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Top 3 Rushing Matchups
Kansas City vs Pittsburgh
The Chiefs will be short staffed this week as they will be without Clyde Edwards-Helaire who will miss this week with a shoulder injury. This was not a surprise for Edwards-Helaire who hasn’t played since December 26th, so Darrel Williams will once again get the start for the Chiefs. Williams was limited last week against the Broncos but appears to be full-go this week. Williams is a very similar back to Edwards-Helaire as they’re both backs who rely on elusiveness more than power as they are both on the smaller side of NFL running backs being under 220 pounds. The Chiefs have also involved Derrick Gore who has averaged 7.7 carries over his last three games and has shown that he is capable as well as he’s averaging 5.0 yards-per-carry on the season The offensive line for the Chiefs is the key to this game as Matt Bitonti has the Chiefs as the number one overall offensive line this season. Gore led the team in carries with 12 in Week 16 when these teams played although a lot of that was in garbage time as the Chiefs won the game 36-10 as the Chiefs ran the ball 35 times in that game.
The Steelers run defense almost kept this team out of the playoffs as Latavius Murray absolutely torched this defense rushing for 150 yards and a touchdown in route to a 249-yard rushing performance for the Ravens last week. The Steelers have been abysmal allowing 117 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs which was the second worst in the NFL this season. Linebackers were a significant problem for the Steelers as Devin Bush continues to be one of the worst linebackers in the NFL while Joe Schobert has consistently been on teams that have some of the worst run defenses in the NFL dating back to his time in Cleveland. The Steelers have allowed 100-yards or more to opposing running backs in six games this season and four of their last seven performances.
Buffalo vs New England
Devin Singletary has emerged as a piece that the Bills need in order to make a deep Super Bowl run this season. Over his last four games, Singletary has scored six touchdowns and ran for an average of 81 yards per game. Zack Moss has largely been relegated to a backup role as he has averaged just 4.3 carries per game over his last three games and has not topped 10 carries since Week 5. The way to beat the Patriots this season has been on the ground as they’re allowing the 10th most rushing yards on the season and the second-most of any team in the playoffs. The problem is that the Bills have struggled against the Patriots in their first two matchups as they have not topped 60 yards rushing.
The Patriots run defense has been a below-average unit this season that has struggled over the third of the season. Since Week 12, the Patriots have allowed four 100-yard rushers which while one was to Jonathan Taylor, the other three are not elite names in Duke Johnson Jr, Dontrell Hilliard, Donta Foreman. The issue for the Patriots has been their scheme as they are a team that sells out to stop the pass playing a Nickel heavy defense. In those schemes, it puts a significant amount of pressure sure on the defensive linemen and the Patriots defensive line is a below average unit as Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux have struggled in run-defense this year. This is by no means a terrible defense as most of those teams did not make the playoffs, but the Bills should be in a positive matchup this week to overcome their prior two performances against the Patriots.
New England at Buffalo
Damien Harris and the Patriots rushing attack have emerged as one of the better units in the NFL over the second half of the season and a big reason why they are in the playoffs. On the season, the Patriots are averaging 126.5 yards rushing per game which is the 8th best in the NFL and while Harris has been the primary back, the Patriots have more than capable backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and even Brandon Bolden who have had to play a role this season. Harris has shown that he is one of the best red zone running backs in the NFL as he has amassed 15 touchdowns on the season with 8 of them coming over the last five weeks.
The Bills’ run defense has fallen apart since the loss of Tre’Davious White and most of the cause has been the Patriots who have crushed this Bills run defense twice over the last six weeks. With the loss of White, the Bills have had to play more of a Nickel package which has put significant pressure on Tremaine Edmunds who has struggled at times making plays. Also, a problem has been the safety play of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer who are two of the best playmakers in the secondary but have been liabilities when it comes to consistently stopping the run as they’re forced to put an even bigger emphasis on the passing attack with the loss of the All Pro White. The Bills run defense will play a significant role in whether they are able to win this game as they have allowed an average of 162 yards rushing to the Patriots this season in their two meetings.
