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Undervalued Players
12 Quarterbacks
11 Tight Ends
28 Wide Receivers
25 Running Backs
Overrated Players
10 Quarterbacks
12 Tight Ends
23 Wide Receivers
25 Running Backs
A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver
Andy Hicks: The departure of Noah Fant and the arrival of Russell Wilson opens up a huge opportunity at the tight end position in Denver. Although Denver used a reasonably high pick on a rookie at the position in Greg Dulcich, this is a position where little should be expected of a player just coming out of college. Albert Okwuegbunam will be in his third year and has flashed elite athletic potential. Add in opportunity, even more so with the Tim Patrick injury and although there is a risk, especially with the new coaching staff, the current price is worth the upside.
Matt Waldman: Okwuegbunam has TE1 upside and could emerge as such this year because of his red-zone prowess and Russell Wilson's skill with seam routes. He's a speedy player with proven NFL-caliber contested-catch skills and an underrated feel for underneath routes. Rookie option Greg Dulcich could factor early in the Denver offense as a heavily schemed speedster in the open field, but not enough for him to overtake the veteran. Okwuegbunam's blocking is far superior. This will not only keep him on the field, but it will also lead to some excellent play-action opportunities, which is a staple of Wilson's game.
Will Grant: Russel Wilson knows how to keep his tight ends involved in the offense, especially in the red zone. Okwuegbunam is a big, physical receiver who also excels at blocking. He'll be on the field a lot this season, and if he can build chemistry with Russel Wilson, Okwuegbunam could turn into a solid fantasy tight end. Rookie Greg Dulcich could see some action and take away a few catches but the upside for Okwuegbunam was Noah Fant leaving for Seattle. Keep an eye on the pre-season to see how this shakes out, but I'm betting Okwugbunam starts off strong. The up-tick in stats make him a legitimate fantasy sleeper - especially at the start of the season.
Ben Cummins: Albert Okwuegbunam caught 23 touchdowns in three collegiate seasons and has been efficient so far early in his NFL career. With Russell Wilson brought in and Tim Patrick out for the season, Okwuegbunam has extreme touchdown upside, which is exactly what we’re looking for at the tight end position.
Sam Wagman: Okwuegbunam has had a slow start to his career, but he gets a unique opportunity this season. Now that Tim Patrick is out for the season, he gets the chance to scoop up a solid share of the 175 vacated targets that Patrick and Noah Fant have left behind. He ranks fifth in Yards per Route Run over the last two years among tight ends and ranked fourth in Yards after Catch per reception last season. He will see a solid role.
Jordan McNamara: There are two types of bets to make deep at the tight end position: elite volume or elite efficiency. In his limited sample size, Okwuegbunam has top 10% production in efficiency metrics which could signal a breakout. Through two seasons of limited sample size, he very much looks like a player who could be a star. Okwuegbunam's preseason usage has been a concern, but he is cheap enough to make a bet on an elite profile.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Evan Engram, Jacksonville
Christian Williams: Evan Engram's career has been a rollercoaster, but one thing has remained constant: targets come his way. Engram has been one of the more versatile pass-catching tight ends, consistently lining up wide or in the slot to create mismatches with defensive backs. Doug Pederson has always utilized tight ends efficiently, with his starter finishing no lower than TE6 in his first five years as head coach in Philadelphia. Engram isn't Zach Ertz, but if he can show Trevor Lawrence his hands are reliable, he certainly could continue his path of high target shares and be a steal at his ADP of TE23.
Chad Parsons: The Jaguars are one of the breakout offense possibilities this season after the Urban Meyer stink has cleared the air. Engram is on a one-year deal without a strong WR1 presence on the team. If Engram is not blocking or running five-year out routes as much as his frustrating closing years with the Giants, a return to the top-12 is firmly within the range of outcomes.
Kevin Coleman: Evan Engram is one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL that has never quite had the breakout career many hoped for after his impressive rookie season with the Giants. Engram has dealt with injuries, and poor quarterback play his entire career. Fast forward to 2022, and Engram is playing on a new team with a head coach who can get the most out of him in Doug Pederson. Pederson’s features a heavy dose of “12 personnel.” During his last two seasons as a head coach, Pederson’s teams finished second and first in the league of two-tight end usage. The targets and usage will be there for Engram to smash his ADP.
Gary Davenport: Once upon a time, Engram was a fantasy darling—a young field-stretcher who could (in theory) post the numbers that make managers do cartwheels. But while there were flashes, potential never met production, and now that Engram is in Jacksonville, he's been relegated to afterthought status. But what if Engram got to play with a quarterback who could deliver an accurate pass? On an offense where he will be single-covered most of the time? For a coach that has shown a propensity in the past to take advantage of mismatches over the middle? What if he was less bust and more misused? Why do I keep asking questions? He's free in drafts. He was drafted in the first round for a reason. Engram is a no-risk, all-reward play as the backup to a high-end tight end or for managers who punt the position.
Jordan McNamara: Jacksonville did a lot of work to improve their offseason by adding Doug Pederson as head coach, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones at wide receiver, and some offensive line improvements. While Kirk and Jones are fine players, neither is a true WR1 in an offense, which gives Evan Engram a great opportunity. Two things about Pederson are important: first, he has a strong track record with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia, and second, he played Engram twice a year during their NFC East matchups. All these factors could allow Engram to return to his rookie season production levels and potentially lead the team in targets.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Robert Tonyan Jr, Green Bay
Jason Wood: Tonyan's 2020 breakout was driven entirely but by an absurdly high touchdown rate (11 TDs on 59 targets), which is why he was a fade last year. Those who faded him were served well as he struggled in the first half before tearing his ACL. But with Davante Adams gone and Tonyan looking like a sure bet to be 100% for the regular season, Aaron Rodgers will need targets he trusts, particularly in the red zone. Tonyan is a good bet for 7+ touchdowns.
Will Grant: Tonyan has a fantastic 2020 season but fell back to earth last season with an injury-shortened disappointing 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Going into 2022, there's bound to be an overcorrection on him, and we're seeing that now. Will he storm back into fantasy stardom with another 10+ receiving touchdown season? Probably not. But Tonyan is young enough to take a chance on with a late-round flyer. Given the question marks around the wide receivers after the departure of Davante Adams, Tonyan may be that safety blanket that Aaron Rodgers needs to keep the chains moving.
Ben Cummins: Reports regarding Robert Tonyan Jr’s ACL recovery have been positive all summer, and he was recently activated from the PUP list. He caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, he’s paired with the back-to-back MVP, and the Packers will need him without Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Sam Wagman: Everyone seems to be throwing Tonyan to the side. Regression was inevitable last year after posting over a 20% touchdown rate in 2020 — 11 scores on 52 receptions. Then he not only started slow but also tore his ACL, and the season for him was over. With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, Aaron Rodgers needs someone to trust in the passing game. It stands on Tonyan, who is on track to return by the start of the season, to pick up the slack. He has the opportunity and the ability to put up a TE1 season once again.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
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