Buy Low Trade Targets for 2023

The Fantasy Football playoffs are right around the corner. In dynasty leagues, this creates the best opportunity to acquire players, especially if your league has a trade deadline, for teams that didn’t make the playoffs. This isn’t a time to lick your wounds and think about what if. Instead, it’s time to lay foundations for your playoff team for next season. Many teams haven’t put in the time to look into situations, free agency, or the NFL Draft, and that creates an opportunity for you to capitalize.

The following players are buy-low candidates who will likely increase their value for the 2023 season. However, each league is its own economy, and every team owner has their own opinions. Don’t overpay. Most of the players listed aren’t going to feel good acquiring, and that’s the point. Fantasy football is about points and not about feelings, which is why you’re going to gain value.

Quarterbacks

Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

After winning the Super Bowl, I don’t think anyone could’ve imagined this level of collapse from the Rams in 2022. Stafford came into the season injured and only became more injured as the year went on, which concluded with a season-ending trip to the injured reserve list. Stafford had his worst QB rating since the 2014 season and saw his passing touchdowns drop by 31. The Rams will be better next year, and Stafford should have better health. Now a chance exists that Stafford can’t recover, but that should be priced into his value. Stafford is a better buy in superflex leagues than standard.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals may be moving on from Kliff Kingsbury this offseason, and it should be good news for the development of Kyler Murray, who has the worst passer rating of his entire career. Murray is a more talented player than many realize, and a new coach should cater the offense to his strengths. If this happens, then we’re seeing one of the best buy-low opportunities of Murray’s career.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

This is one of those situations I described in the introduction that doesn’t feel good, but the value is there to be had. Mike White, just like Bailey Zappe, came back to earth after a short run of success. He threw two interceptions that could have easily been more and posted a 59.8 QB rating. This week the Jets play the Buffalo Bills, and White could have a similar type of game. If that’s the case, they could return to Wilson to end the season playing the soft defenses of Detroit and Jacksonville. Wilson is going to get another opportunity in his time with the Jets, and they have lots of wide receiver talent to help him gain confidence. In superflex leagues, Wilson could be acquired cheaply, which is a low-risk proposition.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Here’s another Wilson situation that feels wrong to acquire, but it’s the best opportunity. Wilson’s contract gave him $161 million dollars guaranteed, which means the Broncos can’t move on from him. The most likely scenarios of moving on from Wilson would be from 2025-2027. The fantasy football community has lost hope, which makes his price cheap in a trade. He earned a 99 QB rating or higher in two of his last three games. In the last four seasons, Wilson earned a 103 QB rating or higher and never earned lower than a 92 QB rating over a season. Things will improve in Denver and for Wilson, but will you get him on your team in time?

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

The first game back for Deshaun Watson didn’t meet expectations with a 53.4 QB rating and 131 passing yards. Many should’ve expected him to have rust because he hasn’t played in a regular season game for a year and a half. However, Watson was a top-three quarterback in the last season he played football. Whether he returns to that form in 2022 or 2023 is irrelevant because he should return to top form soon. Some may not want to own him due to the off-the-field stuff. In the fantasy football lens, Watson is very valuable, and this might be the last time to buy low on Watson.

Running Backs

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris went from a rookie darling to a sophomore-season panic for many people. The foot injury to start the season as Harris averaged fewer than four yards per carry in six of his initial seven games. However, he’s averaged four yards per carry or better in four of his last five games. In those contests, Harris has earned his three best rushing yardage totals on the season and three of his four rushing touchdowns. The arrow is pointing up for Harris, but have his owners caught on? He’s a big back who can play all three downs on the field and near the goal line. I would generate some offers or conversations to see the price tag for Najee Harris in your leagues.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

While James Cook has had double-digit carry games in two of the last three weeks, Devin Singletary has had them in six of his last seven games. Cook getting more involved rushing and taking over most of the pass catching work is a positive trend for his fantasy value. But the main reason he’s a buy-low is that Singletary is a free agent this offseason. While it’s possible he could re-sign with the Bills, my guess is they reinvest that money into other parts of their team. This would create a huge opportunity for Cook, and the fantasy football value would follow.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

