16 AFC Dynasty Questions Answered

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the summer, we did 32 storylines that would significantly impact dynasty leagues for years to come. After the 2021 season, we revisit the 16 AFC questions. You can find the NFC revisit here.

When will Josh Allen sign his megadeal?

Josh Allen signed his six-year, $258,000,000 contract extension with $150,000,000 in guarantees in August. The deal puts Allen under Buffalo’s contractual control through his age-32 season in 2028. 2025 would be the first time Allen’s cap savings would surpass his dead money and the first year where his salary is not guaranteed.

What does the Jets passing game look like?

The Jets ranked 20th in passing yards, with 208.3 per game. Corey Davis missed 8 games with injuries, while Elijah Moore led the team in targets (77) and yards (538). A late-season breakout from Braxton Berrios could help fill the void of Jamison Crowder, the team’s leader in receptions (51), should Crowder move on in free agency. Denzel Mims played in only 11 games, finishing tenth in targets on the team and is firmly on the bust track. Wilson finished worst in the league in completion percentage over expectations (-10.3), and will need a step forward in 2022.

Is Tua Tagovailoa the Miami Dolphins' answer at quarterback?

Tua Tagovailoa took a small step forward in completion percentage over expectation (+0.9) in 2021. Head Coach Brian Flores was fired after the season, which has been speculated as a potential signal the Dolphins want to continue investing in Tagovailoa as a franchise quarterback. On the season, Tagovailoa finished 26th in total points and 27th in fantasy points per game. The offense fueled a major breakout by Jaylen Waddle, who broke the rookie reception record (104) en route to a top 12 seasonal finish and will be a critical piece of Tagovailoa’s development in year three.

When will Mac Jones start for the New England Patriots?

Mac Jones started from Week 1 and made Cam Newton expendable. This helped Patriots running backs as New England ranked 10th in rushing rate in the red zone (53.7%), and second-lowest in quarterback run rate in the red zone (4.6%). This led to the most non-quarterback rushing touchdowns (22) in the league after Cam Newton dominated in the red zone in 2020. Damien Harris capitalized, scored 15 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most in the league while finishing in the top 20 in scoring on the season.

Will Baker Mayfield sign an extension with the Cleveland Browns?

Baker Mayfield has not signed an extension and had a disappointing fourth season. Mayfield finished 25th at the position in seasonal points and 30th in points per game. Mayfield is expected to play out his fifth-year option in what will be a must-watch in 2022.

Is Joe Burrow healthy?

After ending last season with a torn ACL, Joe Burrow returned to the lineup finishing in the top 12 in scoring and leading the league in yards per attempt. Burrow’s performance has reset the Cincinnati franchise and a Super Bowl appearance while fueling a WR24 finish from Tee Higgins and a WR5 finish from JaMarr Chase. Burrow will need to reduce the number of sacks he takes, but his 2021 season is a positive progression after his 2020 injury.

What will the Pittsburgh offense look like?

The Pittsburgh offense threw for only 222.2 yards per game, which was the 15th best mark in the league. However, Pittsburgh was 4th in passing attempts per game (39.1) but 30th in yards per attempt (6.0) ahead of only Carolina and the New York Giants. Diontae Johnson finished as WR8 while Chase Claypool disappointed with a WR38 finish. The retirement and replacement of Ben Roethlisberger loom large over Pittsburgh’s future.

When will Lamar Jackson sign an extension?

Jackson did not sign an extension yet and played the worst season of his career as a passer. Jackson saw a jump in passing yards per game to the highest of his career (240.2) but the worst quarterback rating (87.0) lowest QBR (51.0), and worst adjusted yards per attempt (6.9) of his three years as a starter. Jackson missed five games, his first extended absence during his career. Jackson finished as QB15 in season-long fantasy points and QB7 in points per game. His contract status will be a major watch in the offseason as he could play out his fifth-year option.

What is the status of Deshaun Watson?

Deshaun Watson was a season-long gameday inactive and was not moved at the trade deadline. The new calendar year could create cap flexibility along with more interested suitors. Watson’s criminal investigation and civil lawsuits still loom, but Watson’s market should be robust when the situation resolves.

Which Carson Wentz will we see in 2021?

Carson Wentz disappointed at the end of 2021. Wentz finished the season with 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, but more advanced metrics highlighted his struggles. Wentz averaged 6.9 yards per attempt which ranked 20th in the league, while Wentz had a -2.3 completion percentage over expectation. Head Coach Frank Reich declined to commit to Wentz as the 2022 starter while Owner Jim Irsay has been noncommittal at best. The Colts could save 13.3 million dollars of his 28.3 million dollar cap hit in 2022 by cutting Wentz.

How will the Tennessee offense look in the post-Arthur Smith era?

The Tennessee offense went through big transitions in 2021. A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all spent time on injured reserve, leaving Ryan Tannehill with one of the worst supporting casts in the league. Tannehill managed a QB13 finish despite the offense’s limitations. Tennessee kept a similar balance, with a designed pass rate of 52.6%, the 4th lowest designed pass rate in the league.

What impact will new Head Coach Urban Meyer have on the Jacksonville offense?

Urban Meyer’s tenure as Jacksonville’s head coach will go as a hands-down failure. Meyer struggled to get a grasp of the NFL game which led Jacksonville’s offense to grind to a halt. Meyer hands off an offense to Doug Pederson that in many ways leaves more questions than when he was given the reigns. Travis Etienne missed the season from a Lisfranc injury but should return in 2022. James Robinson suffered a season-ending Achilles injury so his role will likewise be a question. Trevor Lawrence’s season was a disappointment, finishing as QB22, with more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12).

Can Clyde Edwards-Helaire take a step forward in the Kansas City offense?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a disappointment in his second season. Edwards-Helaire finished as RB44 in only 10 games, and averaged 12.0 points per game, good for 29th at the position. On the season, Darrell Williams ended up as the leading rusher for the Kansas City offense. On a per-game basis, Edwards-Helaire averaged 51.7 yards per game in only 10 games. Notably, Darrel Williams had more than twice the receiving production (26.6 receiving yards per game) than Edwards-Helaire (12.9).

Who is the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos?

The Broncos chose Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock. In the 14 games Bridgewater played, he threw for 218 yards per game and 18 touchdowns. Lock started the final three games of the season, averaging 187 yards per game while throwing only one touchdown. On the season, Denver ranked 19th in passing yards and should be in line for a quarterback improvement in the offseason.

What is the role of Kenyan Drake in the Las Vegas offense?

Kenyan Drake only managed 30 receptions and 291 yards in 12 games, while Josh Jacobs managed a career-high in receptions (54) and receiving yards (348). Jacobs finished fifth at the position in receptions, which fueled an RB12 finish despite a career-worst in rushing yards (872). Drake has 5.5 million dollars guaranteed in 2022, and the Raiders would save only 2.5 million dollars of his 8 million dollar cap hit in 2022 by cutting him.

Can Austin Ekeler return to health?

In July, our question on Austin Ekeler was could he stay healthy. In the article, we wrote, “If healthy, Ekeler has an RB1 overall finish in his range of outcomes.” Ekeler just missed an RB1 finish in points per game with 21.6 points per game behind Jonathan Taylor’s 22.2 points per game. Ekeler’s RB2 finish in seasonal points is his second top 4 finish at the position in the past three years. Ekeler finished the season with 70 receptions, just behind Najee Harris’s position leading reception total of 74. If Ekeler maintains health, he maintains RB1 overall firmly in his range of outcomes.