Click here for QBs who will beat their dynasty cost in 2021.
One of the most exploitable inefficiencies in dynasty fantasy football is the difference between where players are selected in startup drafts and their 2021 projection. High-priced players are more long-term bets, so their 2021 projection is less significant than lower-priced players with much lower long-term hit rates. For the later picks, in particular, players projected to outscore their draft position should be targeted. Below are six quarterbacks we project to underproduce their dynasty draft position over the past 30 days.
Deshaun Watson (Dynasty ADP: QB12, Our 2021 Projection: QB33)
The Deshaun Watson situation is complex, and our projections are bearish on his 2021 outlook, projecting only 8 games. With Watson not practicing, his legal situation and associated suspensions up in the air, and his potential trade rumor swirling, getting any production out of Watson in 2021 feels like a success. Watson’s cost is currently all about future production, with his startup cost of QB12 21 spots worse than his QB33 projection.
Watson is 4th all-time in yards per attempt (8.3), behind only Otto Graham (9.0), Sid Luckman (8.4), and Patrick Mahomes II (8.4). If you are looking at production, Watson is a good future bet, particularly that he can outproduce incoming rookies Trey Lance and Justin Fields from 2022 onward. If you are looking at the future, with the possibility of a lost 2021 season, Watson is a high upside bet.
There is a production risk and moral consideration around selecting Watson, but his production at cost can shift your dynasty league when he plays.
Recent trades involving Watson:
- Watson for 1.08
- Watson for a 2022 2nd
- Watson for Derrick Henry
Trey Lance (Dynasty ADP: QB10, Our 2021 Projection: QB28)
Trey Lance has been the subject of positive reports throughout training camp and has seen his value jump into the second round of Superflex startup drafts and up to QB10. Our projections are in line with Kyle Shanahan’s statements that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the week one starter, by projecting only 11.8 games for Lance.
Lance may be a later season shot in the arm but beware of depending on him early in the season if making decisions about the direction of your team. With a highlight 80-yard touchdown in the first preseason game, Lance’s value will likely rise in the coming days.
Recent trades involving Lance include:
- Trey Lance and Mac Jones for Lamar Jackson, Dyami Brown, and a 2022 2nd
- Trey Lance for two 2022 1sts
- Trey Lance and a 2022 2nd for Mac Jones, Cam Newton, Salvon Ahmed, Myles Gaskin, and a 2022 1st
Trevor Lawrence (Dynasty ADP: QB7, Our 2021 Projection: QB15)
Trevor Lawrence is amongst the most expensive rookies in dynasty history, perhaps behind only Saquon Barkley. Lawrence is QB8 in Superflex drafts and is projected as QB15 in our consensus projection. His projected yards per attempt (7.27) would be the 13th best for a rookie quarterback with 200 passing attempts this century, and his projected attempts would be the 8th highest for a rookie since 2000.
Lawrence is projected as a high floor player, but if Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields all start the entire season, the odds are one will outproduce Lawrence. At his cost, ahead of Russell Wilson for instance, Lawrence is a big risk given his projection.
Joe Burrow (Dynasty ADP: QB8, Our 2021 Projection: QB13)
Joe Burrow may be the ultimate high-risk pick of the quarterback position. Coming off a catastrophic knee injury that cut his rookie season short, Burrow has struggled in camp, while JaMarr Chase has had difficulty adjusting to the NFL. Add in the reports the offensive line has not improved, and things could be pointing in a bad direction heading into 2021.
Burrow’s closest comps in experience, current ADP, and prior season point per game averaged a QB15.3 with an offseason ADP QB9.3 the following offseason. When you include last season’s YPA (6.7), his comps fall to an average finish of 15.9 and an ADP of 9.5. Our projections like Burrow better than his comps, but keep in mind a disappointing season could create a coaching change and uncertainty in price next offseason.
Carson Wentz (Dynasty ADP: QB22, Our 2021 Projection: QB25)
Our projection on Carson Wentz includes 15.5 games as we are collectively optimistic he returns on the short timeline of his recovery from foot surgery. Wentz’s projection includes 531.6 passing attempts which would rank 24th at the position, and 27th in yards per attempt (7.17 yards per attempt) out of 34 quarterbacks we project with 200 attempts. Even with his low cost of QB22, this type of outcome would likely result in a drop in dynasty valuation. At his cost, there is an upside, but our projection includes an improvement of more than a yard per attempt over his 2020 yards per attempt (6.0). Given our projection's favorable increase in yards per attempt that still projects Wentz at QB25, Wentz should be an avoid player.
If you are looking to exit, recent trades include:
- Carson Wentz for Derek Carr
- Carson Wentz and 2022 2nd for 2022 1st
- Carson Wentz and Jerry Jeudy for Kirk Cousins
Justin Herbert (Dynasty ADP: QB5.5, Our 2021 Projection: QB8)
Justin Herbert had a great rookie season, jumping to QB5.5 in median draft position in the past month. Herbert’s projection of QB8 lags his cost but would be a success. Quarterbacks with two prior hits massively outperform quarterbacks with one-hit, so a top 12 finish for Herbert in 2021 should correspond to an increase in his dynasty ranking.