It was a night and day difference comparing the end-of-season A.J. Dillon to the version that played most of the 2022 season. However, he’s improved over the past two weeks, which instill confidence in what we saw during the 2021 season. But the reason to buy Dillon has to do with Aaron Jones. Green Bay is around $11 million dollars over the projected salary cap for the 2023 season with only 38 players rostered. They’ll have to make room to fill in gaps on the team, draft picks, and get under the salary cap. If the Packers release Jones, they’ll save $10.4 million dollars, and he’s 28 years old. The odds are in Dillon’s favor to be the starting back in 2023.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, Chicago Bears

Justin Fields has continued to progress as a passer during the 2022 season, and being tied to a young star quarterback has been an effective fantasy strategy for wide receivers. Mooney and Claypool are both young and talented and should receive contract extensions to play with Fields during the primes of their careers. The biggest concern this offseason would be Chicago acquiring a better wide receiver talent to overshadow them, and I only see one scenario where that happens. The Bears currently hold the second overall pick, and they won’t take a wide receiver with that selection. Their next pick is in the mid to late second round. The wide receivers that are more talented than these two will be gone between those two picks. The NFL wide receivers who will become free agents aren’t very talented. The one scenario where Chicago adds an elite player at the position is trading down from the 1.02 pick, potentially multiple trade downs, to acquire multiple picks in this range to select a wide receiver. So why take the gamble on Mooney or Claypool? Their prices are low right now with both having underwhelming 2022 seasons. Mooney ended the season on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and Claypool hasn’t played great in Chicago after the trade. Both are perfect candidates to see a rise in value this offseason.

Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

Just like I stated above, “being tied to a young star QB has been an effective fantasy strategy” applies even more so to Patrick Mahomes II because he’s a Hall of Fame player. Moore’s rookie season has had ups and downs, but he’s seeing more playing time lately. His athleticism and skill set could be a great match with Mahomes. While Kansas City did trade for Kadarius Toney, they’ll have Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster set to become unrestricted free agents. Moore could see only Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his main competitions at WR in 2023, which is great for his fantasy football possibilities.

John Metchie, Houston Texans
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers

I’m grouping these players together for three main reasons they share in common. First, they’re all very young players who likely have their best football ahead of themselves. The most growth for players is between their rookie and second years in the NFL. Secondly, they all haven’t had fast starts to their NFL careers for a wide range of reasons. Which makes their value lower than it was when the season started. Lastly, all of these players have the opportunity for a quarterback upgrade in the offseason. Houston is likely to draft a quarterback with the first pick. Most of these teams would be in the running to either trade up or draft a quarterback. These teams also can trade for a veteran quarterback or sign one in free agency. It’s likely that a minimum of three of these players have a quarterback upgrade, which would be massive for their fantasy football outcomes.

Tight Ends

Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants

While Bellinger has been banged up his rookie season, he has also shown some promise on the field, which is rare for rookie tight ends. Bellinger doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he could be a cheaply acquired TE2.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Nobody expected the crash-landing sophomore campaign that Kyle Pitts endured in 2022, which ended in an injury. He’s an elite athlete who had one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end. He should have a quarterback upgrade for 2023, and they can’t throw the ball less than they did in 2022. All signs point to this being the lowest value to acquire Pitts.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Since arriving in Minnesota, Hockenson has averaged eight targets per game, which equates to 136 over an entire season. The Vikings are featuring Hockenson much more than he was in Detroit, and his fantasy value has risen because of it. Some people might not realize the uptick in production.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Two reasons why David Njoku is a good buy low. First, getting paired with Deshaun Watson is a huge bonus when they both have long-term contracts. Second, Njoku had a very good stretch this year of 58 or more receiving yards over a five-game stretch before an injury sidelined him for a few games. We’ll call this the breakout we’ve all been waiting on for Njoku. The numbers will only rise with Watson now that Njoku has shown he can be a very good tight end in this league.

Irv Smith, Minnesota Vikings

Irv Smith had a lot of promise coming into the NFL. He was a productive tight end from Alabama with good athleticism. His usage and lack of health led to his demise in Minnesota. However, Smith is a free agent and will end up on a new team for the 2023 season. He’s a very cheap lottery ticket for you to acquire right now.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Just like Irv Smith, Gesicki is a free agent after this season and will likely not be returning to Miami. He hasn’t been utilized in this new offense like he has in the past and will want to be featured. This creates a good buy low as other people may not realize he’s a free agent to be with an uptick in production on the horizon.