season and has monster receiving upside in this matchup. Meanwhile, Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) is a total fade due to his elevated price tag.
George Kittle ($5,200), Deebo Samuel ($5,700), and Brandon Aiyuk ($4,400) are all in play. Aiyuk has a tough matchup on the outside against Darius Slay and James Bradberry so let's stick with Samuel and Kittle attacking the middle, which is the more vulnerable aspect of the Eagles defense. Samuel is a fantastic tournament play after a down game last week, especially priced at just $5,700. Jauan Jennings ($3,300) should also see more favorable matchups in the middle of the field and played on 45% of the offensive snaps last week. He's in play in large field tournaments.
Bengals at Chiefs
- Bengals:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 4th
- Rush EPA: 17th
- Points per game: 7th
- Yards per game: 8th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 1st
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed: 6th
- Points per game allowed: 6th
- Yards per game allowed: 16th
- Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+96)
- Offensive Rankings
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Rush EPA: 17th
- Points per game: 1st
- Yards per game: 1st
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 9th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 9th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 11th
- Points per game allowed: 16th
- Yards per game allowed: 11th
- Point Differential Ranking: 4th (+127)
- Offensive Rankings
This is the game to grab most of your exposure from. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,600) vs. Joe Burrow ($6,800). The two best quarterbacks in the NFL going at it with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Bengals have won 10 straight games and Burrow has been dialed in throughout that stretch. Last week was a great example of this as he thoroughly outplayed Josh Allen, dissecting the Bills defense for 242 passing yards and 2 pass touchdowns in the snow. Burrow should remain hot as his matchup against the Chiefs defense shouldn't scare us. However, Cincinnati's banged-up offensive line will once again have to hold up against CHris Jones and company. They have a tougher task this week than they did last Sunday.
JaMarr Chase ($7,600) ranked second in the league in targets per game (11) during the regular season and has seen target totals of 15, 13, 11, 13, 12, and 8 over his past six games. He's scored in three straight and five of his past six. Chase is right there with A.J. Brown as the WR1 on this slate. And then there's Tee Higgins ($5,400), who has been quiet for a month. Higgins is one of the best tournament plays of the entire weekend as by now, many have forgotten what an 8-catch, 128 yard, 1-touchdown game from Higgins feels like. That's exactly the stat line he produced back in Week 16. The favorable fantasy environment and matchup could produce another big game for Higgins. But the thesis behind the Higgins play also makes sense for Tyler Boyd ($3,800). He's a sneaky fun tournament play, especially thanks to his extremely affordable price. While everyone flocks to Hayden Hurst ($3,000) due to his touchdown catch last week, pivot to Boyd instead at a similar cost.
Joe Mixon ($6,500) had a great game last week. He turned 23 total opportunities into 123 total yards and 1 touchdown. Yet, he played just nine more snaps than Samaje Perine ($4,500). Mixon is a fade as recency bias will cause his ownership to be too high.
For the Chiefs, Mahomes shouldn't be discounted despite his sprained ankle. He's the best quarterback on the planet and the chess match between him and Bengals Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo will be must-see television on Sunday. Mahomes is about to win the MVP award after leading his offense to the top ranking in EPA/Play, Dropback EPA, points per game, and yards per game. Travis Kelce ($7,800) led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338), and receiving touchdowns (12) in the regular season. In fact, across the entire league, he ranked 11th in targets per game (9.1), ninth in catches per game (6.5), 10th in receiving yards per game (81.3), and second in receiving touchdowns (12). So it should've come as no surprise to anyone when Kelce caught 14 of 17 targets for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Divisional Round. Expect Anarumo and Cinicnnati's defense to mitigate Kelce but nobody can completely stop him. With Mahomes likely operating as more of an in-the-pocket quarterback this week due to his sprained ankle and the Bengals game planning to slow down Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster sticks out like a sore thumb as an incredible tournament play. He's the only other full-time player in this offense that catches passes from Mahomes but he's been quiet for a month straight. Take advantage of the recency bias as he saw eight or more targets in eight different games this season. Mecole Hardman ($3,500) becomes an interesting tournament play if he suits up. Kadarius Toney ($3,700) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,600) are in play in large field tournaments.
This is the perfect time to play Jerick McKinnon ($5,400). Don't let one down game allow you to forget how integral McKinnon had become in the Chiefs' passing game. He had scored a touchdown in six straight games and nine total touchdowns over that stretch prior to last week. Eight of those touchdowns were receptions from Mahomes. McKinnon is the much-preferred play over Isiah Pacheco ($5,300). Pacheco is a fade because he'll be too high owned after his performance last week.
Key Injuries
- Bengals LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa, RT Lael Collins all OUT - Upgrade Bengals' short passing game, which helps JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, and either Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelcce, Jerick McKinnon, and JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and either DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert