15 Deep Sleepers at Wide Receiver

Footballguys Staff's 15 Deep Sleepers at Wide Receiver Footballguys Staff Published 08/25/2022

Links to similar discussions on other positions:


A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). To point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.

Here are the players who received the most votes:

And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

Player Receiving 5 Votes

Josh Palmer, LA Chargers

Ben Cummins: Josh Palmer is the most valuable wide receiver handcuffs. Keenan Allen missed one game last season, and in that contest, Palmer played on 87% of the offensive snaps catching five of seven targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. And early reports this offseason already have Palmer as the favorite for the WR3 job in one of the league's best and most aggressive offenses. His combination of standalone and contingency value is too good to pass up.

Jason Wood: No team uses 3- and 4-WR sets more than the Chargers, and Palmer may have a better all-around game than Mike Williams, despite the massive difference in their contractual status. If Williams or Keenan Allen miss time, don't be surprised if Palmer becomes a trusted Justin Herbert target.

Christian Williams: The transition from Jalen Guyton to Josh Palmer quietly happened over the last five weeks of the 2021 season. During that time, Palmer out-snapped Guyton 66% to 33%, out-targeted him 27 to 16, and out-caught him 18 to 13. The Chargers operated out of 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) 64% of the time last year, and the odds that Palmer has standalone flex value without injury are high. Additionally, factoring in the upside of a Mike Williams or Keenan Allen injury makes Palmer the easiest draft pick at his current ADP of WR75.

Andy Hicks: Josh Palmer had a patchy rookie season, but the light seemed to come on late in the 2021 season. An excellent training camp and further development through the offseason all point to Josh Palmer being a key component for Justin Herbert in 2022 and beyond. With Keenan Allen over 30 and Mike Williams inconsistent, Palmer is in a great position to become one of those fantasy treasures that seem to come out of nowhere.

Sam Wagman: Down the stretch last season, Palmer unseated Jalen Guyton as the WR3 for the Chargers and was playing more snaps by season’s end. The Chargers frequently run 3- and 4-WR sets and will pass the ball a ton, so Palmer should have some value at the back end of your drafts. If, by some chance, one of Mike Williams or Keenan Allen misses time, Palmer would be an automatic WR3 with heavy upside.

Players Receiving 4 Votes

Nico Collins, Houston

Jason Wood: Collins' rookie numbers weren't memorable (33 receptions for 446 yards and 1 touchdown), but he missed nearly four weeks at the beginning of the season and was behind the curve. He ended up being on the field more than any Texans receiver down the stretch and enters Year 2 with the coaches' and quarterback's confidence. At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he has the size and aggressiveness to pair perfectly with Brandin Cooks on the outside.

Christian Williams: With the news of John Metchie throwing a wrench in the Texans' plans at receiver, Collins should build upon his fine, albeit uninspired, rookie campaign. Collins is becoming a favorite of quarterback Davis Mills. The young wide receiver is the second target behind Brandin Cooks, and his route-running ability has improved significantly. Collins could offer league-winning upside if there is an injury to Brandin Cooks, but his weekly value should be enough to keep him a valuable bench piece.

Will Grant: Collins had a quiet rookie season with just 33 receptions for 446 yards and a touchdown. But the Houston wide receiver corps was a mess last season after Brandon Cooks, and that should hopefully be settled with Collins as the solid #2. He has good size and strength to play opposite Cooks with minimal competition from anyone else, Collins will have every opportunity to take a big step forward in his second year. The Texans will not win many games this season, and they'll be throwing the ball a lot to catch up. Collins could be a nice addition to your fantasy team with a late-round flyer.

Jeff Haseley: Brandin Cooks may be the top receiving threat in Houston, but Nico Collins will have a role, and he has the ideal size to produce in the red zone at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. His involvement may be greater than expected with the loss of John Metchie III for the season.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh

Ben Cummins: I loved Pickens' collegiate tape and saw the potential for a true alpha No. 1 wide receiver should everything come together. And reports have stated Pickens would've gone a lot higher in the NFL Draft were it not for an ACL injury that cut short his junior season. The buzz during training camp is deafening, and Pickens caught a beautiful touchdown in his first preseason action. I'm fully bought in on Pickens producing as a rookie.

Jason Wood: The quarterback situation is an overhang, but those who thought Pickens would red shirt behind Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool need to reconsider. Claypool appears to be the odd man out, or at least more likely to be a purely complementary option, while Pickens steps into the focal point alongside Johnson. Pickens has made plays nearly every day of camp, and Johnson -- who just signed a massive extension -- is raving about the rookie. Buckle up.

Christian Williams: While many wrote off the Steelers offense before preseason even began due to the quarterbacks, George Pickens has dominated camp. While the offense can't realistically support multiple high-end fantasy options, Pickens is proving himself as the No. 2 option behind only Diontae Johnson. After Chase Claypool's disappointing 2021 and his inevitable move to the big slot role, Pickens could see a higher volume than initially expected. When healthy, he's shown how rewarding that could be for fantasy managers.

Andy Hicks: Not only does Pittsburgh have an excellent record of drafting wide receivers, they often come out and have fantastic rookie seasons. Their most recent successes include Chase Claypool, his nine-touchdown rookie season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who ranked 17th in his debut year. Even Diontae Johnson almost finished as a fantasy starter, despite being raw. George Pickens has first-round grade talent but fell to 52 due to character concerns. This is where you trust that the location fixes issues, coaches well, and produces immediate results. Reports through training camp and preseason make drafting Pickens an almost no-brainer.

Players Receiving 3 Votes

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.

D.J. Chark, Detroit

Will Grant: Chark is a couple of years removed from his surprise 2019 season where he posted 1000 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. He missed most of last season due to an ankle injury, and he's looking to re-start his career in Detroit. Rookie Jameson Williams is the guy everyone is targeting after Amon-Ra St. Brown, but Chark is the veteran who might be the better option. Williams has missed most of camp with his knee injury, and if he remains on the non-football injury list, he'll miss at least the 1st four games of the season. This is the perfect time for Chark to grab a feature role with his new team and he's proving to be a guy who can be plugged into multiple spots and contribute. Skip the rookie pick for now, and if you want the No. 2 guy in Detroit - Chark is your guy.

Andy Hicks: Coming into his fifth season, D.J. Chark still has to prove his worth. Expected to be the focus of boom rookie Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, an early-season injury to Chark ruined a chance at a monster contract that his peers were signing in the offseason. Chark signed a one-year, play and prove it deal on a Lions offense that struggled without a focus. Jameson Williams was drafted, Amon-Ra St.Brown was a surprising rookie last season, and T.J. Hockenson and DeAndre Swift are other potent options. Chark has worked diligently with Jared Goff in the offseason and has glowing reports through training camp and preseason. At his current draft price, Chark should present significant value. If his fitness holds up, he will be a steal.

Jordan McNamara: If you are going to make a bet deep at the wide receiver position, history favors the wide receivers with a prior hit on their resume. Chark qualifies and could step into a sneaky good offense in Detroit and has had consistently positive reviews in training camp. The fact that Jacksonville let Chark walk out the door with such a need at wide receiver is a concern, but it is less important when you are looking for an early reveal on a player like Chark.

Marvin Jones, Jacksonville

Ben Cummins: Despite the additions of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones this offseason, Marvin Jones still projects as a starting outside wide receiver in both two and three-receiver sets. Trevor Lawrence should take a step forward in his sophomore season, especially with Urban Meyer long gone. And the Jaguars will have to throw a ton in a loaded conference. Jones still has at least one more productive season in him.

Gary Davenport: In 2021, Jones led the Jaguars in targets (120), receptions (73), receiving yards (832), and touchdown catches (4). Yet as soon as Jacksonville handed Christian Kirk $18 million a season, the 32-year-old was relegated to the fantasy scrap heap. Those numbers from Jones aren't especially impressive, but they were enough to land him in WR3 territory—the fourth time in the past five seasons that Jones has posted a top-36 finish. Is Kirk more explosive at this point in their respective careers? Duh. But Jones knows what he's doing, he has a year with Trevor Lawrence that Kirk doesn't, and he's not going to see the kind of defensive attention he did a year ago. I'm not usually a big late-round veteran proponent. But for every rule, there's an exception.

Jordan McNamara: Marvin Jones had the second highest market share of red zone targets in the NFL in 2021 (34%). On 18 targets in the red zone, Jones had only 2 touchdowns. The team added Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones, but none of those options could take away Jones's red zone role. If the Jacksonville offense takes a big step forward, Jones has the type of role that could significantly overperform his cost.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay

Ben Cummins: I really liked what I saw on tape from Romeo Doubs, leading me to tweet on May 27th that I expected his ADP to rise between then and the beginning of the season but I never could've predicted just how great of a start Doubs would get. Christian Watson missed valuable time in training camp as he was recently activated from the PUP list. Meanwhile, Doubs has reportedly produced every step of the way, catching a touchdown in his first preseason action and drawing rave reviews from Aaron Rodgers.

Jeff Haseley: The top receiving threat on the Packers is up for grabs, and Doubs is playing his way into an opportunity to earn that role. We should take notice when Aaron Rodgers and other teammates speak highly of a rookie receiver. Doubs is healthy compared to others on the depth chart, and he's making the best of his chance.

WanDale Robinson, NY Giants

Anthony Amico: Robinson was taken in the second round of the NFL Draft and is the first major skill acquisition of the new regime with the Giants. He is on the smaller side but was a true play-maker in college, producing as a two-way running back for two years at Nebraska before becoming Kentucky's featured receiver in 2021. Kenny Golladay was hurt for much of last season and wasn't particularly productive when on it. Sterling Shepard would already be off the team had he not taken a pay cut. The competition for targets here is way softer than one would think, aside from Kadarius Toney, who has struggled to stay on the field in his short NFL career.

Will Grant: There aren't a lot of options for fantasy gold with the Giants this season. But 2nd round rookie Wan'Dale Robinson could have a decent season - especially later in the year. Sterling Shepard is on the PUP list, Kenny Golladay has played 19 games over the last two seasons, and second-year man Kadarius Toney was often injured and barely made it nine games last year. Robinson isn't going to be the primary focus of the offense, but he'll spend time in the slot and won't draw the top defenders to his side of the field. In the open field, his speed and open-field skills could turn into big plays, especially on a team that isn't going to win many games. Robinson will go undrafted in most leagues and he could be a sneaky pick with your last-round pick.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

Robbie Anderson, Carolina

Gary Davenport: Are we sure that Anderson is bad? We certainly weren't a year ago after he caught 95 passes and flirted with 1,100 receiving yards in his first year with the Panthers. But then Sam Darnold showed up, fantasy analysts assumed that Anderson's rapport with Darnold from two years together in New York would carry over, and instead, we got a 48.2 catch percentage and 519 receiving yards. But even in that miserable year, Anderson saw 110 targets. If you believe that Baker Mayfield is an upgrade on Darnold and that Anderson will see triple-digit targets again opposite D.J. Moore, then the odds he rebounds are exponentially higher than the chance he doesn't. Given that he's essentially free in drafts this year, if Anderson can come anywhere close to his 2020 numbers, he'll be one of the steals of the year at the position.

Kendrick Bourne, New England

Sam Wagman: Bourne is such an underrated receiver. Originally thought of as just a deep weapon, Bourne has expanded his abilities in the last couple of seasons. He had an extremely efficient 2021 season, ranking second in yards per target, first in target premium, first in QB rating per target, and second in fantasy points per target. He has become a priority weapon for Mac Jones and should continue to be a jack of all trades for the Patriots this year.

