#Trendspotting: Week 9

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Adjusting for Schedules
• Running Back Funnels

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

More fun with targets per route run: Jarvis Landry edition

28.5% — 2020, without OBJ
29.6% — 2021, all routes
34% — 2021, since returning from IR https://t.co/uHkqHxHiKh

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 4, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• The Odell Beckham situation was finally resolved this week, when the Cleveland Browns waived him, leaving Jarvis Landry as the team's obvious number-one receiver. Above, Jacob Gibbs made note of Landry's target rate in situations without Odell Beckham in the fold in Cleveland. For comparison, Gibbs notes in the quoted tweet, Landry's 2021 target rate since he returned from the Injured Reserve would rank as the highest in the league by a significant margin. Turn to Jarvis Landry as a potential league-winning acquisition at wide receiver for the rest of the season, as he sits alone atop the Browns' depth chart in an offense with something to prove through the air.
• Jacob Gibbs also notes in the quoted tweet that Diontae Johnson is getting peppered with targets at an unfathomable rate since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Johnson has been one of the league's highest-volume receivers since last season, despite his apparent issues with drops that got him benched for a brief stint during the 2020-2021 campaign. His absurd receiving volume in spite of these issues serves to prove how gifted Johnson is at getting open and how much trust that Ben Roethlisberger has in him as a pass-catcher. Make Diontae Johnson a priority in DFS lineups throughout the remainder of the season and inquire about his availability in season-long formats, where he will certainly be worth the steep price he may cost.

Chris Godwin in the last two games without Antonio Brown: 16-251-2 on a 30.2% target share. pic.twitter.com/utAB2Y4mWr

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 1, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Chris Godwin, much like Jarvis Landry and Diontae Johnson, has been a massive beneficiary of an injury elsewhere in his team's passing attack. As Adam Levitan noted on Twitter earlier this week, since Antonio Brown went down with an injury that will keep him out of action for a few more weeks, Chris Godwin's receiving volume has increased dramatically. Across the first six weeks of the 2021 season, Godwin averaged just over seven targets per game and had only two double-digit target games. In the two weeks since Brown's injury, Godwin has averaged 11.5 targets per game with double-digit targets in both outings. Although the Buccaneers do not play in Week 9, Chris Godwin should be the focus of any last-minute attempts to bolster season-long rosters via the trade market.

Adjusting for Schedules

Softest Schedules to Date

QB

Josh Allen (+2.1)
Kyler Murray (+1.9)
Justin Herbert (+1.7)

RB

David Montgomery (+3.5)
Damien Harris (+2.1)

WR

Buffalo WRs (+4.2)
Seattle WRs (+3.6)
Green Bay WRs (+2.6)

TE

Evan Engram (+1.5)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 3, 2021

Scott Barrett summarized which players have had the toughest and easiest schedules in the NFL for fantasy purposes through the first eight weeks of the 2021 season, which can help us adjust expectations throughout the second half of the year. Players with notably soft schedules may see their production decrease from here on out as a result of stiffer defensive competition, while players with tough schedules may see their production increase against weaker defenses.

Commentary and Action Items:

• Right away, Josh Allen and the Buffalo wide receivers stand out as a unit with a notably soft schedule thus far into the season. However, this is not a black-and-white situation where a blanket statement can be made that they will regress in tougher conditions over the course of the final 10 weeks of the season. Buffalo has played over half of their games in notably tough weather conditions, as they have battled strong winds or heavy rain on numerous occasions. The Bills' passing attack is not one that should be expected to regress throughout the remainder of the season.
• Elsewhere, Damien Harris stands out as a potential regression candidate over the second half of the season. Harris is a very one-dimensional fantasy producer, as he provides very little receiving production. Fortunately, Harris has faced a soft schedule over the course of the first eight weeks of the season, which has allowed him to thrive and maximize his value via his lone avenue of production. During the rest of the season, in tougher conditions that may not allow for Harris to tally carries at such an impressive rate, New England's number-one running back may fall short of the expectations he has set for himself thus far.
• Two units stand out on the opposite end of the spectrum as groups that may thrive as the season wears on: the Dallas and Las Vegas passing attacks.
  • Both Dallas and Las Vegas play their home games in a dome, which typically bolsters passing efficiency. Playing approximately half of their remaining games indoors will be especially valuable during the winter months when other teams are battling the cold, wind, and precipitation outdoors.
  • Both Dallas and Las Vegas have been impressive passing attacks to this point in the season, despite facing some of the toughest schedules in the NFL in terms of allowed passing production. Derek Carr ranks second in the NFL in total passing EPA, while Dak Prescott's per-attempt efficiency has been unbelievable when he has been healthy.
  • Consider buying high on receiving weapons in both the Cowboys' and Raiders' passing attacks, as both are poised to erupt against soft schedules in favorable playing environments over the second half of the season. Specific targets include, but are not limited to: Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Bryan Edwards on the Raiders and Dalton Schultz, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb on the Cowboys, if they are available. Another way to target these players is through DFS-- these players will also make for fantastic undervalued DFS targets in coming weeks if they are not available on the trade market in season-long leagues.

Running Back Funnels

% of PPR points allowed scored by opposing RBs...

NYJ 43.9%
DET 40.1%
PHI 40.1%
LAC 38.8%
SEA 37.7%

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DAL 28.1%
CAR 27.9%
TEN 27.4%
NO 26.8%
IND 24.3%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 1, 2021

Here, Rich Hribar succinctly summarizes which defenses are funneling production to opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air.

Commentary and Action Items:

• In this week's edition of The Sharp Report, Austin Ekeler was identified as the first building block for a sharp cash-game lineup on DraftKings in Week 9. He jumps off of the page thanks to his remarkable receiving volume, which is nearly unmatched by any other running back in the NFL, but he also gets a boost from Philadelphia's inability to contain opposing running backs. This season, they allow the third-highest percentage of total fantasy points to opposing running backs, ranking only behind the New York Jets and Detroit Lions. Week-in and week-out opposing running backs have gashed the Eagles' depleted defense, which explicitly prioritizes containing opposing passing attacks. Although they are not especially strong at defending the pass, Philadelphia's defense effectively tells opposing offenses to run the ball against them by putting few defenders inside the box at the line-of-scrimmage. Opposing offenses have taken what Philadelphia has given them all season, with great success, and the Chargers will likely do the same this weekend. Turn to Austin Ekeler as the number-one running back option on the Week 9 slate of games on DraftKings, where he may be one of the most popular selections on the entire slate.
• On the opposite side of the football, the Chargers' defense also ranks amongst the league's weakest defenses containing opposing running backs. Turn to Boston Scott as a potential GPP option at running back in game-stacks along with Austin Ekeler. Since Scott's playing time was increased due to an injury to Miles Sanders, he has tallied three rushing touchdowns in 1.5 games. Although his market share of total snaps and carries within Philadelphia's offense are not impressive, he has obvious upside around the end zone, especially in a soft matchup against the Chargers' susceptible run defense. Boston Scott's performance may correlate positively with Austin Ekeler's performance this weekend, making him a viable GPP target to pair with the aforementioned number-one running back on this weekend's main slate of games on DraftKings.
• In one of the toughest matchups of the weekend, the Denver Broncos' group of running backs are primed to struggle against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas runs one of the NFL's fastest and most prolific scoring attacks, which forces opponents to push the pace and light up the scoreboard to keep pace. Dallas's offensive style does not allow opposing offenses to grind out drives on the ground if they want to keep pace and remain competitive. Denver's offense is one of the league's weakest scoring attacks, and they will be in over their heads this weekend trying to outscore the Cowboys. The Broncos will likely have to deploy an uncomfortably-pass-heavy offensive game plan to keep up with the Cowboys, leaving Denver's running backs as afterthoughts. Expect both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to struggle against a Dallas defense that allows just 28.1-percent of total offensive fantasy production to opposing running backs.