Bottom 3 Rushing Matchups
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
The Eagles received some surprising news this week as Miles Sanders will return and play in this game after having surgery just three weeks ago on his hand. How much Sanders will play still remains to be seen, but it will be a nice addition to the Eagles offense in a move that they need as Sanders has been their best back between the 20’s this season averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry although surprisingly has not scored a touchdown on the year as most of that work has gone to Boston Scott who should continue to play as the complimentary or even the primary role depending on the health of Sanders. Scott has been serviceable albeit he is a downhill runner who often stays between the tackles which is somewhat surprising given his 5’6 stature, but he’s able to find crevices between the defense utilizing his small frame.
The Buccaneers run defense continues to be a premiere unit in the NFL this season. On the season, they allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs at just 63 yards per game as they only allowed one 100-yard rusher all season as Khalil Herbert hit the mark exactly at 100 yards back in Week 7. In their first meeting, the Eagles only ran the ball 9 times with Miles Sanders and no other running back had a carry, but Jalen Hurts did have 44 yards on 10 carries against this team which amounted to 100 yards total as a team. This is a defense that has one of the biggest defensive lines in the NFL led by defensive tackle Vita Vea along with William Gholston and Ndamakong Suh all of whom weigh over 300 pounds. If there has been one issue it has been Devin White who has found himself consistently out of position as the once promising linebacker has had a difficult season this year.
Dallas vs San Francisco
The Cowboys’ rushing attack has been a bit of a mystery this season as it has seemingly been a tale of two halves as the first half of the season, Ezekiel Elliott was averaging 77.8 yards over his first eight games and since then is averaging just 42 yards over his last 9 games of the seasons. The good news here is that of the nine games in the second half, he is coming off of his best performance last week as he had 18 carries for 87 yards. Elliott has seemingly been dealing with some health issues so to get 18 carries in a game that was a nice to have for the Cowboys instead of a must have was encouraging for them moving forward. Also, good news for the Cowboys is that they should get Tyron Smith back after he has played just one game over his last four which was back in Week 17. This is an offensive line that is still one of the best in football when healthy, but health has been an issue as La’el Collins missed most of the first half of the year while Tyron Smith has been limited in the second half as has guard Connor Williams so this should be one of the few games all season that they are at full strength.
The 49ers’ run defense has been peaking at the right time as while they’ve been good all season, they’ve been great since Week 10. This is a defense that has not allowed a running back to top 60 yards since Week 10 as their defensive front seven continues to be one of the best in football. Led by Nick Bosa, the defensive line is also made up of space eater D.J. Jones and Arik Armstead both of which are tremendous run stoppers. This is a linebacker unit that has been trying to find a second linebacker outside of Fred Warner and they were fortunate that Dre Greenlaw has returned from an injury that has kept him out most of the season which will be a welcomed addition back for the 49ers this week after Greenlaw played a full game last week making it through without issue.
San Francisco at Dallas
The 49ers running back situation has been a bit of a back and forth due to injury throughout the season but appears to be stabilizing now that Elijah Mitchell has logged two consecutive healthy games. Mitchell is the clear number one for the 49ers and has been for most of the season after earning the job after Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert were injured in the offseason and in Week 1. Mitchell has been great this season averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry and since coming back from his own injury has 21 carries in each of his last two games. Deebo Samuel still is the change of pace running back in this offense as he has between 5 and 8 carries in each of his last 8 games. Samuel has provided a nice spark particularly in the red zone as he has 8 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Cowboys’ defense is a good defense, but not a great one as most of the elite defenses are not playing on this shortened week. On the season, they’re allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, but most of that has been due to the lack of touchdowns that they have allowed to the running back position as they are allowing 87 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs which is the 12th best in the NFL this season. This team is led by rookie Micah Parsons who has been one of the best linebackers in the NFL this season and Demarcus Lawrence who has been one of the best defensive lineman. The Cowboys have only allowed two 100-yard rushers on the season as Javonte Williams and Damien Harris were able to do it back in Week 6 and Week 9. If there is one thing to keep an eye on it is how the Cowboys replace Keanu Neal who will miss this game due to chest and elbow injuries.