Corey Davis, NY Jets

Andy Hicks: The Jets have a long track record of failing to draft wide receivers that become regular starters. Elijah Moore had a nice rookie season but is undersized and is unlikely to be a true number one. This year's high draft pick, Garrett Wilson, could be that man, but I will believe it when I see it. Until presented with information otherwise, give me Corey Davis over either of the Jet's high draft picks in the last two seasons who have much higher ADPs. Davis, over the first six games last season, had 24 catches for 349 yards and four touchdowns. Then he got injured. His 2021 season would have been high-end fantasy production if we extrapolate his pre-injury numbers. At his current price, give me Davis.

Van Jefferson, LA Rams

Jason Wood: Van Jefferson played more snaps (1,114) last year than Odell Beckham and Robert Woods combined. While the addition of Allen Robinson assures Jefferson starts the year as the No. 3 receiver, we cannot ignore Robinson's spotty durability. If Robinson can't stay on the field, Jefferson is a mature, experienced, trustworthy receiver capable of stepping into a lead role for one of the league's top offenses.

Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo

Jeff Haseley: Isaiah McKenzie is getting regular and nearly equal snaps with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis on the first-team Bills offense. He appears to have the edge as the Buffalo slot receiver role over Jamison Crowder. You want players on good offenses. I can see McKenzie having a Cole Beasley-like season.

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota

Christian Williams: K.J. Osborn somewhat quietly caught 50 balls for 655 yards in 2021, finishing as the WR39 and having multiple lineup-worthy performances. His emergence came with Adam Thielen missing time, but the introduction of Kevin O'Connell gives Osborn weekly upside despite Thielen's return. O'Connell will run more three-receiver sets, and the offense will operate with a pass-first mindset. Osborn should see an uptick in targets based on volume alone, and if he continues his ascension, he could be the best value pick of fantasy drafts.

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis

Sam Wagman: Pierce is a fascinating case. He has superb draft capital after going in the second round of this year’s NFL draft. The Colts also traded for Matt Ryan, which is an upgrade from last year’s Carson Wentz. Pierce should serve as the downfield weapon for this Colts team, a role that has been lacking in the past couple of seasons. With Michael Pittman. as the possession receiver that moves the chains, Pierce should be able to move downfield and win 50/50 matchups with his 6’3 frame and elite 40.5 vertical. He ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash and has very good straight-line speed on tape, so he could smash his ADP in Year 1.

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas

Sam Wagman: Tolbert is purely a projection, but with Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson gone from the team and Michael Gallup still rehabbing his ACL, someone needs to step up and be the WR2 for the Cowboys. Dalton Schultz should be Dak Prescott’s second read, so Tolbert may not have that much pressure as the third option in this offense. He was considered pro-ready coming out of college and looks solid as a foil to CeeDee Lamb on the other perimeter side at 6-foot-3. I like his upside, and he could have a few splash weeks in this high-volume passing offense.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Footballguys Staff

 

Dak's Ceiling, Purdy's Payday, Henry's Reward, Achane's Ambition, and Schedule Fallout: The Fantasy Notebook

Bob Harris

Bob Harris brings you a big-picture look at fantasy-specific news and notes from around the NFL with the Fantasy Notebook.

05/17/25 Read More
 

All 32 NFL Schedule Release Videos Ranked (from worst to best)

Alfredo Brown

Alfredo Brown ranked all 32 of the 2025 NFL Schedule Release videos from worst to best

05/16/25 Read More
 

Tight End Tiers and Value Picks

Sigmund Bloom

Sigmund Bloom runs down the 2025 tight ends by tiers with highlighted value picks

05/15/25 Read More
 

Underdog ADP Movement: How Best-Ball ADP Is Changing

Clayton Gray

Underdog ADP: A look at the current state of Best-Ball ADP and how it is moving.

05/18/25 Read More
 

A Best Ball Draft Strategy Based on NFL Fantasy Playoff Matchups

Jeff Bell

Jeff Bell creates a road map to generate a correlated fantasy playoff roster.

05/16/25 Read More
 

IDP Impact of the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

Gary Davenport

Gary Davenport looks at the IDP implications of the 2025 NFL schedule

05/16/25 Read More