The NFL preseason is an avalanche of new information. We have been in our caves of slumber since the NFL Draft for major player value movement. Now, we get breadcrumbs of data from NFL teams - hints of players, depth charts, and playing time to start the season:
Rookie Quarterbacks
Heading into Week 1, here is the landscape of rookie quarterbacks:
Trevor Lawrence, the 1.01 NFL Draft pick and anointed as such since entering college at Clemson, perked up in the final game of the preseason with a strong showing. While losing Round 1 pick Travis Etienne is a potential loss this season, the supporting cast of weapons is still sturdy for Lawrence with D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, and James Robinson of note. 1.01 NFL Draft picks hit for top-12 seasons 77% of the time, but Year 1 is a rare occurrence, and they average a finish in the QB20-25 range.
Zach Wilson, like Lawrence, is projected to start Week 1, and there was minimal suspense in the decision. Wilson has the play-making arm talent and mobility to dazzle. The early-built connection with Corey Davis is a positive sign from the preseason, including the return of Jamison Crowder and the drafting of Elijah Moore. Historically, the No.2 overall selection through the mid-first round for drafted quarterbacks has similar fantasy success rates.
Trey Lance projects as the least likely to start early in the season among the notable rookie quarterbacks. Being inserted with various packages has been the plan out of 49ers camp and San Francisco projects as a quality team, which can certainly push towards the postseason with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Lance has an elite rushing profile and, even with growing pains as a passer, can be the first strong fantasy producer of this year's class at the position once starting.
Justin Fields showed his rushing upside in the preseason and showed some promise as a passer despite not playing with the Bears' best weapons. Andy Dalton is set to start the season, but the leash is likely short for the veteran. Expect to see Fields sooner rather than later outside of Dalton leading the Bears to an early winning record. Like Lance, Fields can be a fantasy starter even without strong passing panache early in his career as one of the stronger rushers of the entire positional landscape.
Mac Jones' path to start was cleared with Cam Newton's release promptly before the season. Jones had an excellent preseason, showing accuracy, timing, and creating a rhythm for the Patriots' passing game. The weapons are improved from a year ago with Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith notable additions from New England's make-shift offense through the air. Jones' rushing upside is minimal and even if a success as a passer, there is a potential disconnect between being on a quality trajectory as an NFL quarterback compared to a meaningful fantasy option outside of QB-premium formats.
Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, and Davis Mills, all drafted in the same five-pick zone of Day 2, are the best of the rest for the rookies. Mond and Trask are firmly affixed behind clear starters, and Trask could be even more of a 2022 projection for any chance of starts with Blaine Gabbert working as the QB2 in the preseason for the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Mills has a shot to start as a rookie even without injury with Deshaun Watson in limbo for the season and not projected to play anytime soon this season, while Tyrod Taylor has thrown just 36 passes over the past two seasons combined. Taylor is far from a strong bet to start the entire season for a Houston team more likely to draft in the top-five than competing for a playoff spot.
Rookie Running Backs
The class lacked an elite prospect like Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley in recent years, but two, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, collected Round 1 pedigree, and Javonte Williams went in the early second round. Etienne is already out until 2022 with an injury, but his Year 1 opportunity was a question mark with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde on the depth chart.
- Najee Harris is the lone projected Week 1 starter of the rookie class. There is some question with the Steelers' offensive line, but Harris represents a substantial upgrade over the depth chart in 2020 and a workhorse profile. Harris has a reasonable chance for a top-24 season on opportunity alone, and 11% of Round 1 running backs hit for a top-12 season in Year 1 alone.
Injury-Away Options
- Javonte Williams: High-upside option behind Melvin Gordon. Williams has a high-volume profile with only Mike Boone (recovering from injury) a potential challenger if Gordon were out.
- Trey Sermon: Another high-upside option in a potent San Francisco run game. Raheem Mostert has yet to stay healthy for long with a workload in the NFL, and Sermon was a trade-up target for the 49ers with Day 2 pedigree. Sermon is poised to see decent weekly touches even with Mostert in the lineup.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: The Patriots dealt away Sony Michel, and Stevenson is the lone back of size behind starter Damien Harris. Stevenson showed well in the preseason, and no Cam Newton is poised to aid the rushing upside for Patriots running backs.
- Chuba Hubbard: The recent addition of Royce Freeman clouds the RB2/3 spots in Carolina somewhat, but Freeman has yet to live up to pre-NFL Draft expectations over his early years in Denver. Mike Davis showed the upside of a Christian McCaffrey backup last season.
Preseason Lessons
Being flexible with your final dynasty roster spots is paramount. Running backs are the optimal stashes as they are high-upside (production) and high-leverage (trade assets) if garnering the perfect storm of depth chart standing and/or an injury in front of them in-season. However, the twists and turns require a transient mentality as a dynasty GM to shrug off injuries and depth chart moves that do not go your way in August. For example, James Robinson, Gus Edwards, and Darrell Henderson are all more clarified starts to open the season compared to less than a month ago due to injuries.
There have already been shifts behind current NFL starters like Darrynton Evans going to IR to start the season and Jeremy McNichols going from dynasty waiver wires to a must-roster back heading into Week 1. Alex Collins has been revived in Seattle and current RB2, Rashaad Penny, has yet to stay healthy for long in the NFL. TySon Williams and Justice Hill have turned from fantasy invisible to hot waiver pickups with J.K. Dobbins out for the season. Peyton Barber's release by Washington and Jaret Patterson's strong preseason has Patterson looking like a benefactor if Antonio Gibson were injured. In addition to Houston and the Jets' depth charts being completely up in the air for even the market share for the Week 1 starter through RB3.
The key is being flexible with these roster spots and sensitive to cost. Instead of paying Round 2 rookie picks for flashy backups in the trade market or waiting for them to announce themselves as short-term (or longer) starting options in-season, shop in the $1 waiver wire bin and be proactive. If you picked up plenty of Peyton Barber shares three weeks ago for $1, there was a minimal investment, and a dynasty GM can make many of these low-cost 'bets' in August through December. Being wrong about Peyton Barber (and he is the RB3 for the Raiders for the record, albeit behind an RB2 who is more of a workhorse profile than J.D. McKissic in Washington) is not a bad thing. It is about clarity quickly, especially in the pivotal mid-August through mid-September zone.
Being wrong about a Peyton Barber type paves the way for Jaret Patterson and new names to emerge, like Tony Jones Jr. making the Saints roster and Devonta Freeman being a veteran cut from the depth chart and an available dynasty roster spot in which to stash the next situational uptick possibility.
The final words before the season begins is to be proactive with waiver money (and claims) and, more on this in the next few installments of New Reality, do not be overly sticky with the short-term boosts of the situation when they are valued strongly in the dynasty trade market in-season.
Here's to a great 2021 fantasy season in front of us, discovering what we did not know or project for the eight months of the offseason and continuing to enjoy this immersive hobby that enhances the sport we love!