The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $2,120 50-50 on DraftKings.
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Sharp Lineup
QB- Jalen Hurts
RB- Darrell Henderson
WR- Chris Godwin
WR- Michael Pittman
WR- Tee Higgins
TE- Dan Arnold
FLEX- DAndre Swift
D/ST- Buffalo Bills
Lineup Analysis
Leading up to Week 8, Jalen Hurts had been the league's most consistent fantasy producer at quarterback. Hurts's combination of stable rushing production and significant upside through the air, thanks to the team's pass-heavy offensive approach, has made him an elite fantasy option throughout the first two months of the season. Last weekend, Hurts and the Eagles went up to Detroit as 3.5-point favorites with the 4th-highest team total on the main slate of games. Philadelphia's increased team total and favorable playing environment inside the dome of Ford Field helped to make Jalen Hurts one of the strongest quarterback options on the slate once again in Week 8. Targeting the Detroit Lions' defense with top-tier fantasy producers has proven to be one of the most popular lineup-building strategies amongst sharp NFL DFS players this season.
Darrell Henderson and DAndre Swift
Darrell Henderson and DAndre Swift were featured in the Sharp Core in last week's article. Below, in italics, is the forward-looking analysis used in last week's article to project both players as sharp plays for Week 8.
- Sharp Core Feature #1: Darrell Henderson
- Expect Darrell Henderson to feature heavily in sharp NFL DFS lineups for a third consecutive week in Week 8. Despite a consistent bell-cow role that has caught the eye of sharp DFS players week-in and week-out, DraftKings lowered Henderson's price to $6,500 this weekend against the Houston Texans. Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Rams are expected to beat the Texans by over two touchdowns this weekend, which could foster a run-heavy game plan for the favored side. There is no reason to believe that Darrell Henderson's role in the Rams' backfield is going to change any time soon, making him an elite cash-game option this weekend at $6,500 with massive expected volume against one of the league's worst defenses.
- Sharp Core Feature #2: DAndre Swift
- Surprisingly, Jamaal Williams was ruled out early Sunday morning, which will force DAndre Swift to shoulder a heavier workload in Detroit's backfield. Swift already led the Detroit Lions in both rushing and receiving fantasy points scored this season, and now without Williams in the picture he is poised to erupt. Earlier this week, head coach Dan Campbell said that he wanted to get the ball into the hands of DAndre Swift more, and now the perfect opportunity has presented itself. Williams was previously the number-one complementary running back in Detroit's backfield. However, with Williams sidelined, the DAndre Swift show will be in full effect against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta's number-one pass-catcher, is temporarily stepping away from football. In his absence, the Atlanta Falcons need someone to step up on the outside, and Cordarrelle Patterson was the most affordable and reasonable candidate to fill that void in Week 8. At $6,200, Patterson provided upside through both receiving volume on the outside and rushing volume in the backfield. Patterson's fantasy production on a per-snap basis this season has been absurd. In recent weeks, increased playing time has made him a stronger and more sustainable fantasy producer. In Week 8, Patterson, who was expected to be deployed as a running back-wide receiver hybrid, saw a boost to his expected fantasy production because of a litany of reasons. Chief among them was the increased playing time, decreased competition for targets, and playing at home inside the dome of Mercedes Benz Stadium, which protects passing attacks from adverse weather conditions.
Michael Pittman
Over a four-week span from Week 2 to Week 5, Michael Pittman averaged 9.75 targets-per-game, showing signs of developing into one of the league's true alpha receivers. Then, after a brief dip in his receiving volume, where he totaled just seven targets across two games, Pittman saw his price on DraftKings fall to just $5,300 in Week 8. This season, sharp NFL DFS players have thrived by buying-low on highly talented players and pass-catchers who have recently seen their production dip to unsustainably low levels. Pittman was an especially strong candidate for this player archetype in Week 8 because this matchup took place inside the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium, which bolsters the efficiency of passing attacks. Additionally, this matchup between Tennessee and Indianapolis had the highest total of any game on the Week 8 main slate, with a total of over 50 points. The upside that Michael Pittman provided in Week 8 outpaced his salary-implied expectations at just $5,300 by a large margin.
Dan Arnold was the salary-saving tight end of choice for sharp NFL DFS players in Week 8. Arnold, who was suiting up for just his fourth game with the Jacksonville Jaguars, was priced at only $2,800 for last weekend's matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. Arnold commanded 8 and 5 targets, respectively, across the two games that he played over 33-percent of the Jaguars' offensive snaps, and he was projected to be a key part of the team's passing attack once again in Week 8. It is difficult to find stable and worthwhile volume at tight end, let alone at the modest price of just $2,800 on DraftKings, which made Dan Arnold jump off the page as the bargain bin player of choice for NFL DFS sharps in Week 8. Locking Arnold into lineups was essential for paying up for the trio of $6,200+ running backs that also stood out last weekend.
Week 9 Sharp Core
Build Week 9 cash game lineups around the Sharp Core. The players featured below are selected using the same processes and research that the sharpest NFL DFS players use. The results for these selections over the last 3+ seasons have been strong, with documented success across every position and price range.
This article will be updated later in the week as more information becomes available leading up to kickoff. Be sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will send a tweet to notify everyone whenever I update any of my articles here at FootballGuys.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Austin Ekeler
In Week 9, Austin Ekeler and the Los Angeles Chargers head to the East Coast to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Ekeler is one of the league's best pass-catching running backs, and in recent weeks his receiving floor of production has done a fantastic job of buoying his fantasy production. Since Week 2, Ekeler has posted at least 8.4 DraftKings points via receiving production alone in every game, tallying at least 4 receptions and 48 yards through the air in 5 out of 6 games. This weekend, he faces off against a Philadelphia defense whose weak link is its linebackers. Expect Austin Ekeler to humiliate Philadelphia's lackluster linebackers in coverage, providing a massive floor of production to go along with his rushing volume. At $7,900, Ekeler will not come cheap in Week 9, but he is one of the most likely players on the slate to pay off his price tag this coming weekend.
